If You Started A Grading/Authentication service today...

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Phil68

I posted this over at CU...

Using what you've learned from your experiences and needs regarding 3rd party G/A, what would your business model look like? You're in charge. Go...

IMO any successful business model would need to be predicated on a grading methodology that gives reasonable assurance the card has not been altered. As has been discussed ad nauseum, current grading methods will not detect expert alterations. Technology needs to be incorporated into the system to scientifically determine whether a card has been trimmed, color added, creases removed, corners spooned out. Granted, such a system will not be able to detect with 100% certainty whether a card has been altered. But if the technology exists or comes into being to have the probability of detecting alterations beyond a certain threshold, say 95% (two standard deviations), IMO game eventually over, assuming the startup is sufficiently capitalized. Why?

Because if the company was to randomly purchase several hundred PSA T206s graded 8 or higher and have them regraded using this new technology, I would wager the GREAT majority will be found to have been altered in one form or another. At that point the startup sets up at every major show and advertises in every major hobby publication touting these results; it would also try to get national and regional press coverage.

ASSUMING this were to happen, what NEW collector/investor would possibly be willing to pay big dollars for a PSA T206 unless it was regraded under this new method? And without a continued supply of new collectors/investors to the hobby being willing to buy graded cards at their current price levels, prices will plummet. Remember, these new collectors/investors have no current skin in the market, and their rational purchasing decisions would be based on what something actually is, not on some fantasy notion of what they want something to be. In contrast, the current owners/registry collectors view of rational buying behavior is not to do anything to cast doubt on the validity of the current grading system.

I recognize that many on this Board will think I am in la la land with this viewpoint. But, again, assuming the technology to do this exists/comes into being and becomes the system by which this new company grades cards, then IMO it simply a matter of adequate capitalization and marketing acumen to get the necessary word out. At that point, I believe this new company eventually becomes for certain issues the main TPG.