The Next "Big Cards"

[scmavl]

What do you think will be the next 48 Robinson/52 Mantle/54 Aaron/89 Griffey to soar up to crazy heights relative to where it is now?

I'm thinking the '51 Bowman Willie Mays. Especially after he passes, but even before. I think folks will realize what a near-perfect ballplayer he was, as well as recognizing he spent some time in the Negro Leagues.

Other likely candidates (IMO) are:

-'53 Topps Satchel Paige
-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

Thoughts?

[LincolnVT]

I think 52 stars, minor stars and rare high number cards have a lot of room to grow and seem to be in high demand.

[Exhibitman]

Assuming I could even hope to predict, I wouldn't reveal it here...just sayin'.

-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

These three are wishful thinking. None of them have the sort of appeal needed, either from a player perspective or a set perspective. A 1952 Topps stars run is more likely a good answer, but which ones is the question. Does anyone care about Enos Slaughter? Really?

The 1953 Paige is already off to the races; we will see a $1,000+ PSA 1 before the end of the run. Paige has such a small number of career-contemporary cards that once the 1953 skyrockets, look to oddball issues to follow: his Exhibit card, Indians team issues and regionals, etc. I'd be looking at very early cards of star Negro Leaguers who made it into MLB. Larry Doby, for example, is criminally undervalued. Orestes Minoso is another one who should be in the HOF. Another place to mine is the minor league cards of star NLers who never made it to an MLB cart but whose NL stats are going to be treated as MLB stats. That will generate a wave of enthusiasm for them.

[ASF123]

I'm thinking the '51 Bowman Willie Mays.

This seems like it's already happening too - when I first started thinking about buying some cards again last fall, it seemed like a no-brainer to pick up a 51B Mays as an undervalued card. I intended to get a nice one for, say, $3-4k. I didn't make the leap right away, though, and within a few weeks they were twice that.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by ASF123

This seems like it's already happening too - when I first started thinking about buying some cards again last fall, it seemed like a no-brainer to pick up a 51B Mays as an undervalued card. I intended to get a nice one for, say, $3-4k. I didn't make the leap right away, though, and within a few weeks they were twice that.

The 51B Mays is already off and running, no next about it.
I have a PSA 10 Topps Gold Soto US300 that I was planning on selling in the Spring and then buying the Mays with that money but I think I miscalculated on that one.

[Wanaselja]

I can see Koufax’s RC and Clemente’s RC having a go. I know Clemente already had a big bump in 2015 or 16 but I could see those 2 cards gaining a lot of steam.

I’ll add the T206 Eddie Collins. That card should be at the same level as Lajoie and Speaker.

I’ll also add the 39 Play Ball Ted Williams.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Pretty much ANY Jackie Robinson card...with only a handful of options of mainstream cards (years 1948 through 1956) I think eventually the demand for authentic, playing days cards of Jackie will reach the demand currently bestowed only on Ruth.

Jackie is likely the only baseball player that will continue to be taught about to kids in history class (for obvious reasons) literally forever.

SOME day, I think maybe even the Mantle mystique will fade a little...but Jackie Robinson and Babe Ruth will be timeless.

Funny enough, I'm not good at taking my own advice. I very recently saved up a large-ish sum of money (for me) and decided I wanted to add a major piece to my collection. I currently don't own any Jackie cards, and the only Ruth card I own is rough looking 1935 Goudey 4 in 1. I debated for WEEKS whether to add a playing days Jackie card or a playing days Ruth card. And as the weeks went by, prices on both seemed to increase.

In the end, I went with Ruth (a beat up 1931 W517)...but only because his cards seem a little scarcer (and therefore more likely to get out of my price range), and I'm hopeful this current price spike will at least level off and leave me time to still save up and grab a Jackie Robinson card. I might have to lower my condition expectations, but hopefully SOMETHING will be available in my budget.

[jayshum]

I am hoping Ruth cards don't keep going up since I still need the 1935 Goudey 4 in 1 with the 5A back (I have the other 3 Ruths from the set). I missed out on a few of them and now I am worried that I will be priced out of any that do show up.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by jayshum

I am hoping Ruth cards don't keep going up since I still need the 1935 Goudey 4 in 1 with the 5A back (I have the other 3 Ruths from the set). I missed out on a few of them and now I am worried that I will be priced out of any that do show up.

Oddly, the 5A version is the one I have. I knew it was one of the rare ones. But I got it cheap a couple years ago because it has creases and a thumb tack hole right in the center.

I am S L O W L Y trying to put together a low grade basic set of 1935 Goudey too (all 36 card fronts) while also building a few of the puzzles. I have puzzle 5 complete (with the Ruth). I need two more to go on puzzle 4, and then most of puzzle 1 and then all of either puzzle 8 or 9 to get me to the 36.

[Exhibitman]

It is really kind of paralyzing. I have a big wad of cash on the sideline from past sales waiting for a good investment to pick up but everything is so GDMF expensive right now that I am reluctant.

[ASF123]

There are five graded 51B Mays currently on eBay for BIN (only one for auction):

PSA 5(MK) - $24,900 (+$106.24 shipping!)
SGC 4.5 - $15,951 (although shipping is free!)
PSA Auth/Alt - $8,750
PSA Auth/Alt - $8,999.99
PSA 2 - $8,990**

**When Dean's starts looking like a pretty good price...

[dio]

I think 51 bowman mantle, his true rookie

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

I can see Koufax’s RC and Clemente’s RC having a go. I know Clemente already had a big bump in 2015 or 16 but I could see those 2 cards gaining a lot of steam.

I’ll add the T206 Eddie Collins. That card should be at the same level as Lajoie and Speaker.

I’ll also add the 39 Play Ball Ted Williams.

I'll second the Collins, he's always undervalued. Also Wajo portrait which has already passed Young and is tracking behind Red Cobbs. Also Lajoie cards in general are undervalued.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

I’ll add the T206 Eddie Collins.

i sure hope so



Probably my favorite T206 image.

[ASF123]

That, sir, is an absolutely beautiful card.

[Touch'EmAll]

Given the difference in Modern between a PSA 9 vs. PSA 10 is really big. I might guess Willie Mays & Hank Aaron's in PSA 9 has headroom.

[vansaad]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Pretty much ANY Jackie Robinson card...with only a handful of options of mainstream cards (years 1948 through 1956) I think eventually the demand for authentic, playing days cards of Jackie will reach the demand currently bestowed only on Ruth.

Jackie is likely the only baseball player that will continue to be taught about to kids in history class (for obvious reasons) literally forever.

SOME day, I think maybe even the Mantle mystique will fade a little...but Jackie Robinson and Babe Ruth will be timeless.

Funny enough, I'm not good at taking my own advice. I very recently saved up a large-ish sum of money (for me) and decided I wanted to add a major piece to my collection. I currently don't own any Jackie cards, and the only Ruth card I own is rough looking 1935 Goudey 4 in 1. I debated for WEEKS whether to add a playing days Jackie card or a playing days Ruth card. And as the weeks went by, prices on both seemed to increase.

In the end, I went with Ruth (a beat up 1931 W517)...but only because his cards seem a little scarcer (and therefore more likely to get out of my price range), and I'm hopeful this current price spike will at least level off and leave me time to still save up and grab a Jackie Robinson card. I might have to lower my condition expectations, but hopefully SOMETHING will be available in my budget.

As a Jackie collector, I may be biased, but I agree with you. Jackie has the perfect mix of historical importance that transcends baseball and great looking cards from iconic sets. The '48 Leaf, '49 Bowman, '52 and '53 Topps are all instantly recognizable, and the '47 Bond Bread portrait has gained steam as his true rookie card (and tough to find with less than 200 or so examples). All of these have soared in price along with other top cards, but I think they will become even harder to obtain next year when it's the 75th anniversary of his debut.

Good luck on your search for a nice Robinson. The '54 through '56 Topps are wonderful looking cards, too, and more plentiful in low to mid grades.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Assuming I could even hope to predict, I wouldn't reveal it here...just sayin'.

-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

These three are wishful thinking. None of them have the sort of appeal needed, either from a player perspective or a set perspective. A 1952 Topps stars run is more likely a good answer, but which ones is the question. Does anyone care about Enos Slaughter? Really?

The 1953 Paige is already off to the races; we will see a $1,000+ PSA 1 before the end of the run. Paige has such a small number of career-contemporary cards that once the 1953 skyrockets, look to oddball issues to follow: his Exhibit card, Indians team issues and regionals, etc. I'd be looking at very early cards of star Negro Leaguers who made it into MLB. Larry Doby, for example, is criminally undervalued. Orestes Minoso is another one who should be in the HOF. Another place to mine is the minor league cards of star NLers who never made it to an MLB cart but whose NL stats are going to be treated as MLB stats. That will generate a wave of enthusiasm for them.

Except the super short printed Leaf, the other two Paige cards have always seemed a relative bargain to me, as well as the Exhibit which was pretty tough to find when I was looking.

I would also consider Sadaharu Oh, there might be one of his cards out there for every 500 Mantles or maybe less.

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Does anyone care about Enos Slaughter? Really?

Hey, I like Enos Slaughter. I wouldn't pay 10K for one of his cards...

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Hey, I like Enos Slaughter. I wouldn't pay 10K for one of his cards...

For you, then:

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Except the super short printed Leaf, the other two Paige cards have always seemed a relative bargain to me, as well as the Exhibit which was pretty tough to find when I was looking.

I just checked and there isn't one Paige available on eBay right now. Only two have sold in the last four months, most recently a raw one for $420.

[jb217676]

I agree on Satchel, I picked up an Exhibit real cheap a few years ago and it's gaining some steam now! Speaking of Paige, here are front and back scans of what I have catalogued as a 1948 Satchel Paige / Bobo Newsome 5" x 8" Two Sided Premium. Never seen another and I've never been able to get any real info on it (I also have a Cobb / Rabbit Maranville from the same series). If anyone can tell me more about it that would be great, maybe I have something here LOL!

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by ASF123

That, sir, is an absolutely beautiful card.

Thanks. When I purchased it the card 'spoke' to me like few do.

[Bigdaddy]

Probably will be tightly focused around cards I don't own.

All kidding aside, I think the demand will increase for the bigger stars with the best looking cards. Folks coming into the hobby (bringing the $$) are not gong to want someone that the general public does not know (Eddie Collins) or a card that does not present well, like a black and white exhibit or the cartoonish 1938 Goudey. So what might that be?? In my opinion:

1953 Topps Mays and some of his later cards in high grade
DiMaggio cards, especially the 1941 Play Ball and the 1948-49 Leaf
Ted Williams' cards
Yogi's cards in high grade
and possibly Stan Musial's cards, as they seem to be generally undervalued.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I just checked and there isn't one Paige available on eBay right now. Only two have sold in the last four months, most recently a raw one for $420.

I paid 400 for mine which in hindsight was probably a good price.

[Touch'EmAll]

Stashed this away few years back ...

[ASF123]

51B Mays, SGC 5, just closed at $11,211.

Previous high for SGC 5 was $5,177.77 in Feb. 2020.

Insane.

[GasHouseGang]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Hey, I like Enos Slaughter. I wouldn't pay 10K for one of his cards...

I just picked up an Enos.

[jchcollins]

I would guess the remaining 50's Mantles that haven't already skyrocketed will start to move, as people start to pass on the '53 Topps and earlier as being too expensive. '56 for sure, and then cards that are great but somewhat underappreciated like 1959 Topps #10.

The '53 Paige already mentioned is another great example. Two years ago or so I had a nicely centered PSA 5 that I bought for around $400 and later sold I think for like $590. Obviously that was not the best decision.

[jchcollins]

I also think the '68 Topps Ryan RC has some room to climb still based on heights it has achieved in the past. With due respect to cards like the '63 Rose or the '67 Seaver, it's still the marquee rookie card of the decade.

[brian1961]

I would imagine it's time for several of the tougher and attractive Mickey Mantle cards to move, the ones for which there might be one high grade available for every 100 to 500 Mantle gum cards of a given year. --- Brian Powell

[Exhibitman]

Best to get on later Mantles now because they are starting to move even in lesser grades. Latest Sterling results: SGC 3 1956 gray back $960. a 1964 PSA 6.5 for $840, PSA 1 $96. 1955 Bowman PSA 2 $330 PSA 3 $420. 1961 Mantle MVP PSA 7 $450. 1963 SGC 70 $450. 1969 yellow letters PSA 5 $276.

A 1953 Topps Paige PSA 3 sold for $720.

Nothing sold in the last ten years looks like a good idea right about now.

One sure sign of the lunacy: my wife yelled at me yesterday for not spending more money on baseball cards twenty years ago. She said "Why don't you have any of these expensive cards? Didn't you have the chance to buy some?" I said "Sure, but with what? I was sole support for a new house and you and a toddler. What was I supposed to do tell you to skip meals for a week or turn off the heat because i wanted to buy a baseball card?"

[DanP]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

One sure sign of the lunacy: my wife yelled at me yesterday for not spending more money on baseball cards twenty years ago. She said "Why don't you have any of these expensive cards? Didn't you have the chance to buy some?" I said "Sure, but with what? I was sole support for a new house and you and a toddler. What was I supposed to do tell you to skip meals for a week or turn off the heat because i wanted to buy a baseball card?"

LOL.... I'm in a little different "situation". I sold my Gehrig RC, Jeter SP PSA 9, 52 Topps Mantle, etc. over 6 years ago. My wife told me then not to sell. Could I possibly admit that she was right? No way!! I sold those cards to pay for our in-ground pool. I figure that pool has cost us over $200k!! I guess I'll have to keep all of this a secret.

[DeanH3]

I have to throw out the 1947 Bond Bread Jackie Robinson. I know it's already seen increases, but I would not be surprised to see this card really explode.

[irv]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Best to get on later Mantles now because they are starting to move even in lesser grades. Latest Sterling results: SGC 3 1956 gray back $960. a 1964 PSA 6.5 for $840, PSA 1 $96. 1955 Bowman PSA 2 $330 PSA 3 $420. 1961 Mantle MVP PSA 7 $450. 1963 SGC 70 $450. 1969 yellow letters PSA 5 $276.

A 1953 Topps Paige PSA 3 sold for $720.

Nothing sold in the last ten years looks like a good idea right about now.

One sure sign of the lunacy: my wife yelled at me yesterday for not spending more money on baseball cards twenty years ago. She said "Why don't you have any of these expensive cards? Didn't you have the chance to buy some?" I said "Sure, but with what? I was sole support for a new house and you and a toddler. What was I supposed to do tell you to skip meals for a week or turn off the heat because i wanted to buy a baseball card?"

Just trying to help, Adam, not interfere, but just in case you weren't aware, this book just came out at most bookstores recently.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by irv

Just trying to help, Adam, not interfere, but just in case you weren't aware, this book just came out at most bookstores recently.

I haven't seen that before - thanks for sharing!

[scmavl]

Originally Posted by DeanH3

I have to throw out the 1947 Bond Bread Jackie Robinson. I know it's already seen increases, but I would not be surprised to see this card really explode.

I agree with this, and purchased one a little while ago. Wish I could've afforded one as nice as yours, but my beater PSA 1 will have to do. I think it's such a great looking card in-hand. Pics don't do it justice.

[Illustrious]

I'm going to agree with some of the cards already mentioned with a few additions:

1. 1939 Play Ball Ted Williams - I think this card has been somewhat overlooked the past few years but might get it's rightful due with all the new eyes on all things vintage. As the greatest hitter the game ever saw, I'm kind of surprised this still can be had for what I think are very affordable prices.

2. 1949 Bowman Jackie Robinson - With the 1948/49 Leaf already in the stratosphere, I think this card will be the consolation prize to many who want the earliest Jackie card as possible that's not completely out of reach.

3. 1952 Topps Willie Mays - While the '51 Bowman is deservedly getting the accolades it deserves now, I believe the "52 Topps is more recognizable, especially after being one of the featured cards in the Topps 2020 set where multiple artists did their own take on it.

4. 1953 Topps Satchel Paige - As already mentioned by others, this looks like it's beginning its ascent. Just a beautiful card all-around of a player with few major league card releases.

5. 1958 Topps Roger Maris - As the "true" single season HR leader without the black cloud of performance enhancing drugs, (the same way that many still think Aaron as the "true" career HR leader) I think this card is criminally undervalued.

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by ASF123

51B Mays, SGC 5, just closed at $11,211.

Previous high for SGC 5 was $5,177.77 in Feb. 2020.

Insane.

Welp, that SGC 5 is looking like a pretty good deal after a PSA 3 just sold for, wait for it...

$12,700.

Previous high: $7,812. Nine days ago.

High before that: $4200, last November.

This is just madness. The card literally tripled in 2 1/2 months.

[Johnny630]

I wish I had a crystal ball but I don’t so I do this... The Next Big Card For Me is Keeping my Powder Dry, holding onto my money until this craziness stops. If I miss it I miss it, I can live without them. Just my take on it.

[jimjim]

Originally Posted by ASF123

Welp, that SGC 5 is looking like a pretty good deal after a PSA 3 just sold for, wait for it...

$12,700.

Previous high: $7,812. Nine days ago.

High before that: $4200, last November.

This is just madness. The card literally tripled in 2 1/2 months.

Probably a stupid question but how does one tell if market manipulation is going on? With so few sales, it would be very easy to shill or other manipulation to artificially increase price. Just wondering as this started in the autograph market about 5 or so years ago with rare inscription baseballs.

[Neal]

I think there is a lot of non-collectors jumping in as buyers and holders. For vintage, I don't see this as largely a "flip game" as much as an enjoyable, investing opp. I could be wrong.

That said, they aren't looking for Eddies Collins. Who? That is what most would say if asked. A touch of Gehrig and (optional) Cobb, Jackie and Satch, Mantle and Ruth, Hank and Willie sprinkled in with some Ted, 70s HOF Bigs like Schmidt and Brett, and then there is Junior - whose 89 Upper Deck PSA 10 with a gem rate of 5% will hit 8K plus. Maybe 10K. And soon.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I wish I had a crystal ball but I don’t so I do this... The Next Big Card For Me is Keeping my Powder Dry, holding onto my money until this craziness stops. If I miss it I miss it, I can live without them. Just my take on it.

Rather miss the run up, than be left holding the bag. Only my opinion.

See the late 80s for a historic run up on anything modern

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Neal

I think there is a lot of non-collectors jumping in as buyers and holders. For vintage, I don't see this as largely a "flip game" as much as an enjoyable, investing opp. I could be wrong.

That said, they aren't looking for Eddies Collins. Who? That is what most would say if asked. A touch of Gehrig and (optional) Cobb, Jackie and Satch, Mantle and Ruth, Hank and Willie sprinkled in with some Ted, 70s HOF Bigs like Schmidt and Brett, and then there is Junior - whose 89 Upper Deck PSA 10 with a gem rate of 5% will hit 8K plus. Maybe 10K. And soon.

Did you miss what happened with Project 2020 last May/June? Yes there are lots of people jumping in, but how long are they going to stay? What happens when prices start dropping? Are they going to cash out and move on to something else? If you are in before the run up, you will be up. If you are buying near the peak, who knows?

[Neal]

Originally Posted by rats60

Did you miss what happened with Project 2020 last May/June? Yes there are lots of people jumping in, but how long are they going to stay? What happens when prices start dropping? Are they going to cash out and move on to something else? If you are in before the run up, you will be up. If you are buying near the peak, who knows?

I'm speaking of vintage cards. I bought a few Project2020 on release and a few on the after market but nothing big. I think that was a whole different ballgame than Mantle and Griffey cards seeing substantially higher pricing as of late.

[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by Illustrious

3. 1952 Topps Willie Mays - While the '51 Bowman is deservedly getting the accolades it deserves now, I believe the "52 Topps is more recognizable, especially after being one of the featured cards in the Topps 2020 set where multiple artists did their own take on it.

Completely agree here, while the 51B is his true rookie its no different than the 51/52T Mantle comparison. The 52T is the better looking card, arguably more iconic and is way undervalued compared to the Mantle. It will close the gap to the Mantle over time.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by investinrookies

It will close the gap to the Mantle over time.

I would respectfully disagree that the '52 Topps Mays will ever close the gap to the Mantle. Even disregarding the high number / low number comparison - it's had 40+ years to do that in the retail hobby, and it's never happened or even come close. That's not to say that Willie won't also reach absurd prices, but if he does my bet is that the Mantle continues to soar even higher.

[yngray1967]

1968 ryan, t206 eddie collins, 1954 banks, 1955 koufax, 1955 clemente, 1963 rose, 1967 seaver, 1967 carew.

Sent from my LM-X210(G) using Tapatalk

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I would respectfully disagree that the '52 Topps Mays will ever close the gap to the Mantle. Even disregarding the high number / low number comparison - it's had 40+ years to do that in the retail hobby, and it's never happened or even come close. That's not to say that Willie won't also reach absurd prices, but if he does my bet is that the Mantle continues to soar even higher.

Mantle will always be the king of the 52 set. Right behind him is Mays and Robinson (look what happened with this card this year!). With Mantle selling where he has and Robinson taking off where he has, it stands to reason that Mays has some catching up to do.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by hcv123

Mantle will always be the king of the 52 set. Right behind him is Mays and Robinson (look what happened with this card this year!). With Mantle selling where he has and Robinson taking off where he has, it stands to reason that Mays has some catching up to do.

Very true if that Mays goes on a run like Robinson did, it could stand to appreciate significantly.