Why do many put so much emphasis on PAST sales??

[HercDriver]

Yep...that's my favorite line on this board. Oh, so you made a bad purchase and you want me to bail you out? What if you had $500 into it, and were selling it for $1000? Would you then take $550, since that's all you had into it? What you paid is irrelevant to the current value. Just like a stock on the NYSE.

Originally Posted by Eric72

Don't forget the often-cited (but completely irrelevant) data point:

"...but I have XXX into it...

[RCMcKenzie]

I agree with the op. I don't look at past sales. I keep bidding until the other guy stops. Usually, I'm the other guy that stops. I think I have not accepted the inflation, like when my aunt used to send me $5 for my birthday, because to her, $5 was a lot of money.

[icollectDCsports]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I agree with the op. I don't look at past sales. I keep bidding until the other guy stops. Usually, I'm the other guy that stops. I think I have not accepted the inflation, like when my aunt used to send me $5 for my birthday, because to her, $5 was a lot of money.

But isn't your bidding informed by the price you think you'd need to pay to purchase another similar item? And what would that be based upon, if not some sense of what other such items typically cost. Of course, if it's hard to find a comparable item or if sales are sporadic and not recent, then there's less relevant info available, but the greater the number of recent sales of comparable items there are, the more you'd want to know and benefit from that info.

[bbcard1]

You know, ya gotta use something. I collect a lot of different stuff and it's funny to watch people who are trying to buy someone who is hot like Vlad or Soto complaining that people are not selling at month old comps.

[Jewish-collector]

A vintage baseball card is like a boat. You're only happy when you buy it and when you sell it.

[Redleg25]

As I mentioned in the open, I can see using past sale as a VERY loose guide, but too many consider previous sales the gospel. One, those deals are gone. Can't buy shares of Microsoft for $100 a piece anymore. Two, no two vintage cards are the same. Here's an example: first 54 Mick is mine. No underlying issues, back as clean as the front. Second is another PSA 1. Hey, both are PSA 1 so accurate comps!🙂

[G1911]

The problem with these Mantles is that they are not fair comps - a cards condition and the number put on the slab by a company are different things. You’d need a beater comp for the second, beat up poor. Obviously cards in different aesthetic conditions will sell for more or less, but that has nothing to do with using comps as a concept. Like everything in the world, if one does it wrong, it will seem wrong.

[Snapolit1]

Looking at past sales of other cards is obviously important.

Would you feel comfortable bidding on a house completely blind to what other homes in the neighborhood and street recently sold for because "hey, all houses are different when you think about it." Well, sure, but certainly doesn't mean median home sales in the neighborhood and on the street are not critical data points to consider. Not the be all and end all of course.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I agree with the op. I don't look at past sales. I keep bidding until the other guy stops. Usually, I'm the other guy that stops. I think I have not accepted the inflation, like when my aunt used to send me $5 for my birthday, because to her, $5 was a lot of money.

With all those sweet fivers around from your aunt, you should be able to bid higher than the other guy, no?

[Mike D.]

The market is imperfect. 2005 Topps U&H Verlander. Last sale was for $49. Prices on eBay BIN $51-115.

I got one via auction late last night for $20.50. Does that mean it’s worth 50% less (or more) than everyone thinks? Did I just get a good deal? Both? Neither?

[jefferyepayne]

I subscribe to VCP and use it as a loose guide for a card's trend and price. But as many other have said, it is only one data point in a sea of other considerations.

One thing I do do is take out ALL BIN prices in VCP and ALL sales from a certain large seller as well. I personally don't believe much of that data with all the shenanigan's that go on in our hobby.

Obviously a conservative approach but it has worked well for me. I think I suggested to VCP at some point that they allow you to 'ignore' particular sales when looking at their pricing data but don't think this functionality exists right now. So I do it by hand. I'm hoping some day this feature appears (hint, hint).

jeff

[kmac32]

I don’t know about imphasis but I do know about emphasis. It gives you a basic guideline on where to start on price. If something is worth a certain value and a seller wants twice what it is worth then it gives a buyer an idea what to offer. Same is true on the opposite side where a buyer offers half of what a card is worth then negotiations can proceed from there. Both sides need to be reasonable if a deal is to be made.

It always gets me when a seller has a card but wants a buyer to throw out a price without the buyer having any idea where the seller is at. If there is really interest in selling a card, at least shoot back a realistic offer. The game of guess the price is really not fun or fair to anyone.

My two cents

Kmac