756*

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Posted By: Brian

<<A-Rod has averaged only (lol) 46 HRs/year for his career, so it's highly unlikely he'll have 51 later in his career.>>

The exact same thing could have been said of Barry when he was 30 years old. I would be highly unlikely for his production to increase later in his career, but that's exactly what happened.


When Barry was 30, he had hit 40+ homers only once in a season (1993 with 46 homers) and no more than 34 in any other season.

After he was 30, he hit 40+ homers in seven seasons with a high of 73.

Barry's most productive steak was ages 35-39. The only other members of the 500 home run club who's career HR/AB ratio doesn't level off after age 30 is Palmerio, Sosa and McGwire.


As for likelihood, Bill James' favorite toy can estimate the likelihood of achieving a future milestone. According to the favorite toy, Aaron had a 3% chance of hitting 755 at age 30 and Bonds had a 0% chance of hitting 755 at age 30. How could Bonds be at 0%? No one could have expected his most productive years would be at age 35-39 and that those years would be so dramatically better than anything he had previously done.

The following post will detail ARod's current percetanges at hitting 800, 900 and 1,000 home runs.