Relative value in regional sets?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bk400

So I'm looking at prices for iconic HOF rookies pre-1980, and there are a lot of these regional or oddball rookie cards out there. The graded population (at least the PSA and SGC populations) are often 1/10th that of the mainstream rookie cards, while the realized sales price is at a substantive discount.

We see this with the O Pee Chees and, more acutely, with all the random oddball sets. But the oddball sets are mainstream enough to have a PSA auction prices, ebay listings, and pop reports.

Intuitively, this doesn't make sense to me. Perhaps a stupid question, but in other markets for investible products, this sort of pricing differential would rarely happen. Any thoughts on why this is the case?

In short: Supply and demand.

The mainstream issues have robust demand. The oddball issues often have significantly reduced demand, even relative to their relatively low supply.

At the same time, as prices for mainstream issues rise, many collectors turn to oddballs as a reasonable substitute. A lot will depend on the issue, including how many are available, how well known it is, and how attractive it is. Size is also often an issue, as many of the oddball pieces are either a lot smaller or a lot bigger, and as such, many collectors aren't as convinced that they are the same as a conventional-size card.

But the bottom line is that oddball pieces are often lesser known and underloved compared to mainline cards. So they usually trade at a discount, with a few exceptions for really rare and desireable oddball pieces out there that serve to prove the general rule.

One last thought: IIRC from some of your other posts, you're new getting back into the hobby, so a little bit of history might be helpful. During the pandemic, the runup in mainline cards was breathtaking. 300-500%+ increases in value, and sometimes even more. While oddball pieces also jumped, the increase wasn't nearly as dramatic. Maybe 50-100%, give or take. While the gap has almost always been there, the gap has grown over the last few years.