Omnious sign in market?

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

Just eyeballing those two gehrigs, the SGC one looks way nicer to me. SHC has gotten way tougher on grading, so not sure those two cards are the beat comp.

I think there are a number of factors at work:

1) Regarding the Gehrigs - The SGC 6 is a considerably nicer "eye appeal" card - not even close to the PSA 6(imho)! More of the discerning collectors/buyers in the marketplace are starting to pay attention to the cards in the holders beyond the numbers on the holders and are willing to pay premiums sometimes large ones for clearly nicer cards. This makes a LOT of sense to me as on the best day of the week ALL grading companies are at least inconsistent.

2) burnout - I think many people have just hit sensory overload, between shows and auctions. I do this full time and there just aren't enough hours in a day to track it all! I suspect for most this is a hobby to which considerably less time is devoted - choices need to be made.

3) Auctions are not always the best indicator - auction houses like to tell consignors that an auction is going to get the best price for their items - suggesting that "all" potential buyers will see and have an opportunity to bid on their items - in most cases I strongly disagree (For certain marquee items - think SGC 9.5 52 Mantle - I do think a high profile auction with lots of publicity around a lot IS the best place to sell). For reasons above and others that have been mentioned in this thread - there is no "perfect" venue to sell every item - not every buyer looking for a particular item is looking at every auction! Stuff falls through the cracks.

4) Ticket stubs and photo differences - This ties into #2 and #3 above - I think the collector base for these types of items is, so far, considerably smaller than for "mainstream" cards. A better chance that if some of those collectors aren't looking - there is the opportunity for greater price discrepancies.

5) Ultimately it boils down to 2 overarching concepts - 1) Simple supply and demand economics - When demand outpaces supply it drives prices up, when supply outpaces demand it drives prices down. I have said it on a number of other threads - I see the high end biggest name players cards in continuously short supply relative to demand continuing to set records (I also think they are just getting warmed up). I see a little bit of a decline in the lower grade/higher supply cards due to slight softness in demand (arguably influenced by some of the larger economic impacts mentioned above). This will be the area I think has the greatest possibility of a bit further softness. I think it is a mistake to think of the "market" as a whole. I think it needs to be looked at in segments. 2) Arbitrage & inconsistency - the markets are inefficient - sometimes grossly so - there is no single place where all willing buyers can meet all willing sellers (despite what auction companies will tell you). Grading companies as much as they try to "objectify" the grading process will ALWAYS be inefficient - unlike buying a share of stock where 1 (common share) is literally "the exact same" as another. No 2 cards are exactly the same and 3rd party grader opinion notwithstanding - beauty is in the eye of the be - holder (pun intended).