the issue of scarcity re:206 backs

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Posted By: barry arnold

Recognizing that Bill Brown's Super Set is a work in progress, I find myself
beginning to wonder if we should begin rethinking the scarcity order many of us 'grew up' on,e.g. the one provided by T206 Museum. Certainly, Scot
Reader's work has already provided much research in helping us to rethink
the order.

I'd like to underscore some data from the Super Set which causes me to
'scratch my head' a bit and see what your beginning reflections may be
regarding a 'new' scarcity order.

It strikes me as odd that Sweet Caporal 350-460 fact. 42 is only 35% complete
(38 of 109). It stands at 30th on the backs scarcity order of T206 Museum which
means it is very common. Similarly,its 'brother' SC 350-460 fact.25 is at
41% (45 of 109). It stands at 25th in the order.
While EPDG has only 37% completion (175 of 470),standing at 19th in the order,
Cycle 460 at 59% completion (64 of 109) stands at 17th in the order.
Less conspicuously,yet importantly,Tolstoi has 46% completion (147 of 317)
standing at 18th in the order.
Very conspicuously, Old Mill black has 42% completion(195 of 461),and stands,
I think,a bit glaringly at 26th in the scarcity order. I use this strong language when I note that Carolina Brights at 39% (84 of 214)stands at
14th on the list and Piedmont fact.42 40% (44 of 109) stands at 10th.
Granted, I recognize from my own collecting habits that C.B. and Pied.42
are definitely in a different class from the rest that I have underscored
in terms of scarcity/rarity.

Given the Super Set data at this point, I am wondering if we should rethink
the relatively high position of Cycle 460. Are the SC's mentioned and the
OM black too low in the ordering? Does EPDG need to be moved up? Where does
Tolstoi belong?

As a personal qualifier, let me say that I recognize that our pool of data
is still limited, given some collectors who simply have not chosen to be part
of this research, which certainly is their right. Further, it may well be
that we ultimately may be talking about the rarity of some cards with particular brands rather than the rarity of whole brands of cards. This has
been intimated in other threads.

Still, it does seem to me that with so many of our forum contributing their
data to this important task with the result being the 'surprises' that I
have elucidated, we have the exciting opportunity before us to begin the
rethinking of the T206 scarcity list.

all the best,

Barry