PSA 10's vs PSA 9's

[bcbgcbrcb]

This is not a new revelation in any way, but I believe that the difference in modern/ultra-modern card values between PSA 10's and PSA 9's has gotten to the point of absolute insanity. It is common practice these days for a 10 to sell for 10X-20X what a 9 sells for of the same card. As many youtuber's have demonstrated by cropping out the slab from the two card images, it is nearly impossible to tell the difference between two cards at that grade level. Correct me if I'm wrong but this anomaly seems to have developed rapidly during the COVID boom and continues on to today.

What are your thoughts on the future of this trend? Will collectors wise up at some point and realize it's not worth it to pay 10X to 20X for a holder with a 10 on it instead of a 9 for a card in virtually the same condition? Or will this trend continue and only see the disparity get greater over time? Of course, I realize that the responses here are going to be skewed by whether you are or are not a PSA 10 collector but many on the board here probably don't have a pony in this race and will give a completely objective opinion.

[Mike D.]

I buy mostly 9's because I can't see paying the premium. The only time this isn't the case is if I find a very good deal for a 10, or if the majority of graded copies of a particular card are in PSA 10 slabs.

[G1911]

I can't fathom paying 10X for a card because some corporation has told me it's a 10 instead of a 9. I can't even fathom paying 1.1X because a company has given its opinion that this card is Y grade. If I was blind maybe it would be useful.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's stupid if you collect cards. It's not so stupid if you invest in flips. All depends on what you're doing and why.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's stupid if you collect cards. It's not so stupid if you invest in flips. All depends on what you're doing and why.

I would posit that putting your money into the momentary opinion of a random person of unknown credentials backed by a company with a long, long, long history of being wrong (at absolute best) is stupid even if you aren't a collector.

[bk400]

Perhaps I am a cynic, but I always wondered whether people submitting modern cards for grading would just slip an Andrew Jackson or two into the Card Saver as a gratuity for the grader. Being a returnee to the hobby, I can't say I'm an expert, but from what I can tell, the line between a 9 and a 10 for modern cards can be so slight and the difference in resale value so large that I cannot imagine that the graders themselves aren't capturing some of the value. Or at least tempted to.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I would posit that putting your money into the momentary opinion of a random person of unknown credentials backed by a company with a long, long, long history of being wrong (at absolute best) is stupid even if you aren't a collector.

In flip investing the card is irrelevant unless the grade is just egregiously wrong. It's a commodity now.

[Rad_Hazard]

Originally Posted by G1911

I can't fathom paying 10X for a card because some corporation has told me it's a 10 instead of a 9. I can't even fathom paying 1.1X because a company has given its opinion that this card is Y grade. If I was blind maybe it would be useful.

For me it all depends on the card and why I'm collecting it. In this example, the 9 is horribly off-centered and the 10 is perfect. Sometimes even 10's are badly centered so I'll go for a 9.

In the case of the 89 Griffey in particular, I own a 9 because it's the best centering I could find.

[DocScoot]

Funny you listed the 89 Griffey as the example, I agree this is one where the grading has become beyond crazy, not sure if the price gap between 9 and 10 drives crazy grading criteria or vice versa. I just spent way too much money having about a dozen of these graded from my childhood collection. I had maybe 25, picked the dozen that I thought had a chance of grading a 10, if not I would have been happy with a 9. I've always been pretty OCD so these went right from pack to penny sleeve and top loader in 1989. Maybe half of those were perfectly centered front and back to my eye, with complete holograms. The hologram is what throws off the grade on a ton of these, no way to even get a 9 with an incomplete hologram anymore (didn't used to be the case judging from a lot of the 9s I see on eBay). Long story short, they all came back 7/8. Some of the 7s are clearly better than the 8s. One of the 8s has a folded over corner in the slab, clear damage during encapsulation. My guess is they're just beyond sick of seeing this card at PSA (I believe there are close to 100,000 of these registered) and largely are just hate grading these now with no care taken. Definitely would like my money back on the grading, but live and learn!

[packs]

Give me a PSA 9 any day of the week. I only buy 10's if they're a player I like but the hobby hasn't necessarily embraced yet. And only because they're cheap that way.