High grade cards are undervalued

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Posted By: leon

There is a simple answer to your question. It is ALWAYS supply and demand....and taken to the extreme it is that at a certain point in time....So while there might be 4 buyers for a T206 in vg, there might only be 2 cards. If you want high grade there might only be 2 graded a "7" and if there are 5 buyers at that level then the war begins. Again, it is always supply and demand, imo......now quit lurking so much and play some games with us......take care

edited for grammar

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Posted By: Josh K.

Perhaps I will start a beer can slabbing company and set the beer can market on fire.

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Posted By: Anonymous

Thanks to those that responded so far....

I like Julie's point regarding these things are supposed to be antiques and Leon's insight of supply and demand.

Slabbing beer cans....now there's an idea. Trust me, there are just as many nuts out there that spend big $$ on these things as cards. I guess the old saying applies....one man's trash is another's treasure. The cool thing is when you get baseball on your beer stuff. Now that's heaven! There's nothing better than a 1916 Brewery scorecard for the Sox or a program from the Huntington Avenue Grounds with beer advertsing in it.

Thanks guys,
Greg

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Posted By: Jim Crandell

There is no reason to respond to someone who claims that 2 cards went down in price. Thousands upon thousands are going up.
A better barometer is this--I will ask the top dealers in vintage graded cards to estimate the average appreciation over the past 5 years --say Greg Bussineau,Wayne Varner, Skerbe, Brian Drent, Memory Lane and Chris Porter of Lelands......and I will post what they said.
That high end graded cards have increased in value dramatically the past 5 years is indisputable. The question is where they go from here. I would argue they contimue to go up reflecting the big influx of high-end collectors into the hobby with the popularity and acceptance of grading. Some assets or investments have long runs. I grew up in the Hamptons--real estate values have marched steadily higher over the past 20 years withy little interruption. high end sportscards given their limited supply could do the same.

Jim

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Posted By: Mark Holt

Just scanned through the highlites (lowlights?) of this thread and a quick comment:

You guys claiming David Vargha and Jim Crandell are PSA hacks or backers haven't followed their comments on other boards or on this one in detail. David was banned from CU for a variety of reputed (real or imagined?)crimes committed against Joe O (or was it his daughter)long ago. Jim has been highly critical of PSA many times.

Their points on the Registry ring true to me - look at the number of T206 sets listed - jot down the number because it will be 30% larger in 6 to 8 months. I collect low grade T206s and put them on the Registry - I'm 31st or something ('Mark's T206 Set) and will never likely crack the top 20.

I travel extensively on the job and its a bit of a comfort to be able to see my cards in a hotel room across the country using the internet. I buy 3's raw or graded (HOFers), 3s commons, and 2's Southern Leaguers and will never likely finish the set. I add about one a month as that's what I can afford. I still find the registry fun and enjoy the 'set collectors' kick of adding another % completion to a great set.

Lots of mainstream vintage collectors buy graded cards because like me their primary method of purchase is eBay and graded cards give you a better shot of not getting a fake or ending up with poorly scanned cards with wrinkles and back damage.

I've been buying at that rate for years and I can tell you the prices for all grades are going up - look at my set - I have some 5s or 6s and don't want to spend that much anymore so now its 2s and 3s and those have gone up 50% this year. I bought PSA3 commons for around $20 a year ago and its over $30 today. 6s - forget about it. I still have 20 or so raw commons and will get them graded at some time just to get them on the Registry. Being the average sort in intelligence, income, and dress (six suits, 7.5 ties I actually wear, 2 pair of shoes besides athletic stuff, a Blazer with 75000 miles) I'm guessing there are plenty just like me on the Registry.

As a final thought rising prices are an annoyance, only important to my wife who will no doubt enjoy selling my graded cards after I croak. I'd rather they go down so I could buy more but that is not what is happening down here in VG-EX land.

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Posted By: Josh K.

A few years ago, I thought tech stocks would never go down as well.

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Posted By: John

“There is no reason to respond to someone who claims that 2 cards went down in price.”

Wow Jim, sorry to bother you with such a trivial question you’re right don’t waste your time with a nobody like me. What the heck could I know about cards or even real estate for that matter I don’t think I’ve ever even been to the Hamptons.

I’m so very sorry for posting on something I obviously know nothing about. When you talk to the big guys in your “circle of trust” please pass that information on to a few of the little people like myself. Much appreciated.

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Posted By: Rich Jacobs

One wonders. Compare two examples from the recnet MastroNet auction:

PSA 7 E95 Mathewson $12,863

http://www.mastronet.com/index.cfm?action=DisplayContent&ContentName=Lot%20Information&LotIndex=48955&CurrentRow=1

GAI 6 E95 Mathewson $1,854

http://www.mastronet.com/index.cfm?action=DisplayContent&ContentName=Lot%20Information&LotIndex=49073&CurrentRow=1

Is a one grade difference really worth a 7X multiplier?

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Rich, you're still alive!!

Long time, no hear!!



I think the lower graded card would have done much better if the 6 had come from PSA and not from GAI.

I just don't think they are as "accepted" yet... but the time may come when they are.

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Posted By: Josh K.

In my humble opinion - no. The 7 is clearly superior in my opinion, but I would be just as happy with the 6 and the extra 10k in my pocket.

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Posted By: identify7

If we are now to be evaluated based in the number of suits and ties which we own, I will not be able to compete in that either. But if vehicle milage is a criteria, I am up there with the (maybe not) best of ya. 80,000 miles.

Two suits: one for Sunday/going to meetings/burial, the other for special occasions.

Three ties: just incase you saw me with the other one last time.

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Posted By: cmoking

In my opinion, GAI cards are typically a half grade lower when compared to PSA, i.e. a GAI 7.5 = a PSA 7...a GAI 6 = a theoretical PSA 5.5. That's my opinion only based on the cards I have seen. Sometimes they are just as sharp, sometimes they are a grade lower. I have learned not to buy a high-priced GAI card at PSA equivalent grade prices unless I examine it in person. So in the comparison of the PSA 7 and the GAI 6 cards above, the marketplace looks at it as a PSA 7 card vs a theoretical PSA 5.5 card.

Please note: this does not mean that PSA is right and that GAI is wrong. It could just be that PSA is a tight-ass in giving 7s and 8s - specifically in Goudeys, where my experience is. It could be that PSA is protecting the existing population of 7s and 8s for those of you that are conspiracy theorists. It also doesn't mean that PSA doesn't screw up often, I've seen some ugly 8s and 7s, and some incredible 6s. I want to note this before I get attacked by the anti-PSA crowd, and now I note that my note is longer than my original statement.

I have been told by Leon previously that if I want to make a controversial statement that I have to include my real name. Leon, feel free to delete my post if it is too controversial in your view.

edited by leon....hey cmoking...I know you and you are not bashing someone so this is cool...it's just when someone says something about someone else I get defensive on anonymity

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Posted By: Peter Thomas

Cost me $125 as a raw card in 1988 or 89 and I tried to get it for $100, which seemed like plenty at the time, but the dealer would not budge. Fortunately I paid the extra $25 it is a beauty - could have been an eight. I had it graded about 7 years ago along with an E107 Plank that did grade 8 (wish I had kept that card), and now seemed like a good time to sell to support my more direct collecting habits, Ramly's, e92's, E103's, PCL's and Boston players. Tbob is right the E cards have gone through the roof. I hope the Matty has a nice new home. As Jim B knows the amount exceeded my expectation by $5000.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Jim, you just don't get it, do you. Those examples were posted to counter your claim that high grade cards are an infalible investment. high grade cards are no more an infalible investment than tech stocks were, or tulips.

It's easy to gloss over a few aberations when you have so much money tied up in that same exact investment. But remember, these aberations occur for a reason, and eventually, those aberation will become common place. And yes, the market recover from any bubble burst.

Keep telling yourself you've found a way to turn lead into gold if that makes you feel better about yourself and your collection, but high grade cards are not the perfect investment. Nothing is.

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Jay,

Relax and read whart I said again. Nothing is infallible...but unquestionably high grade vintage sportscards have been an outstanding investment. My belief is that with the supply likely to grow very slowly and demand likely to stay high or grow from here that they will continue to be so. If you don't fine--I don't care.

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Posted By: Anonymous

The post that Rich Jacobs gave regarding the two E95 Mathewsons pretty much reinforces my original question. First, how rare is this card ($12,000 "Rare") if two of them show up in the very same auction? Second, how in the world is there a $11,000 difference between the two cards? They both look very nice to me. Hal mentions the difference being the grading companies and the respective grade each received. Do people who have $12,000 to drop on a baseball card really rely so much on the plastic slab it is in, the company that graded it, and the subjective "grade" that card received, as minute a difference it may be,in order to substantiate such a difference in the price? After all, isn't the key thing the little piece of cardboard in that plastic holder? Is one REALLY that better than the other?

Julie had brought up the word "antique". Aren't 100 year old pieces of cardboard supposed to show a little wear here and there, especially since they were stuffed into cigarette or candy packs and opened up by a guy or kid who probably had no thought of keeping the thing in virgin condition to begin with?

Oh well, at least it's fun getting an education on all of this, despite how crazy it seems at times.

thanks for listening,
greg

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Posted By: identify7

Certainly Davidbreadman, your contentions regarding the viability and advisability of gathering relatively high graded baseball cards is arguable. Actually, I buy it (but I won't by them - I am on a different mission).

However, your statements regarding population information appears to me to include a bit of wishful thinking:"Population reports are invaluable and a must to gain proper market information. I also beleive that as the market becomes more efficient there will be less and less high grade raw cards as owners look to 'legitimize' their cards by getting them graded. It will become a must if you want to sell your card for its full value. This will increase the accuracy and quality of information gained in population reports."

Specifically, I believe that the accuracy of these reports will be increasingly worsened as the difference in between grade values makes it cost effective to try multiple submissions of the same card, in order to achieve a higher grade.