The Future

[samosa4u]

For the first time ever, I am seeing videos on YouTube that show guys in their early-twenties slapping down $75 - $100,000 US at card shows. Like where the f**k are they getting that kind of money from? Oh yeah, from flipping cards - where else? They think they can keep doing it until they have enough to buy a seaside mansion. One guy even commented how a Kobe Bryant rookie at $5,000 US was a good buy since he was getting inducted into the HOF. Folks, this was like a $700 US card before the pandemic started. How the f**k is that a good buy?

I think the future prices will largely depend on how many of these "investors" leave the hobby once society returns to normal. Another thing we have to look at is the length of time it takes for this to happen. For example, will half of these guys be gone by 2025? More than half? How many will stay in the hobby for the next ten or so years? Of course, nobody knows this.

Oh, and here is a card:

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

...a Kobe Bryant rookie at $5,000 US was a good buy since he was getting inducted into the HOF. Folks, this was like a $700 US card before the pandemic started. How the f**k is that a good buy?

I think the future prices will largely depend on how many of these "investors" leave the hobby once society returns to normal...

The meteoric rise in largely unsustainable prices has led to a high-stakes game of Modern Card Musical Chairs.

I'd hate to be one of the people left standing when the music stops.

[bmattioli]

I've wondered how many members are collectors that don't really care about values and collect just to collect. Me? I don't sell and am a collector of things I wish I had in my youth..

[JollyElm]

The 'problem' with trying to decipher what's going to happen in the future is that it really doesn't matter at all, does it? The collecting mindset of WANT continually drives us all (to varying degrees) to seek out and obtain hits to our need lists or want lists. I want to meet the person who thinks the market bubble is going to burst, so they're happy to wait a year or two to pick up the card they really want...instead of making it happen somehow, someway right now or in the very near future, even if it is above their means. I imagine that's a pretty rare individual to find in this card collecting world of ours.

Originally Posted by bmattioli

I've wondered how many members are collectors that don't really care about values and collect just to collect. Me? I don't sell and am a collector of things I wish I had in my youth..

This is me. Been collecting on and off since 1972. Haven't sold a card. The market has had ups and downs but I could care less. I love baseball and baseball cards for the pure enjoyment. Same with my other hobbies of vintage toys from my childhood and hot rods from my younger days.

[egri]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

They think they can keep doing it until they have enough to buy a seaside mansion. One guy even commented how a Kobe Bryant rookie at $5,000 US was a good buy since he was getting inducted into the HOF. Folks, this was like a $700 US card before the pandemic started. How the f**k is that a good buy?

I think that mindset has been around for a while; a few years ago, there was a member on here bragging about how his collection (the centerpiece was a pair of Sammy Sosa’s cleats) would sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars at auction and he would use the proceeds to retire young to an estate in Greenwich, Conn. Nowadays the scale is certainly larger, but there’s always been dreamers in this hobby.

[edjs]

​

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by egri

I think that mindset has been around for a while; a few years ago, there was a member on here bragging about how his collection (the centerpiece was a pair of Sammy Sosa’s cleats) would sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars at auction and he would use the proceeds to retire young to an estate in Greenwich, Conn. Nowadays the scale is certainly larger, but there’s always been dreamers in this hobby.

Adam! I do wonder what became of that guy.

[egri]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Adam! I do wonder what became of that guy.

I found relatively recent article on his collection here. He's still planning to auction his collection and retire off the proceeds, though at least he had the sense to not mention Greenwich.

[HistoricNewspapers]

Growth. There are 1.8 billion more people in the world today compared to the year 2000. That is a lot of new customers for the world's commodities. It will only grow from there.

Sports cards are more of a niche area compared to the overall economy, but vintage sports cards have a very set supply, so even a small increase in collectors can have a huge impact. However, new cards do come out every year, so the taste of the collectors play a big part.

There are 1,500 PSA graded Willie Mays rookies, and one can guess that there are probably another 2,500 in other holders or raw. That is not a lot of supply.

1. How many of the billions of new people in the world will add to the buyers of sports cards? Will they replace the dying collectors at a higher or lower rate?

2. Society preferences. How many of the recent covid collectors will stay? Can it go "viral" with so many people promoting their cards and $$$ via social media and internet?

3. Civil War or WW3. There is always that...then all bets are off.

4,000 Willie Mays rookies to buy. If only 15,000 new serious collectors emerge from those above possibilities...man, think about that.

Looking at the overall picture, I personally think the market will only go up overall, but not without some hills and valleys.

The battle will be within the market, not the market itself. Shiny vs vintage. Stars vs sets. High grade vs collector grade. Etc..

I would not underestimate the current group of kids. This is anecdotal, but in the mid 80's in middle school, there weren't many card collectors in school...just a few in each grade. By college, I was one of two people in my sphere who had collected cards and I was an athlete. Collecting by kids wasn't as dense as it is made out to be. It was certainly wide spread, but it wasn't like everyone was doing it.

You would be surprised right now with the kids. They know their sports. It isn't just modern either. We had some informal trivia the other day at school and they know the players. They are always wearing pro jerseys and stuff.

They are into cards too. In just the last month alone I've been involved in three baseball card conversations with kids, brought up by them.

One kid brought his moms cards to school. I commented on his Frank Thomas card.

Another teacher and a group of kids were talking cards, and the teacher mentioned the "game" that was on the back of the cards. He couldn't remember which year it was. I told him it was 1978 Topps. He was talking with a few kids about cards and he was telling them to keep them in good condition.

Another 3rd grade kid brought an autographed ball and asked me if I knew the signature. I looked at it, and I said "Fergie Jenkins." He looked at another kid with a look of "I told you so."

Kids haven't changed, contrary to popular belief. We change. I remember my first year teaching how a couple of teachers were talking about "today's kids," having changed, and that was in 1994. Then 25 years later a couple of younger teachers are saying the same about "today's kids." I laughed inside my head because 25 years ago THEY were the generation being talked about.

They are just as kind, silly, sneaky, and brutally honest as we all were when we were kids. As much of a disconnect that older generations look at them now, they are the same, and they will mostly connect to their childhood as a time of fondness and look back at the time when 'life was good'. There will be a sentiment for them as there is for us now. I even see it with my own oldest kids how they look back at some of the shows on Disney Channel and how "there aren't shows like that anymore on TV".

The future is good. Now if social media would just stick to cards instead of the constant strife we always see...

[Exhibitman]

The only thing we know for sure is that anyone who says they know the future is full of shit and just trying to sell something.

"We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. And remember, my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future."

--Criswell, Plan 9 From Outer Space

On The Doors theme, I feel this set of lyrics is particularly appropriate given our recent fire seasons.

I see your hair is burnin'
Hills are filled with fire

If they say I never loved you
You know they are a liar

Drivin' down your freeways
Midnight alleys roam

Cops in cars, the topless bars
Never saw a woman
So alone

And a card:

[Leon]

Originally Posted by HistoricNewspapers

Growth. There are 1.8 billion more people in the world today compared to the year 2000. That is a lot of new customers for the world's commodities. It will only grow from there.

Sports cards are more of a niche area compared to the overall economy, but vintage sports cards have a very set supply, so even a small increase in collectors can have a huge impact. However, new cards do come out every year, so the taste of the collectors play a big part.

There are 1,500 PSA graded Willie Mays rookies, and one can guess that there are probably another 2,500 in other holders or raw. That is not a lot of supply.

1. How many of the billions of new people in the world will add to the buyers of sports cards? Will they replace the dying collectors at a higher or lower rate?

2. Society preferences. How many of the recent covid collectors will stay? Can it go "viral" with so many people promoting their cards and $$$ via social media and internet?

3. Civil War or WW3. There is always that...then all bets are off.

4,000 Willie Mays rookies to buy. If only 15,000 new serious collectors emerge from those above possibilities...man, think about that.

Looking at the overall picture, I personally think the market will only go up overall, but not without some hills and valleys.

The battle will be within the market, not the market itself. Shiny vs vintage. Stars vs sets. High grade vs collector grade. Etc..

I would not underestimate the current group of kids. This is anecdotal, but in the mid 80's in middle school, there weren't many card collectors in school...just a few in each grade. By college, I was one of two people in my sphere who had collected cards and I was an athlete. Collecting by kids wasn't as dense as it is made out to be. It was certainly wide spread, but it wasn't like everyone was doing it.

You would be surprised right now with the kids. They know their sports. It isn't just modern either. We had some informal trivia the other day at school and they know the players. They are always wearing pro jerseys and stuff.

They are into cards too. In just the last month alone I've been involved in three baseball card conversations with kids, brought up by them.

One kid brought his moms cards to school. I commented on his Frank Thomas card.

Another teacher and a group of kids were talking cards, and the teacher mentioned the "game" that was on the back of the cards. He couldn't remember which year it was. I told him it was 1978 Topps. He was talking with a few kids about cards and he was telling them to keep them in good condition.

Another 3rd grade kid brought an autographed ball and asked me if I knew the signature. I looked at it, and I said "Fergie Jenkins." He looked at another kid with a look of "I told you so."

Kids haven't changed, contrary to popular belief. We change. I remember my first year teaching how a couple of teachers were talking about "today's kids," having changed, and that was in 1994. Then 25 years later a couple of younger teachers are saying the same about "today's kids." I laughed inside my head because 25 years ago THEY were the generation being talked about.

They are just as kind, silly, sneaky, and brutally honest as we all were when we were kids. As much of a disconnect that older generations look at them now, they are the same, and they will mostly connect to their childhood as a time of fondness and look back at the time when 'life was good'. There will be a sentiment for them as there is for us now. I even see it with my own oldest kids how they look back at some of the shows on Disney Channel and how "there aren't shows like that anymore on TV".

The future is good. Now if social media would just stick to cards instead of the constant strife we always see...

Nice post with some interesting stuff to think about.
And a random Count Dracula card.

[packs]

Kids are not buying cards. What kid has $250 plus to spend on a box of 2021 Bowman? The current card industry isn't designed for children. It's the same bums you see at every show who have more money now because they haven't been spending as much.