1933 Goudey

[Archive]

Posted By: cmoking

Bobby, I love your site, and I use it almost every day. Congrats on your good work.

However, your perceptive powers are incredibly weak. You mentioned you thought the cards were down 50%. I just went over your site and picked out 20 cards at random. I would have picked out more, but the numbers were so obviously different than 50% that I stopped bothering.

Here's what I did. I looked mostly for PSA 5s and PSA 6s. I clicked on 4 cards in the first 5 pages on VCP. I only took information if the same card in the same grade had sales both after May 2007 and between January 2006 and September 2006. In other words, I wanted to compare the market in the last three months to the market from Jan 2006 - Sep 2006, about a year's difference. There were many cards where data did not exist for both time periods, so I moved on to another card.

Over all, I picked out 2 PSA 7s, 12 PSA 6s and 6 PSA 5s.

The average card went down. But only 5%, a far cry from 50%. With a sampling size of only 20 cards, there's a fairly wide margin of error to the 5% number. But I'd guess the margin of error is not wider than 10% points either way. So a fairer ranger is probably to say the decline is somewhere from up 5% to down 15%.

Here are the individual cards I looked at. I took the average of the % increase/decline (rather than compare the average in prices of cards) because I did not want the high dollar cards (like the 92 PSA 6 Gehrig) to influence the price differential much more so than a common (like the 96 PSA 5).

I rounded decimals for individual auctions. For multiple auctions in the same time period, I averaged them. The first number is the card number, next is the PSA grade, next is the post-May 2007 sale, next is the Jan2006 to Sep2006 sale.


2 PSA 6 414/515
11 PSA 6 104/169
19 PSA 5 283/277
24 PSA 6 128/134
28 PSA 6 156.5/168
29 PSA 7 1108/1076
45 PSA 6 174/192
49 PSA 6 338/257
55 PSA 6 229/148
60 PSA 6 191/166
61 PSA 6 85/97
74 PSA 7 464/371
78 PSA 6 87/89
85 PSA 5 56/52
92 PSA 6 2343/2398
96 PSA 5 43/54
107 PSA 5 138/138
117 PSA 5 153/142
124 PSA 6 78/98
136 PSA 5 54/58



Conclusion: The Goudey mid-grade prices seem to be very close to what they were a year ago. 50% is not in the same universe in describing the market activity in 1933 Goudeys. +5% to -15% is probably a good range for the set as a whole.