CNN card story

[todeen]

Just remember, most people don't read to the end of an article.....where the warning about boom and bust cycle actually is located within this article. I remember that people loved beanie babies, too.

I did make a purchase this month due to FOMO. I thought, geez, if I don't get it now, will I ever be able to afford it?

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by todeen

Just remember, most people don't read to the end of an article.....where the warning about boom and bust cycle actually is located within this article. I remember that people loved beanie babies, too.

I did make a purchase this month due to FOMO. I thought, geez, if I don't get it now, will I ever be able to afford it?

Jealous.

[troutbum97]

CNN.
Chicago Tribune.
All this raging over modern cards.
Prices soaring.

Key ingredient in an asset bubble? "Irrational exuberance."

Reminds me of skyrocketing home prices in Vegas, Phoenix & Miami, etc, circa 2006.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

CNN.
Chicago Tribune.
All this raging over modern cards.
Prices soaring.

Key ingredient in an asset bubble? "Irrational exuberance."

Reminds me of skyrocketing home prices in Vegas, Phoenix & Miami, etc, circa 2006.

Did you read the article? Goldin says he wouldn't call this a bubble... winky face emoji

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by todeen

Did you read the article? Goldin says he wouldn't call this a bubble... winky face emoji

LMFAO. Trade ya some Beanie Babies for the T206s you have left.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by todeen

I did make a purchase this month due to FOMO. I thought, geez, if I don't get it now, will I ever be able to afford it?

Heh, me too. Last HOFer I can reasonably afford in the 1952 Topps set.

[carlsonjok]

Here is my conundrum. I am 15 cards away from finishing 1955 Topps and 2 cards away from finishing 1968. I just cannot wrap my melon around sports cards being an investment. I mean, logically, yes I get it. But, with my collection, there is too much emotional involvement to view it as on par with stocks or annuities.

So, when I see the prices that the Clemente and Ryan rookie cards are selling for, I just shake my head and move on. Could I afford them at current prices? Yes, but I can't do it. That kind of money is significant enough to me that I prefer to put it into an asset I have absolutely no emotional attachment to.

So, to get back to my opening, I think I would be perfectly happy to fill those binder slots with reprints and call it a day. If the bubble bursts, great. But, if it doesn't, that is fine also.

[Johnny630]

I wonder how many people are considering taking profits and selling their collections aggressively into the strength ?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I wonder how many people are considering taking profits and selling their collections aggressively into the strength ?

I've seen a lot of people selling, just my observations from here, Facebook groups etc. Some opportunities are too good to pass up, especially if it's a card or cards you're not particularly attached to.

Certain cards hold certain memories for me. I have a Raw 53 topps Willie Mays. It would probably grade a 2, if I slabbed it, I could sell it for a decent chunk of money, probably to fund the next card that I want, but I remember buying that card with my own money, as a kid, on my first trip to Cooperstown. I couldn't possibly sell it. It means to much to me. I get Nostalgic for those sort of things.

I'm sure others feel the same way, but on the flipside I'm sure there are people out there, taking advantage of the status of the market. No wrong way to go about it!

[MattyC]

This is what happens in an entirely unregulated market. First come the fake sales, a tried and true scam in our hobby (either unpaid, or bought via proxy, as guys will happily pay a small percentage fee to change the optics and sales record on a card they own many copies of)...

Then people start buzzing: “You hear X card went for THIS MUCH?!” That creates legitimate Fear Of Missing Out among collectors— who now scramble to grab cards they’ve always liked in desperate hopes of staying ahead of the manipulation wave. Yet this behavior creates its own price spikes.

Alongside these elements comprising the perfect storm of today, you have sellers who witness these massive numbers and say, “Screw it.” So what do they do? En masse, they all raise their prices on cards that were fake sold. So now buyers’ eyes get “anchored” to the new optics, the new numbers.

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their “stock picks.” This is a separate dynamic from the aforementioned fake sellers who buy many copies of a card then fake sell it or buy it in various venues to get the higher price to “take” or stick.

And yes, there are some fractional ownership companies out there now cherry picking some higher end items. And perhaps there is even some truth to the notion that there are “funds” out there, but not major hedge funds with 5 billion under management— rather a few million in pooled funds that guys want to use to make some money. But overpaying grossly without regard for eye appeal or pricing history isn’t really what Ivy League money does to make money.

The guys who profit from this climate try to write off all this activity as “The Wall Street Hedge Fund Guys” coming in. Invoking the specter of Gordon Gekko and thinking we will shut our brains off. But the real Gordon Gekko’s and their firms don’t play with cards. They don’t wake up and go, “I’ve never been into cards before and don’t know anything about them, but I like sports so let me throw a ton of money at stuff.” That is not how smart, rich people shop. Bad actors out there don’t just want us to buy into this false caricature of “the rich man who has so much money, he doesn’t care, it’s a rounding error to him.” They want us to believe an army of this fictitious creature has descended upon the hobby.

Anyways, you brew all this together, and what we get is today. And to be sure, this storm does indeed generate some “real” sales.

Ultimately, a binary set of reactions emerges. We can be happy our cards are worth more— but we may find they are not, if we try to legitimately sell them. And many collectors love their collections and do not want to sell, which renders their new worth moot.

Or, we can realize that this mess is fundamentally toxic to the market and hobby, and to a collector its only real effect is rising prices for what you’d like to buy.

So pragmatically speaking, more money is coming out of collectors’ pockets. A collector wants to keep his collection and add to his collection, not sell his collection or pieces of it into a storm largely whipped up by unethical actors. I don’t know many guys shaking pom poms and jumping for joy because the value of cards they have zero intention to sell has allegedly gone up. They’re looking at the cost of what they’d still like to buy— and when they look into the cause(s) they see lots of shade in a market with zero regulation.

I’ve found a path to staying happy is simply continuing to enjoy my collection, and refusing to add cards that I feel have been swept up in the storm surge. I enjoyed my cards when they would have lost me money upon selling, and I enjoy them the same and not an iota more now that they might make me some loot if I sold. Because I’m not a seller. Nor am I some quasi-pseudo wannabe day trader mini Gordon Gekko who conflates his cards with stocks. I’m a baseball card collector. And I can choose to not be a buyer. Which renders the madness moot. When there’s a storm or bad weather I’ll hang inside and have a blast enjoying my cards, so it’s still all good.

[philo98]

Extremely well said. Completely agree.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by MattyC

This is what happens in an entirely unregulated market. First come the fake sales, a tried and true scam in our hobby (either unpaid, or bought via proxy, as guys will happily pay a small percentage fee to change the optics and sales record on a card they own many copies of)...

Then people start buzzing: “You hear X card went for THIS MUCH?!” That creates legitimate Fear Of Missing Out among collectors— who now scramble to grab cards they’ve always liked in desperate hopes of staying ahead of the manipulation wave. Yet this behavior creates its own price spikes.

Alongside these elements comprising the perfect storm of today, you have sellers who witness these massive numbers and say, “Screw it.” So what do they do? En masse, they all raise their prices on cards that were fake sold. So now buyers’ eyes get “anchored” to the new optics, the new numbers.

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their “stock picks.” This is a separate dynamic from the aforementioned fake sellers who buy many copies of a card then fake sell it or buy it in various venues to get the higher price to “take” or stick.

And yes, there are some fractional ownership companies out there now cherry picking some higher end items. And perhaps there is even some truth to the notion that there are “funds” out there, but not major hedge funds with 5 billion under management— rather a few million in pooled funds that guys want to use to make some money. But overpaying grossly without regard for eye appeal or pricing history isn’t really what Ivy League money does to make money.

The guys who profit from this climate try to write off all this activity as “The Wall Street Hedge Fund Guys” coming in. Invoking the specter of Gordon Gekko and thinking we will shut our brains off. But the real Gordon Gekko’s and their firms don’t play with cards. They don’t wake up and go, “I’ve never been into cards before and don’t know anything about them, but I like sports so let me throw a ton of money at stuff.” That is not how smart, rich people shop. Bad actors out there don’t just want us to buy into this false caricature of “the rich man who has so much money, he doesn’t care, it’s a rounding error to him.” They want us to believe an army of this fictitious creature has descended upon the hobby.

Anyways, you brew all this together, and what we get is today. And to be sure, this storm does indeed generate some “real” sales.

Ultimately, a binary set of reactions emerges. We can be happy our cards are worth more— but we may find they are not, if we try to legitimately sell them. And many collectors love their collections and do not want to sell, which renders their new worth moot.

Or, we can realize that this mess is fundamentally toxic to the market and hobby, and to a collector its only real effect is rising prices for what you’d like to buy.

So pragmatically speaking, more money is coming out of collectors’ pockets. A collector wants to keep his collection and add to his collection, not sell his collection or pieces of it into a storm largely whipped up by unethical actors. I don’t know many guys shaking pom poms and jumping for joy because the value of cards they have zero intention to sell has allegedly gone up. They’re looking at the cost of what they’d still like to buy— and when they look into the cause(s) they see lots of shade in a market with zero regulation.

I’ve found a path to staying happy is simply continuing to enjoy my collection, and refusing to add cards that I feel have been swept up in the storm surge. I enjoyed my cards when they would have lost me money upon selling, and I enjoy them the same and not an iota more now that they might make me some loot if I sold. Because I’m not a seller. Nor am I some quasi-pseudo wannabe day trader mini Gordon Gekko who conflates his cards with stocks. I’m a baseball card collector. And I can choose to not be a buyer. Which renders the madness moot. When there’s a storm or bad weather I’ll hang inside and have a blast enjoying my cards, so it’s still all good.

Brilliantly Put Brother...

The sad part is many are buying the BS and Don't Even Realize they’re being Taken for their Money and are considered suckers.

PT Barnum Had it Right.... there is a sucker born every minute

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by MattyC

This is what happens in an entirely unregulated market. First come the fake sales, a tried and true scam in our hobby (either unpaid, or bought via proxy, as guys will happily pay a small percentage fee to change the optics and sales record on a card they own many copies of)...

Then people start buzzing: “You hear X card went for THIS MUCH?!” That creates legitimate Fear Of Missing Out among collectors— who now scramble to grab cards they’ve always liked in desperate hopes of staying ahead of the manipulation wave. Yet this behavior creates its own price spikes.

Alongside these elements comprising the perfect storm of today, you have sellers who witness these massive numbers and say, “Screw it.” So what do they do? En masse, they all raise their prices on cards that were fake sold. So now buyers’ eyes get “anchored” to the new optics, the new numbers.

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their “stock picks.” This is a separate dynamic from the aforementioned fake sellers who buy many copies of a card then fake sell it or buy it in various venues to get the higher price to “take” or stick.

And yes, there are some fractional ownership companies out there now cherry picking some higher end items. And perhaps there is even some truth to the notion that there are “funds” out there, but not major hedge funds with 5 billion under management— rather a few million in pooled funds that guys want to use to make some money. But overpaying grossly without regard for eye appeal or pricing history isn’t really what Ivy League money does to make money.

The guys who profit from this climate try to write off all this activity as “The Wall Street Hedge Fund Guys” coming in. Invoking the specter of Gordon Gekko and thinking we will shut our brains off. But the real Gordon Gekko’s and their firms don’t play with cards. They don’t wake up and go, “I’ve never been into cards before and don’t know anything about them, but I like sports so let me throw a ton of money at stuff.” That is not how smart, rich people shop. Bad actors out there don’t just want us to buy into this false caricature of “the rich man who has so much money, he doesn’t care, it’s a rounding error to him.” They want us to believe an army of this fictitious creature has descended upon the hobby.

Anyways, you brew all this together, and what we get is today. And to be sure, this storm does indeed generate some “real” sales.

Ultimately, a binary set of reactions emerges. We can be happy our cards are worth more— but we may find they are not, if we try to legitimately sell them. And many collectors love their collections and do not want to sell, which renders their new worth moot.

Or, we can realize that this mess is fundamentally toxic to the market and hobby, and to a collector its only real effect is rising prices for what you’d like to buy.

So pragmatically speaking, more money is coming out of collectors’ pockets. A collector wants to keep his collection and add to his collection, not sell his collection or pieces of it into a storm largely whipped up by unethical actors. I don’t know many guys shaking pom poms and jumping for joy because the value of cards they have zero intention to sell has allegedly gone up. They’re looking at the cost of what they’d still like to buy— and when they look into the cause(s) they see lots of shade in a market with zero regulation.

I’ve found a path to staying happy is simply continuing to enjoy my collection, and refusing to add cards that I feel have been swept up in the storm surge. I enjoyed my cards when they would have lost me money upon selling, and I enjoy them the same and not an iota more now that they might make me some loot if I sold. Because I’m not a seller. Nor am I some quasi-pseudo wannabe day trader mini Gordon Gekko who conflates his cards with stocks. I’m a baseball card collector. And I can choose to not be a buyer. Which renders the madness moot. When there’s a storm or bad weather I’ll hang inside and have a blast enjoying my cards, so it’s still all good.

I am the first in line for a good conspiracy theory. That said I find it hard to wrap y head around the idea that the supposed manipulation you speak of is stretching as far and wide as the market shift appears to be - across all auction houses and EBay, across all sports and must be hundreds if not thousands of different cards. That would have to be one hell of a level of organization.
That said, I agree there are multiple instances of manipulation and shilling and people just trying to create suckers out of many. I just choose not to believe that is the majority of what is going on.
If you look at the relative values of baseball cards compared to other more mature collectible categories, the values of the "top of the market" stuff hasn't been in the same league (pun intended). As I have shared in many prior posts - the card market ultimately is one of simple supply and demand economics. There is no question as to a finite supply -whether 3, 300, 3000, or 3000000. So demand and price are the 2 fluctuating variables here. I do believe the majority of the demand spike is real. Will it last? A lot better shot on low population items. 300+ PSA 10 Jordan rookies? That one would be making me nervous.
I believe some of the price spikes we are seeing will stick. I believe others will not. Time will tell.
Buy with your head, not over it and buy what you like!

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by MattyC

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their “stock picks.”

This resonates with me. I prefer to investments where there is no emotional attachment. I invest in what I know and use the huge body of information in the public domain for research to increase my understanding.

Sports card investing is really investing in a personality. In some cases, like Babe Ruth, there is some safety because there is likely nothing about the personality that is not already known. But, too much of the hot sports cards are associated with extant people. And the investment could be wiped out in an instant when new information comes out. In an example from outside the sports card world, someone who "invested" in Kevin Spacey early in his career would have been real happy with his return in January 2017. But that "investment" would be worthless by the end of the same year.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by carlsonjok

Here is my conundrum. I am 15 cards away from finishing 1955 Topps and 2 cards away from finishing 1968. I just cannot wrap my melon around sports cards being an investment. I mean, logically, yes I get it. But, with my collection, there is too much emotional involvement to view it as on par with stocks or annuities.

So, when I see the prices that the Clemente and Ryan rookie cards are selling for, I just shake my head and move on. Could I afford them at current prices? Yes, but I can't do it. That kind of money is significant enough to me that I prefer to put it into an asset I have absolutely no emotional attachment to.

So, to get back to my opening, I think I would be perfectly happy to fill those binder slots with reprints and call it a day. If the bubble bursts, great. But, if it doesn't, that is fine also.

Reprints? What the big deal? That's a great set! I don't collect sets anymore, but I used to love that one. Get BACK OUT THERE AND BUY, BUY, BUY. Surely you could justify cards like these? How bad could it be to finish the thing up? You must have many hours into it?

[jimjim]

Originally Posted by carlsonjok

Here is my conundrum. I am 15 cards away from finishing 1955 Topps and 2 cards away from finishing 1968. I just cannot wrap my melon around sports cards being an investment. I mean, logically, yes I get it. But, with my collection, there is too much emotional involvement to view it as on par with stocks or annuities.

So, when I see the prices that the Clemente and Ryan rookie cards are selling for, I just shake my head and move on. Could I afford them at current prices? Yes, but I can't do it. That kind of money is significant enough to me that I prefer to put it into an asset I have absolutely no emotional attachment to.

So, to get back to my opening, I think I would be perfectly happy to fill those binder slots with reprints and call it a day. If the bubble bursts, great. But, if it doesn't, that is fine also.

You said this so well. There are three or four cards that I had been watching since 2019 waiting for nice versions that I missed out on when things took off in 2020. Yes, I can afford them now. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact we have all been collecting for so many years, that the card that was $400 two to years ago is now $3000. Just hard for me to fork over that kind of money when I know what it was two years ago. Even though I can afford it. And I agree, I just don’t think of these as investments. I know they are, but when you’ve been collecting for 30 years, it’s hard to think that way.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Heh, me too. Last HOFer I can reasonably afford in the 1952 Topps set.

I purchased a 1915 CJ Speaker. I can justify to my wife cards priced less than $1000. But when it breaks that barrier.... it's off limits.

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