26-year-old collector buys 1952 Hank Aaron Indy Clowns postcard for $275,000 - Page 2

samosa4u · #51 Yesterday, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd9cards

i would pose this question for the group, would you rather own a 1954 topps hank aaron in a psa 9 for ~$400k+ or the postcard i bought?

Psa 9 (considering it's not trimmed!)

gonefishin · #52 Yesterday, 03:14 PM

Jonah, a very big congratulations to you! I'm glad to read that it is something you covet.

Please don't let some of the negative comments some are making about a specific generation bother you or categorize you in any way. Hell, I bet 99% envy your purchase!

Sounds like you have made some very sound decisions in the past and the experiences you've had will guide you in the future.

Keep on collecting!

bk400 · #53 Yesterday, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd9cards

Hi, I am the owner of the 1952 Hank Aaron Indianapolis Clowns Postcard being discussed in this thread.

I think it is one of the best cards in the hobby. There has been a lot of conversation about the 'young' collectors interest in vintage. As I said in the video, I don't see vintage ever dying. The legends of the game will alway be the legends of the game, and we buy cardboard to connect ourselves to the history of the person and the history of baseball.

I collected vintage from a young age. I was 10-12 buying 1958 Topps All Stars on eBay for $20 a piece years ago. Hank Aaron has always been my #1 player to collect. My first 'big' purchase was of a 1955 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 6 for $400. I used a whole paycheck from a high school job to buy that one.

After college, I sold off every card I owned to buy just one. A 1954 Topps Hank Aaron rookie PSA 6 for $17k.

It seems to be only fitting that I did the same thing for the best Hank Aaron card in the world outside of the 2 PSA 10 rookies, albeit for a lot more than $17k.

I would pose this question for the group, would you rather own a 1954 Topps Hank Aaron in a PSA 9 for ~$400k+ or the Postcard I bought?

Obviously I chose the postcard, but to get into my reasons: There are currently 25 PSA 9 Hank Aaron Topps rookies. They sell around one time every 1-2 years. The difficult part is not finding one for sale, it is having $400k to spend on a baseball card.

I prefer buying cards which are most importantly hard to find. Someone can have all the money in the world, but if the 2 people who own this postcard aren't selling then they can never buy it.

For me, the postcard, without a doubt. The historical significance of it being Aaron's earliest "card" (broadly defined) and the provenance of having been owned for a lifetime by the man who discovered him. Even if other copies are discovered, the one you have is unique. Hard to say the same thing about a 1954 PSA 9, noting the strong arguments made by others about condition scarcity and real scarcity.

bk400 · #54 Yesterday, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I have a 27-year-old child so i have hope for the future. Her friends are more mature, more realistic, and more concerned with the healing of the world than my generation ever was at their age.

But I digress...

Jonah, nice of you to drop in and comment. I wholeheartedly agree with your approach. I've written a pile on absolute rarity versus condition rarity, manufactured rarity, etc. I also gravitate towards having something that very few others have. I'd rather be a gatekeeper than a pit stop. Here's a tough 1982 Aaron card from Korea, since you are an Aaron collector; thought you might enjoy it:

Kick ass card. I've been looking for this card for a long time. I found one of his other relatively obscure ones -- the 1977 Calbee with Sadaharu Oh -- but this 1982 remains very elusive.

jd9cards · #55 Yesterday, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I have a 27-year-old child so i have hope for the future. Her friends are more mature, more realistic, and more concerned with the healing of the world than my generation ever was at their age.

But I digress...

Jonah, nice of you to drop in and comment. I wholeheartedly agree with your approach. I've written a pile on absolute rarity versus condition rarity, manufactured rarity, etc. I also gravitate towards having something that very few others have. I'd rather be a gatekeeper than a pit stop. Here's a tough 1982 Aaron card from Korea, since you are an Aaron collector; thought you might enjoy it:

Great card, I have definitely never seen this before!

Brent G. · #56 Yesterday, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Wow, who's a pompous self-worshiper? That condescending piece of garbage above would indicate it's not who you think it is.

Your anecdote still ignores that those kids who are collecting modern cards now, a large percentage will one day collect vintage. The fact that you are hung up on what they collect now shows you just aren't getting it. Sport.

Do you even know what you're arguing, Counselor? I STARTED this thread about YOUNG PEOPLE COLLECTING VINTAGE, saying, "There will ALWAYS be people who love and value the history," celebrating Jonah's incredible purchase.

You came in to be Mr. Contrarian, actually arguing against things NO ONE was saying. NO ONE was attacking younger generations or saying they'd never buy vintage. Do better discovery.

jd9cards · #57 Yesterday, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

To the question at hand, choice between a 1:2 ’52 IC Aaron pre-rookie, or a 1:25 PSA 9 ’54 Topps Aaron rookie…there are a couple of ways to look it: Long-term investment or PC, positives and negatives.

’52 IC Aaron pre-rookie:
Positive: Negotiating power-With the owner effectively controlling 50% of the market and retaining approximately 50% of the market cap, they can set future auction reserve and move the market inorganically to the desired minimum exit price. Thus, the sky’s the limit…$400K(ish) is possible to match the established market of the PSA 9 ’54 Topps Aaron rookie. If current buyer paid up about 40% in 1 year ($199K to $275K), perhaps another buyer would pay up 40% next to $385K? However, given current buyer is specifically an Aaron collector and lives in Atlanta, there’s a specific xfactor of nostalgic and regional connection that could be driving individual demand. There’s significant upside from an investment standpoint, given possible ROI.
Negative: Price volatility-The case study of the Baltimore News Ruth pre-rookie proved just because one person pays up for a super scarce card, doesn’t guarantee the next won’t actually pay less. This effectively created a ‘down round’ as it were. However, that may have been a function of timing, marketing opportunity, and/or pricing strategy. There’s a significant upside from a PC perspective, given ROI wouldn’t matter if the card’s held in perpetuity.

’54 Topps Aaron rookie:
Positive: Mature market-There’s a well established market for the PSA 9, created by hundreds of transactions over many decades, moving the price organically up to $400K. Additionally, there are an unknown number of PSA 8 owners whom could be high potential bidders and acquirers of the PSA 9 as an upgrade of the PSA 8 version they already have invested in and committed to. However, 1:25 is less appealing than 1:2. There’s significant upside from an investment standpoint, given the protective moat created by a well established market.
Negative: Alternative investment-The elephant in the room is that a $400K price point can buy a collector pretty much any card they want. So at this level, it’s not ’54 Topps Aaron vs. ’52 IC Aaron, but Aaron’s vs. ’50 Toleteros Gibson vs. ’52 Topps Mantle vs. ’14 CJ Joe Jackson, and on and on. I’m a fractional CFO and financial modeling consultant, and advise companies through raising millions in investment capital, reminding CEO’s that VCs and PE firms don’t have a choice between equity in their company vs. sitting on their capital, but rather their company vs. hundreds of other investment options (including pretty much a satisfaction guarantee in vintage baseball cards!). There’s a significant upside from a PC perspective, given this card is the rookie of one of the game’s most influential and transcending players.

So the answer, classically is, it depends…

This is a very 'consultant' answer. I am also in consulting lol. But you didn't answer the question. Which would you prefer?

I appreciate the points you raised about the strengths and weaknesses of each option. The Baltimore News Ruth is actually a fascinating comparison to the Aaron. Both pieces fall outside the strict definition of a “card,” and both are scarce pre-rookies. But one thing that still stands out to me is the population and valuation gap: Aaron sits at 2 known copies versus roughly 10 for the Ruth, and a ~$275K valuation versus a ~$4M card even after shedding $3M on its most recent sale.

That puts the implied market cap for the Ruth around $40M and the Aaron around $500K. To me, that discrepancy feels difficult to justify. Should Ruth really trade at an 80x multiplier? I’m not arguing the Aaron should be worth anywhere near half of Ruth’s market cap, but I do believe there’s meaningful room for growth. And yes—I fully admit my bias.

A similar comparison can be done with the 1952 Indianapolis Clowns Aaron and the 1954 Topps Aaron PSA 9 from a market cap and relative value perspective. I think at minimum the PSA 9 Aaron and the Postcard should be worth the same amount

Peter_Spaeth · #58 Yesterday, 05:39 PM

I'd much rather own the postcard. Not a fan of flip driven values, sustainable or not. Actually I'd rather own the Gibson, the stupidest thing I ever did in the hobby was not buy one when I could have back in the day.

Al C.risafulli · #59 Yesterday, 06:04 PM

The postcard is a monster card. Congrats to anyone fortunate enough to latch onto one.

I prefer rarity over anything else, but that's just me. Nothing at all wrong with a PSA 9 Aaron rookie. Nothing at all wrong with a PSA 2 Aaron rookie. Nothing at all wrong with a PSA 2 1975 Topps Aaron. Collect what you like, and what your budget will allow. Yes, there's an investment component to this, but it's a hobby, and you can be in it - and passionate about it - with any level of budget.

I also agree with Scott that there are tons of new vintage collectors. We get deluged with new bidder registrations every auction, new names buying prewar cards at every level of scarcity and value, each and every auction. I've met a lot of these folks at the National and there are a lot of people I'd call "young."

Then again, every year more and more people are younger than me.

-Al

ASF123 · #60 Yesterday, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

That's the problem. Just like every generation before, we look at our kids and the rest of the younger generation and falsely assume their current mindset will be their future mindset. Every single generation goes through it. We always assume the worst of the next generation, and the best of ours. But the younger generation will develop and mature and be exactly what we are. As it pertains to cards, they will become vintage collectors the exact same way we did. Literally none of it has changed. The insight we think we have is an illusion.

Just out of curiosity, does this mean that Gen Z will inevitably grow to love classic rock too?

JimC · #61 Yesterday, 07:41 PM

Give me the postcard any day. I'll pick up a PSA 8 54 Aaron and be just fine.

That said, elite PSA 9 cards are tough to beat from an investment standpoint. The rare esoteric stuff can be hit or miss.

But the postcard wins.

jd9cards · #62 Yesterday, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'd much rather own the postcard. Not a fan of flip driven values, sustainable or not. Actually I'd rather own the Gibson, the stupidest thing I ever did in the hobby was not buy one when I could have back in the day.

I am very fortunate to own both

. I prefer the Aaron over the Gibson personally.

*Not sure if images are working but posted a photo of them together*

Peter_Spaeth · #63 Yesterday, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd9cards

I am very fortunate to own both

. I prefer the Aaron over the Gibson personally.

*Not sure if images are working but posted a photo of them together*

To me, the scale tips to Gibson because it's his only period card (even if technically a tribute card) whereas Aaron has numerous issues, but if you own both no need to do any weighing analysis.

Carter08 · #64 Yesterday, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark17

Your postcard. It has actual, highly impressive scarcity. Opinion sellers at PSA calling cards a "9" when they could just as easily call them "8" is not true rarity. It is manufactured rarity, and tomorrow someone could submit another one that gets a "9." The likelihood of another postcard like yours showing up is far less.

As for which will increase in value the most, or fastest, I have no idea.

The postcard all day every day!

perezfan · #65 Yesterday, 08:48 PM

I'll take a Hank Aaron pre-rookie Postcard over a PSA 9 Aaron Rookie any day of the week...

It is a FACT that there are only two known copies of the Aaron Postcard. But it is an OPINION that any Aaron Rookie rates a "9" among the hundreds of virtually identical Hank Aaron Rookies. And you can bet your bottom dollar that there are 7s and 8s out there that look (and are) superior to those that were designated as 9s. Especially if the "9" is in an older slab.

Congrats on acquiring a true grail card, Jonah!

brunswickreeves · #66 Yesterday, 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd9cards

This is a very 'consultant' answer. I am also in consulting lol. But you didn't answer the question. Which would you prefer?

I appreciate the points you raised about the strengths and weaknesses of each option. The Baltimore News Ruth is actually a fascinating comparison to the Aaron. Both pieces fall outside the strict definition of a “card,” and both are scarce pre-rookies. But one thing that still stands out to me is the population and valuation gap: Aaron sits at 2 known copies versus roughly 10 for the Ruth, and a ~$275K valuation versus a ~$4M card even after shedding $3M on its most recent sale.

That puts the implied market cap for the Ruth around $40M and the Aaron around $500K. To me, that discrepancy feels difficult to justify. Should Ruth really trade at an 80x multiplier? I’m not arguing the Aaron should be worth anywhere near half of Ruth’s market cap, but I do believe there’s meaningful room for growth. And yes—I fully admit my bias.

A similar comparison can be done with the 1952 Indianapolis Clowns Aaron and the 1954 Topps Aaron PSA 9 from a market cap and relative value perspective. I think at minimum the PSA 9 Aaron and the Postcard should be worth the same amount

Ah, you joust! The scarcity and potential upside on the ‘52 Aaron is appealing. Aesthetically, however, I prefer the ‘54 Aaron-love how that card pops and the key data/info on the back. Given a choice, I’d pick the guaranteed $400K ‘54 Aaron, sell that, and offer you $350K for the ‘52 Aaron. I’d spend the rest on a decent ‘52 Topps Mantle or Wagner Tip Top Bread.

raulus · #67 Yesterday, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd9cards

That puts the implied market cap for the Ruth around $40M and the Aaron around $500K. To me, that discrepancy feels difficult to justify. Should Ruth really trade at an 80x multiplier? I’m not arguing the Aaron should be worth anywhere near half of Ruth’s market cap, but I do believe there’s meaningful room for growth. And yes—I fully admit my bias.

A similar comparison can be done with the 1952 Indianapolis Clowns Aaron and the 1954 Topps Aaron PSA 9 from a market cap and relative value perspective. I think at minimum the PSA 9 Aaron and the Postcard should be worth the same amount

I’ve never really understood the whole market cap concept when it comes to individual cards. It’s not like there’s some underlying assets or income-generating business to compare it to…

Peter_Spaeth · #68 Today, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

I’ve never really understood the whole market cap concept when it comes to individual cards. It’s not like there’s some underlying assets or income-generating business to compare it to…

LOL. To me, no offense to Jonah, it's just jargon for a faux precise guess at value.

brunswickreeves · #69 Today, 05:53 AM

I find applying market cap thinking and principals helpful to individual cards of large populations, to better inform investment decisions at specific grades and where those grades sit as a percentage of total pop. I’ve done this recently for the ‘52 Topps Mantle using VCP sales data and all grading pops for each grade. The results are quite fascinating.

The below is an interesting resource I found on the subject of card market cap:

Where a Sports Card Market Cap Falls Short
While market cap is a useful tool, it’s not without limitations. Here are a few key drawbacks:

Assumes Every Card Will Sell for the Most Recent Price
Market cap relies on the last sale price, which may not reflect what all copies would sell for if they hit the market simultaneously. This makes it a theoretical measure rather than a literal one.

Sports Cards Are Illiquid and Have Information Asymmetry
Unlike financial markets, the sports card market is illiquid and often filled with inaccurate data. If the input data is unreliable, the market cap calculation becomes less trustworthy.

Ignores Demand Beyond Price
Market cap doesn’t account for:

How frequently a card is bought or sold.
How many copies are available for sale (float).

Tracking recent sales or active listings can complement the market cap for a fuller picture.

Assumes All Copies Are in Circulation
Many cards have been cracked and resubmitted or crossed to other grading companies, inflating population counts and skewing market cap calculations.

https://www.thesmartercollector.com/...ard-market-cap

Exhibitman · #70 Today, 10:01 AM

Add to that:

Undiscovered items: We know precisely how many shares were issued for a given publicly traded stock. There are undiscovered troves of cards out there, including old hoards that have never seen the inside of a grading room. As Boomers age out or die off I expect more goodies will come to light.

darwinbulldog · #71 Today, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael B

I find it amusing that a word which is meant to mean low class has been turned into a positive expression.

a) The proletariat is lower class, not the bourgeoisie. The former work for the latter.
b) Bougie carries a negative connotation in most cases.
c) Hoi polloi is the phrase that your comment applies to.

jd9cards · #72 Today, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I find applying market cap thinking and principals helpful to individual cards of large populations, to better inform investment decisions at specific grades and where those grades sit as a percentage of total pop. I’ve done this recently for the ‘52 Topps Mantle using VCP sales data and all grading pops for each grade. The results are quite fascinating.

The below is an interesting resource I found on the subject of card market cap:

Where a Sports Card Market Cap Falls Short
While market cap is a useful tool, it’s not without limitations. Here are a few key drawbacks:

Assumes Every Card Will Sell for the Most Recent Price
Market cap relies on the last sale price, which may not reflect what all copies would sell for if they hit the market simultaneously. This makes it a theoretical measure rather than a literal one.

Sports Cards Are Illiquid and Have Information Asymmetry
Unlike financial markets, the sports card market is illiquid and often filled with inaccurate data. If the input data is unreliable, the market cap calculation becomes less trustworthy.

Ignores Demand Beyond Price
Market cap doesn’t account for:

How frequently a card is bought or sold.
How many copies are available for sale (float).

Tracking recent sales or active listings can complement the market cap for a fuller picture.

Assumes All Copies Are in Circulation
Many cards have been cracked and resubmitted or crossed to other grading companies, inflating population counts and skewing market cap calculations.

https://www.thesmartercollector.com/...ard-market-cap

Market cap definitely isn't close to a perfect measure for card values, but fun to look at and compare. Individual sale price and availability of a card are more important

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