Observations while hunting for a Ryan rookie....

[deweyinthehall]

I'm down to needing one card for my '68 set, and there can be no doubt about which on it is.

What amazes me about what I've seen during my hunt for #177 is:

1) The number of sellers who SERIOUSLY over estimate the condition of their card.
2) The sheer number of cards there are for sale. I have it on my saved searches and every day at least a dozen pop up. At any given time an eBay search returns about 500 of them - some, yes, are reprints or other mistakes - but still there must be 450+ genuine articles out there, and a lot are in PSA 6 or equivalent or better.

It strikes me that with this sort of supply, the prices wouldn't be quite as high as they are.

Are most buyers looking to simply get one they think they can resell for more the next week?

As frustrating as it is, it's also very curious.

I remember buying my first Ryan rookie in about 2000, raw and in EXMT+ for $200 - boy, those were the days.

P.S. Which grading companies tend to be most conservative? I'm looking at an SGC 3 right now that looks for all the world like it should have been a 5. Is SGC more conservative? I've only ever purchased PSA slabs, and then only a very few.

[jchcollins]

Yes, they aren’t rare by any stretch of the imagination. I’d be very hesitant to buy that card raw without being able to hold it first due to the number of raw sellers who don’t know what they are doing with grading. Anymore SGC is pretty conservative, yes. They have become centering fanatics too.


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[Dandor]

Originally Posted by deweyinthehall

I'm down to needing one card for my '68 set, and there can be no doubt about which on it is.

What amazes me about what I've seen during my hunt for #177 is:

1) The number of sellers who SERIOUSLY over estimate the condition of their card.
2) The sheer number of cards there are for sale. I have it on my saved searches and every day at least a dozen pop up. At any given time an eBay search returns about 500 of them - some, yes, are reprints or other mistakes - but still there must be 450+ genuine articles out there, and a lot are in PSA 6 or equivalent or better.

It strikes me that with this sort of supply, the prices wouldn't be quite as high as they are.

Are most buyers looking to simply get one they think they can resell for more the next week?

As frustrating as it is, it's also very curious.

I remember buying my first Ryan rookie in about 2000, raw and in EXMT+ for $200 - boy, those were the days.

P.S. Which grading companies tend to be most conservative? I'm looking at an SGC 3 right now that looks for all the world like it should have been a 5. Is SGC more conservative? I've only ever purchased PSA slabs, and then only a very few.

I am looking for this card as well, but I am being super patient until I find one at the price I want to pay. A lot of the flippers have gotten into vintage after a lot of modern and junk wax graded cards crashed. I have been trying to put together all of Hank Aaron's base cards together and everything is super inflated right now. I am hardly buying these days unless I see a lower graded card that is perfectly centered for a great price.

SGC right now tends to be the toughest grader for vintage right now and IMO it isn't even close. SGC hammers centering and recently they have been hammering every aspect of the card. However, if it is a SGC 3 and looks great, there are probably surface wrinkles or a surface issue that you can't see through an image. This wouldn't stop me though if the card was perfectly centered at a great price.

Below is an image of a Bench rookie I recently bought from BO forums. The card looks much better than most PSA 7's I was looking at buying. I have been only looking at SGC's recently since the price is cheaper and the cards in the slabs look better for the same grade the majority of the time for new SGC slabs.

[Lucas00]

I find the milton bradley version to be far more scarce vs his regular ‘68. Yet for some reason they go for about the same price as his regular’68. If you are ok counting it as part of the ‘68 topps set I think its one of the best buys there is right now.

[ALR-bishop]

https://goldin.co/item/1968-topps-17...-10-cardsi6ti9

[Exhibitman]

I am missing only the RC for my Ryan run but I just cannot bring myself to pay the price. I wouldn't have a Bench RC either except that I bought a collection a few years ago that had one in it.

[toppcat]

It's hard to find without a tilt. Same with the 67 Seaver.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by toppcat

It's hard to find without a tilt. Same with the 67 Seaver.

From both a baseball and a baseball card perspective, it still makes no sense to me that the Ryan RC is worth more than the '67 Seaver. Seaver is pretty demonstrably the better pitcher, but I guess people are enthralled still by all the K's and no-hitters that Ryan's reputation rests on. The '67 Seaver is the much tougher card, being a legit rarity as a 7th series single print - while the Ryan is a pretty middle of the road 2nd series card in 1968. I mean I get it, but...

[jchcollins]

I don’t think anyone is crapping on Nolan Ryan.

His best selling point is that what he did is totally unique. There’s not really any comps for him in terms of other pitchers. He’s a first ballot HOF’er by a mile, even with his flaws. But again, just interesting how baseball greatness and baseball card greatness aren’t necessarily the same thing. Fans get all juiced up over strikeouts and no-hitters, but that’s not at all the best measure of how effective a pitcher is. Yeah, Seaver had nowhere near Ryan’s longevity; nobody did. But even on his career, he has the better winning percentage, ERA, WHIP, far fewer BB, significantly higher WAR, etc. etc. - standing tall in literally every other category than Ryan except strikeouts and no-hitters. It’s not so much saying anything bad about Ryan, as it is illustrating how much Seaver and others like him are underrated.

True in the card world pitchers are nowhere near as popular as hitters. I’m just tired of the notion with postwar vintage that Ryan and Koufax are the only pitchers there are room for. It’s not true, but it certainly would be easy to get that impression.


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[jchcollins]

Seaver’s is a pain to find (by Topps standards, there is no such thing as a rare basic Topps card).

True. I shouldn’t have said “rarity”. Neither card is difficult to find today if you’ve got the coin. (Neither is a ‘52 Topps Mantle for that matter…) We've gone from the idea of "rare" meaning a card you literally could not find at a show in say the late 70's, to it simply meaning price prohibitive. Hell, is there a card you can't have within a week in 2021 if money is no object? Maybe a Wagner. I digress...

Seavers particularly in high grade seem to abound on eBay in the last few years. But certainly when these cards were coming out of packs 50+ years ago, the Ryan would have been an easier pull.


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[deweyinthehall]

And when we think of Ryan, we can't left it unsaid that he is involved in one of the best baseball highlight films of all time when he gave a young and naive Robin Ventura what for.

[profholt82]

Ha! I suppose I got a bit defensive over old Mr. Ryan. Just a big fan of his. I was fortunate enough to see him pitch at Tiger Stadium in the early 90s when the Rangers visited Detroit. Other than him getting a bunch of strikeouts, my most vivid memory of that game was when Juan Gonzalez hit a towering foul ball that landed on the roof above our heads in right field. I can still hear that clang. Haha
Also, I recall being disappointed that Julio Franco didn't play. While I was a Tigers fan first and foremost, what kid didn't love seeing Franco's unique batting stance?

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by deweyinthehall

And when we think of Ryan, we can't left it unsaid that he is involved in one of the best baseball highlight films of all time when he gave a young and naive Robin Ventura what for.

Most famous "noogies" of all time

[Exhibitman]

We are all just primates and we naturally are drawn to the alpha males. In all sports that manifests in the allure of physical power. The 500 foot home run, the slam dunk, a slapshot goal, a knockout. All of the 'overrated' athletes have power in common. My favorite basketball player is Wilt Chamberlain. He holds most of the scoring records in the NBA and is the greatest force of all time by a staggering margin. First in career rebounding % (him and Russell are 25% better than the next leaders). Led the league in Win Shares 8 straight years and is #2 alltime (Russell is 20th). #2 alltime in scoring %. He's Goliath come to life. We had a big debate on the boxing page over Tyson. There are probably 8-10 heavyweights with better resumes than Tyson (he lost to two guys who are better than him by all objective measures, Holyfield and Lewis) yet his card valuations are second to Ali. It's the power. All the collectors who came of age during his reign remember the savage KOs (against mostly tomato cans, but that doesn't seem to bother them). Joe Louis, who was a much better fighter (Louis and Ali are neck and neck for GOAT), is far behind Ali and Tyson in collecting terms. One of the iconic postwar cards is Jim Brown's RC. He was the personification of a smashmouth fullback who led the league in rushing every year of his career except one and still is the alltime record holder for yards per game. At his best he just ran through defenders. There are objectively better backs but none with the aura he has.

When he was on Ryan was the most dominant pitcher I ever saw. I watched him throw a complete game shutout (one of 61 he had) and never saw a pitcher make an entire team look amateurish like that. That ability to dominate your foe is manna to our monkey-minds and makes legends.

I still need the damn rookie card.

[jayshum]

For anyone into WAR, these are the numbers for the pitchers mentioned in the thread as well as some others from the same time period. Seaver is far and away the highest. I didn't realize Blyleven would be that high or that Palmer would be that low.

Seaver 109.9
Phil Niekro 95.9
Blyleven 94.5
Carlton 90.2
Perry 90.0
Jenkins 84.1
Gibson 89.1
Ryan 81.3
Rick Reuschel 69.5
Palmer 68.5
Sutton 66.7

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I still need the damn rookie card.

I have (had...) the full Nolan run, but just sold my '69 in a PSA 5 because I needed the money for something else and decided I could live later with a lower grade raw version of that card. For whatever reason I don't love it, it's probably my least favorite of the early Ryans. Blasphemy? Even a year ago I probably would have thought so.

[deweyinthehall]

Another 12 new ones listed today on eBay - to go with the dozen from yesterday and the day before, and the roughly 10 or so daily since I started this post - most in nice shape or better, and far too many laughably overpriced in BIN auctions, others less so.

This hunt is maddening - I love Ryan, one the greatest ever, all true - but man oh man there's a glut on the market now. I could see paying more than I'd like for a Seaver or Rose rookie - those are much rarer, but this is ridiculous!

[Bigdaddy]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

We are all just primates and we naturally are drawn to the alpha males. In all sports that manifests in the allure of physical power. The 500 foot home run, the slam dunk, a slapshot goal, a knockout. All of the 'overrated' athletes have power in common. My favorite basketball player is Wilt Chamberlain. He holds most of the scoring records in the NBA and is the greatest force of all time by a staggering margin. First in career rebounding % (him and Russell are 25% better than the next leaders). Led the league in Win Shares 8 straight years and is #2 alltime (Russell is 20th). #2 alltime in scoring %. He's Goliath come to life. We had a big debate on the boxing page over Tyson. There are probably 8-10 heavyweights with better resumes than Tyson (he lost to two guys who are better than him by all objective measures, Holyfield and Lewis) yet his card valuations are second to Ali. It's the power. All the collectors who came of age during his reign remember the savage KOs (against mostly tomato cans, but that doesn't seem to bother them). Joe Louis, who was a much better fighter (Louis and Ali are neck and neck for GOAT), is far behind Ali and Tyson in collecting terms. One of the iconic postwar cards is Jim Brown's RC. He was the personification of a smashmouth fullback who led the league in rushing every year of his career except one and still is the alltime record holder for yards per game. At his best he just ran through defenders. There are objectively better backs but none with the aura he has.

When he was on Ryan was the most dominant pitcher I ever saw. I watched him throw a complete game shutout (one of 61 he had) and never saw a pitcher make an entire team look amateurish like that. That ability to dominate your foe is manna to our monkey-minds and makes legends.

I still need the damn rookie card.

Well said and I agree 100%. That's why we also like Mickey and Sandy. Power. Even though Mick struck out a gazillion times and Sandy took a few seasons to learn how to pitch. You came out to the park to see them perform more than all the other players on the field put together. The same for Bo Jackson.

We dig the long ball - and the strikout and knockout. More so than the stolen base, double play or winning a fight on points.