Quote:
Originally Posted by BobC
Yes, but isn't the idea to "get into scoring position" even more important? Back during Cobb's prime, there were very few home runs hit, so someone getting on 1st base wasn't actually a person considered in scoring position. Having a guy on 1st steal 2nd to get into scoring position was a big deal back then. Nowadays with all the big guns going for home runs, once a player gets on 1st base, to the home run hitters that may be coming up to bat behind them they are already in scoring position. So why take a chance on stealing and getting thrown out, and thus removing them from a scoring position in today's modern game, right?
In Cobb's case it would likely depend on the type of modern team he was playing on. A team like the Indians/Guardians this past year were not all about the home run, like most current MLB teams, and Cobb would have fit in a lot better. They were into players getting on base, and then moving them around via steals, hit and run, etc. Plus, if you had a guy that could steal bases like Cobb was able to, it could change some of the dynamic of the team, and how much stealing they would consider doing. Good food for thought question though.
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Generally, but there's a whole thing about who is on what base and how many outs. Run expectancy.
So the risk/reward of a steal
Lets say cobb gets a single.
No outs, runner on first will expect .94 for the rest of the inning.
If he steals second that's good! 1.17
If he gets caught? Oh, down to .56
Generally the father the runners are and the fewer outs the better off you are.
But as those odds get better, the reward is less and the risk larger.
I'm not so sure I agree with the math, but the people that do calculate the expected runs for each season. And I'd bet that the teams get more detailed, like which pitcher and what runner/batter combination.
https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/...omment-page-1/
01-09-2023, 01:52 PM
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