Interesting Ebay Bidding

[dariushou]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

In the past I put down a ton of early bids on PWCC cards. Just so they show up on my eBay bidding list. I bid early and forget about them for a few weeks. I get outbid quickly and then just have a marker down and move on. Do the same thing for most of the major AHs. I would ascribe zero to early bidding.

I pointed out guys who bid early AND had high bid retractions. Do you have a lot of bid retractions? You also state you get outbid early which means you were probably trying to get a good deal -- how often do you get a good deal on PWCC auction.

You mention prewar. Here's my take on that. Prices that go up for other cards -- lets say 1955 clemente or 1956 clemente or whatever -- will impact other cards. If you were to bid on a Ty Cobb, you may think to yourself that other cards, even newer cards like 1955 Clemente shot up so why not the Cobb. My point is that a bubble (no matter the creation) brings everything up... well except for the obvious losers --junk wax I have not looked at a ton of cards prewar, but I would highly doubt they were not impacted, especially the ones that are traded frequently.

I like Keith's chart from VCP. I'm going to expand on it a little bit to highlight what has happened over the past several years. Price appreciation in a small market (baseball cards) is easily manipulated. I'll accompany that with an internet bubble chart (NASDAQ). Take note that in a heavily traded market, like the NASDAQ, the index shot up to about 2.5-3x the normal path (NOT 50-100x like what we have seen in the much smaller baseball card market which is easily manipulated). Then, my favorite,the typical bubble path chart.


Here is the expanded Clemente Chart:




Here is the NASDAQ Internet Bubble Chart:



Here is my favorite Bubble Chart: