baseball playoffs

[packs]

Bryant is worse and his team faces elimination. If the Cubs lose, no one is going to dump their Bryant rookies, but Judge has a bad series (one in which he was responsible for saving one game and knocking out the starter who dominated the team in game 1) and everyone is sure he's got major problems ahead of him.

[bravos4evr]

Judge has a troubling profile tho. As teams do their offseason scouting reports by looking at tape...etc Judge is going to have make some major adjustments or else he could end up in Rob Deer territory

not saying he can't do that, but his batting profile is generally one of the most volatile and short lived.

[packs]

How can you compare him to Rob Deer? Rob Deer is a career 220 hitter who couldn't take a walk and didn't score runs. Judge led the league in runs and walks.

I posted Bryant's batting line already. Harper is hitting 133 himself in his series. But there is something wrong with only Judge. I don't buy that.

[frankbmd]

Not defending Bryant or Harper and certainly a five game series is not a significant sample size from which to predict future performance.

Nevertheless 16 Ks in 5 games (3.2/game) would result in 518.4 Ks in a 162 game season if one played in every game. I recognize the Aaron struck out only (?) 208 times this year, but could this number go higher next season. I wouldn't bet against it, unless of course the "Judge" spent a little more time on the "bench" next year.

Unfortunately with the evolution of the game into a home run derby/strike out game much of the "inside baseball" of the older game seems to be disappearing. Is anyone surprised that a record number of home runs and strikeouts occurred in the same year? Judge is just the most hyped example of this trend, but there are many others.

Not a hater, just the facts.

[packs]

That ignores Judge's entire season though. He had a historic September where he hit 15 homers in a month, but you're not saying that Judge can be expected to hit 90 home runs next season.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by packs

That ignores Judge's entire season though. He had a historic September where he hit 15 homers in a month, but you're not saying that Judge can be expected to hit 90 home runs next season.

Allow me to be the first to say, 'Aaron Judge will NOT hit 90 home runs next season!'
.

[packs]

Haha I don't think anyone does. My point was only that if you focus on one aspect of his game and extrapolate stats over a season, the same should be done for all stats.

[Cliff Bowman]

How in the world do you intentionally walk Jason Heyward with two out? Unless the bases are loaded you walk batters to GET TO Jason Heyward with two outs. Dusty Baker deserved to lose just for that.

[Snapolit1]

Two very good teams in the WS. Will be great baseball but the ratings will no doubt be off. Houston is largely unknown to most casual fans. Yankees had a good run. To all their fans saying we will set for years to come and will be back repeatedly I say say hello to the 2015 Mets. Nothing guaranteed. One of their sluggers goes down in May for the year and a few of their other guys under achieve and they will be struggling to make the playoffs.

[barrysloate]

I too am shocked Cleveland lost the series. They finished the season 32-4, probably the best finish ever, and after their amazing comeback to win game two, they played the last three games as the walking dead.

And the Yankees did this with a minimal contribution from Judge. If he gets hot...maybe, just maybe, this will be the Yankees year. It could get interesting.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I too am shocked Cleveland lost the series. They finished the season 32-4, probably the best finish ever, and after their amazing comeback to win game two, they played the last three games as the walking dead.

And the Yankees did this with a minimal contribution from Judge. If he gets hot...maybe, just maybe, this will be the Yankees year. It could get interesting.

it's almost like the wildcard playoff format dilutes the postseason into a random bunch of nonsense! (which it does)

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by packs

How can you compare him to Rob Deer? Rob Deer is a career 220 hitter who couldn't take a walk and didn't score runs. Judge led the league in runs and walks.

I posted Bryant's batting line already. Harper is hitting 133 himself in his series. But there is something wrong with only Judge. I don't buy that.

A- using the playoffs as a gauge of a player's ability is silly, it's too small of a sample size and means absolutely nothing

B- Deer posted a career walk rate of 12.7% and a K rate of 31.2% , at present Judge ,after only one and 1/6th of a season, has a BB% of 17.6 and a K% of 32.3% Deer also has his entire career to compare with scouting reports and age decline built in to these numbers.

C- runs are a team stat and not indicative of individual performance (you have no control over how well the people hit behind you)

D- Bryant has a history of being good in MLB and doesn't have the same batted ball profile of Judge, he also plays good defense at a premium position and has averaged 7 fWAR for 3 straight seasons and only strikes out 23.7% of the time using the playoffs to compare them is silly ,once again


E- league avg for the AL was 18.6% soft contact 49.2% med. contact and 32.2% hard contact with a 21.3 K% and a batting avg on balls in play of .300 Judge posted a 11.2 soft contact, 43.5 med contact and 45.3 hard contact but with 30.7 K% and a BABIP of .357 (which is high for him) Using his nearly 800 PA's worth of data , he looks like a guy who swings hard but got lucky on balls in play, if that regresses towards the mean of .300, and hi K% increases or BB% decreases (or all of the above) he could become a guy who struggles to make contact enough to be viable.

F- AL hitters avg swinging at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%) was 30% and they made contact on those pitches 62.9% of the time, in the zone (Z-swing%) AL avg was 66.8% and they made contact 85.5% of the time. Judge's O-swing% was 27.4$ with 44% contact, and his Z-swing% was 62.4% with 82.2% contact. like I said, contact + K's could be an issue for him if he doesn't make the proper adjustments,