Alteration vs. Conservation Defined

[benjulmag]

Post 244 in this thread lists PSA's warranty reserves as of 6/30/18 to be $862K.

Suppose hypothetically there is a cost efficient forensic method available that can CONCLUSIVELY establish that a card has been altered? For example, maybe there is a way to show untrimmed borders exposed to the elements have different physical characteristics than recently trimmed borders. Or that a worked-on corner has a different paper density than an unworked-on corner. Or perhaps the bringing out of a residue crease line from a spooned-out crease. What do you think PSA's potential warranty exposure could be?

I get it that the way the warranty reads PSA must agree with the finding. But it would seem to me that if the finding is based on scientific fact, I don't see how legally PSA could ultimately avoid paying on the warranty. Based on the potentially staggering number of high grade vintage cards that could be required to be materially downgraded, it would seem to me that the warranty reserve is a fraction of what could be needed.

It intrigues me how PSA seems to be merrily going along continuing to give these vintage cards such high grades while, to use Peter's phrase, there appears to be this ticking time bomb. Can they really be so confident that the day will not come when such forensic testing becomes the norm and the bottom falls out? Is it possible they really do believe that all these high grade vintage cards are in fact unaltered? If I was running the company, based on what I believe to be the case of alteration being the rule not the exception for these cards, I would be very worried about the long-term financial implications of their current business model.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Meanwhile, the card at the focus of the restored/conserved/altered discussion, the 52T Mantle from PWCC, apparently has not been paid for.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Suppose hypothetically there is a cost efficient forensic method available that can CONCLUSIVELY establish that a card has been altered? For example, maybe there is a way to show untrimmed borders exposed to the elements have different physical characteristics than recently trimmed borders. Or that a worked-on corner has a different paper density than an unworked-on corner. Or perhaps the bringing out of a residue crease line from a spooned-out crease.

For the first two, the answer is that that technology already exists, and has for a long time.
A 40X magnifier and some knowledge will usually cover them easily. The 40X magnifer is <$10. My first one cost 7 at a antique shop that sells supplies, my next few were about 2 each in a lot on ebay. (5 for 10?) 10 for 20? I don't remember. )
The knowledge is a bit harder to come by, but it's out there.

I'm not sure about a spooned out crease. To my knowledge I don't own any cards with that. It should be detectable.

I believe that in theory it should be possible to trim a card so that almost can't be detected. Almost. It would take some fairly involved equipment, but nothing that isn't readily available.

Some modern cards will be really hard. Some of the Topps Gypsy Queen base cards are a combination of die cut and knife cut. Different edges have different qualities right out of the pack.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by steve B

For the first two, the answer is that that technology already exists, and has for a long time.
A 40X magnifier and some knowledge will usually cover them easily. The 40X magnifer is <$10. My first one cost 7 at a antique shop that sells supplies, my next few were about 2 each in a lot on ebay. (5 for 10?) 10 for 20? I don't remember. )
The knowledge is a bit harder to come by, but it's out there.

I'm not sure about a spooned out crease. To my knowledge I don't own any cards with that. It should be detectable.

I believe that in theory it should be possible to trim a card so that almost can't be detected. Almost. It would take some fairly involved equipment, but nothing that isn't readily available.

Some modern cards will be really hard. Some of the Topps Gypsy Queen base cards are a combination of die cut and knife cut. Different edges have different qualities right out of the pack.

I would think, and maybe I'm wrong, that unless you trim all four edges, at some level of magnification the trimmed edges will look different from the others in some way, despite efforts to make them look the same post-trimming.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would think, and maybe I'm wrong, that unless you trim all four edges, at some level of magnification the trimmed edges will look different from the others in some way, despite efforts to make them look the same post-trimming.

Even trimming all four, getting a new edge looking like an old edge is hard. Maybe not impossible, but very hard.

[drcy]

The science used in other areas of collecting and history is so sophisticated that, for example, it can tell you when an artifact was buried in the ground by measuring the atomic energy released since it was hidden from sunlight.

Yes, I think science could be used to conclusively identify all sorts of alterations, including trimming, in trading cards.

Whenever I'm asked to examine an item, I ask "Where'd you get it?" The answer may just be that they picked it up in a garage sale or found it in an attic, but I expect an answer. If it was bought in an auction, I always check out the auction listing.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by steve B

For the first two, the answer is that that technology already exists, and has for a long time.
A 40X magnifier and some knowledge will usually cover them easily. The 40X magnifer is <$10. My first one cost 7 at a antique shop that sells supplies, my next few were about 2 each in a lot on ebay. (5 for 10?) 10 for 20? I don't remember. )
The knowledge is a bit harder to come by, but it's out there.

I'm not sure about a spooned out crease. To my knowledge I don't own any cards with that. It should be detectable.

I believe that in theory it should be possible to trim a card so that almost can't be detected. Almost. It would take some fairly involved equipment, but nothing that isn't readily available.

Some modern cards will be really hard. Some of the Topps Gypsy Queen base cards are a combination of die cut and knife cut. Different edges have different qualities right out of the pack.

I'm not challenging the accuracy of what you are saying, but simply expressing my amazement about the implications of what this means. So PSA slabs vintage cards with high grades, knowing that collectors will rely on those grades to justify in some instances spending mega mega bucks to buy the cards at auction. And then should (when?) the day come that it is revealed that these cards are altered and worth a fraction of what they sold for, and PSA receives claims to make good on their warranty, they just fork over the money? As I said before, based on how the warranty currently reads, assuming the scientific finality of such forensic conclusions, that is one interesting business model.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I'm not challenging the accuracy of what you are saying, but simply expressing my amazement about the implications of what this means. So PSA slabs vintage cards with high grades, knowing that collectors will rely on those grades to justify in some instances spending mega mega bucks to buy the cards at auction. And then should (when?) the day come that it is revealed that these cards are altered and worth a fraction of what they sold for, and PSA receives claims to make good on their warranty, they just fork over the money? As I said before, based on how the warranty currently reads, assuming the scientific finality of such forensic conclusions, that is one interesting business model.

If it becomes too much of a burden I assume PSA will just revoke it. The train is running so fast I'm not sure anything could slow it down at this point. I don't think most people even care. You and I are from an era where the notion of altering a card was anathema. I'm not sure the newer folks spending megabucks these days have the same view. Heck, a guy spent well into 6 figures on a Jordan card that even PSA said was altered.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If it becomes too much of a burden I assume PSA will just revoke it. The train is running so fast I'm not sure anything could slow it down at this point. I don't think most people even care. You and I are from an era where the notion of altering a card was anathema. I'm not sure the newer folks spending megabucks these days have the same view. Heck, a guy spent well into 6 figures on a Jordan card that even PSA said was altered.

I'm not saying you are incorrect in this assessment, but wouldn't that be something -- a company revoking a warranty because the product was so defective it became too expensive to keep it. That would make some interesting advertising fodder for competitors.

BTW, I'm not persuaded that in time people will not begin (have to) care. Maybe collectors in today's era for the most part do not care. Maybe they have doubts about what has been done to the card but feel protected because of the high number grade on the slab. But it just seems to me that if a person or two undertakes such testing and publicizes the results, that trickle could slowly gain momentum. The perception could grow that a card's grade bears little correlation to its true condition. And it is that shift in public perception that could materially impact a person's assessment of the investment potential of these cards, which could be the impetus for change.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If these are the same card, this is pretty bad.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=1188

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If these are the same card, this is pretty bad.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=1188

This one is horrendous!!!!! You'd think the trimmed edges from the doctor would appear different in color than the natural rough cut that was left alone on the bottom.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If these are the same card, this is pretty bad.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=1188

If? You can Look 'N See that they're the same card.

More proof of money under the table to graders for turning a blind eye. I could understand a micro-trim slipping past every once in a while, but to trim that much and go undetected?

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If these are the same card, this is pretty bad.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=1188

he turned it in to a mini! worth at least double.

[chalupacollects]

BTW, I'm not persuaded that in time people will not begin (have to) care. Maybe collectors in today's era for the most part do not care. Maybe they have doubts about what has been done to the card but feel protected because of the high number grade on the slab. But it just seems to me that if a person or two undertakes such testing and publicizes the results, that trickle could slowly gain momentum. The perception could grow that a card's grade bears little correlation to its true condition. And it is that shift in public perception that could materially impact a person's assessment of the investment potential of these cards, which could be the impetus for change.

So maybe people are buying the holder and not the card? What then would happen if the TPG's implode based on current events/scandals. How would those folks feel then? What would they do?

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

BTW, I'm not persuaded that in time people will not begin (have to) care. Maybe collectors in today's era for the most part do not care. Maybe they have doubts about what has been done to the card but feel protected because of the high number grade on the slab. But it just seems to me that if a person or two undertakes such testing and publicizes the results, that trickle could slowly gain momentum. The perception could grow that a card's grade bears little correlation to its true condition. And it is that shift in public perception that could materially impact a person's assessment of the investment potential of these cards, which could be the impetus for change.

So maybe people are buying the holder and not the card? What then would happen if the TPG's implode based on current events/scandals. How would those folks feel then? What would they do?

If many of these sophisticated alterations can in fact be detected, if only it was important enough for TPGs to do so, the change I am hoping would come is that they would be forced to do so. If current methods become so untrustworthy, market forces might require that.