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Operationalizing rarity
I'm wondering what number of copies of a card could exist before you would not label it rare. You can of course use ever more fine-grained distinctions and arrive at a reductio ad absurdum in which every baseball card in the world is unique, but if you were only getting as specific as Pose X of Player Y from Set Z -- would it be rare if there were only 1,000 copies of that card? Only 100? Only 10?
If you're inclined to say, well it depends on the set, and 100 total copies isn't rare for a single N172 pose but it is for a T206, fine. What I'm really wondering is what is the absolute smallest number for any card in any set that you think should disqualify it from being properly regarded as rare. I'm going to say 7. I think if there are 7 or more copies of a card you should generally see one of them come up for sale at least every few years. If there are fewer than 4 copies of the card you can't count on seeing it come up for sale at all in the next decade. The mid-single digits are sort of a collecting sweet spot for maximizing the excitement:frustration ratio. I don't get excited about seeing an auction listing for a card, even one that I really want, if I'm expecting to see another copy pop up a few weeks later; but if it's a card I've been looking for and haven't seen listed in years, the moment I find the auction listing is more exciting than the moment I actually get the card in the mail (assuming I've won the auction, which I usually don't). Anyway, my answer is 7. |
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I am going with 50
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I'd say 10 or less is truly rare. More than 10 but less than 50 is scarce.
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Does demand factor into the calculus at all? If no one wants an item, having 5 of them in the wild doesn't really feel like it's rare. Whereas if there are 50 but everyone wants one, it can sure seem rare.
And what about deliberate manufactured rarity? Some of these numbered modern pieces may be 1 of 5, but I'm not convinced that really makes it rare, particularly if there are hundreds or thousands of similar pieces that are 1 of 5.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel Last edited by raulus; 06-23-2023 at 10:08 AM. |
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I would say single digit of a specific card. To me variations are a different card.
So 9 or less is rare 5 or less is extremely rare But hopefully if it is rare it belongs to a member of this board except for Ruth or Jackson those need to be mine. Lol
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Thanks all Jeff Kuhr https://www.flickr.com/photos/144250058@N05/ Looking for 1920 Heading Home Ruth Cards 1917-20 Felix Mendelssohn Babe Ruth 1921 Frederick Foto Ruth Joe Jackson Cards 1916 Advertising Backs 1910 Old Mills Joe Jackson 1914 Boston Garter Joe Jackson 1915 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson 1911 Pinkerton Joe Jackson Shoeless Joe Jackson Autograph Last edited by mrreality68; 06-23-2023 at 10:20 AM. |
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For the sake of your actual question, I would say for cards pre-1995 that the number is higher than 10. Maybe 25; maybe 50. This is because once you fall below 10, certainly below 5, you're almost talking about one of a kind. Rare to me doesn't mean one of a kind. I think once we move into the late 1990s, manufactured rarity would reduce the total number. I'm not impressed seeing the same photo over and over again in different colors. I don't collect the rainbow as many modern collectors do. I would say 5 or 10 from 1995-present would be rare. Maybe even 1/1. Think of how many super refractors exist for each player. If a player like Acuna has a 20 year career, how many 1/1 cards will he eventually have? 200? 300? More? Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk
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+1
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This is about what I would call it, somewhere between 25-50. I am surprised the answers so far are largely 10 and below; considering what I see routinely referred to as rare around here.
Valuable is separate from rare; rare only measures supply. |
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I wrote an article about rarity (creatively entitled "Rare..."). My definition of absolute rarity was few of the item in existence, hard to find in any condition at any time.
Absolute rarity is wonderful and complicated all at the same time. On the one hand, when you have a truly rare item, you have something truly special. Of course, the flip side is that the card is going to be a real bitch to replace, if you can replace it at all, should you sell or trade it away. I am not sure I can pick a hard cut-off for absolute rarity, though. I mean if there are 21 examples of a card instead of 20, is it no longer rare? That seems to be an absurdly reductionist way of looking at it. I guess for me the bottom line is that rarity is like obscenity: i can't tell you precisely what it is but I know it when I see it.
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 06-23-2023 at 11:41 AM. |
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I think it is more than the absolute number that exist; it is the absolute number that are circulating. If there are 20 copies of a card that exist but 15 of those are in public collections like the HOF, Burdick Collection, Wharton Tigre Collection, various library collections, etc then the card is rare. If all 20 copies are floating around then it is just scarce.
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#12
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The most important card in the hobby, the 52 Mantle, is neither scarce nor rare.
Never understood that. Last edited by Snapolit1; 06-23-2023 at 02:38 PM. |
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#14
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It depends on what we are talking about. If it's a type card to start with, then maybe 5 or less is rare, to me.
If it is from a mainstream set, that number can jump greatly. Then, there are other aspects of rarity, such as condition rarity. I hear there are more, vintage high grade cards being made every day....Tip- buy cards with bigger borders.
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Leon Luckey |
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