Saturation Point

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by veloce

I'm not claiming these are revelations, I'm just pointing out that we are in the part of the bubble where people know these things are happening, but still having fun, because it doesn't seem to have gotten out of hand yet. I do think that the majority of collectors believe fake flips will go through Craigslist or ebay, but not the major auction houses or believe that preferential bumps are given to a few collectors, but not enough to substantially alter the equilibrium of supply and demand. It's easy to imagine that perception lasting a few more years, but also easy to imagine a larger scandal that causes that perception to change quickly. Markets are unpredictable, I just believe that this bubble is very vulnerable to scandal/loss of faith. I concede that ten years ago I would have bet against 2016 graded postwar prices being higher than 2006 prices and I would have been wrong, but the fact that the bubble has lasted 20 years, doesn't mean it will last 30. Of course, we don't even need a scandal to correct the market for high end Yaz/Bradshaw/Gretzky/Montana RCs. The rate that raw cards are graded or that 8s become 9s and 9s become 10s is necessarily greater than cards getting cracked out or 10s becoming 9s or 9s becoming 8s, so supply is ever increasing and eventually people may lose faith that these cards are rare.

What fundamentals am I missing about this market that should make me optimistic? The fact that people are aware of some shenanigans and the market is still increasing, just seems like every other bubble to me.

~R1CK ST3PH3N

I hear you and of course it could happen. But don't you think the Wagner already should have resulted in a major loss of faith? I think what you may be missing are first, ego and wishful thinking outweighing common sense. As a major card doctor was overheard saying, I give these guys what they want (referring to high end cards that otherwise don't really exist). I believe large numbers of people are buying/investing in flips not really caring about the integrity of the card. Second, the ability of PSA to limit pop growth.