The Willie Mays price boom

raulus · #1 09-07-2022, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Volod

You may be right, but where is the rationality behind the phenomenon, if any? None of those guys were lowered into the ground with their coffins stuffed with thousands of their cards, so what is driving the "bubble" expectation? There is, of course, the projected scarcity of autographed collectibles, but that aspect of the market is relatively small compared to vintage cards in general. So, is the anticipated skyrocketing in value simply due to Willie's unexpected longevity compared to his contemporaries, with marketers getting anxious that he might even outlive them and cause them to lose out on the bubble expansion?

I suspect it�s mostly a function of the attention and tributes that come when the end arrives. We humans, and Americans in particular, have a real short attention span coupled with an extreme recency bias. Something that grabs our attention and causes us to focus a bit on a particular person is likely to drive increased interest in that person, at least for a while. While not the end, think about how much Jordan�s pieces spiked in value simply because the attention from the ESPN 30 for 30 special. Similar phenomenon here, with maybe slightly less attention than the special received.

It would be interesting to see how long the phenomenon has lasted in the past, and whether some portion of the price increase sticks long term. Naturally, you would have to filter out the more general market increases (or decreases) to try to isolate just this element.

packs · #2 09-07-2022, 10:31 AM

I think it can explained this way: for a long time his cards were inexplicably cheap. I felt the same way about Mantle. Six or so years ago I bought a 1951 Bowman Mantle SGC 10 for $1,600 all in. I specifically sought that card out because I knew it was an iconic rookie of an iconic player and for some reason I could obtain one in my price range.

I circled back for the Mays for the same reason but sadly missed the boat while I was doing the same thing with other players. I bought Cobb T206s and a T205 for what I considered to be modest prices even 6 years ago.

Time has caught up. A lot of other people noticed the cards were in reach too. Now they aren't.

hockeyhockey · #3 09-07-2022, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I think it can explained this way: for a long time his cards were inexplicably cheap. I felt the same way about Mantle. Six or so years ago I bought a 1951 Bowman Mantle SGC 10 for $1,600 all in.

wow. you got a 10 for $1,600? i only got back into the hobby a few years ago, but that seems insane.

Casey2296 · #4 09-07-2022, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockeyhockey

wow. you got a 10 for $1,600? i only got back into the hobby a few years ago, but that seems insane.

SGC 10 on the old green label system is graded poor, still an incredible buy.

luciobar1980 · #5 09-08-2022, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockeyhockey

wow. you got a 10 for $1,600? i only got back into the hobby a few years ago, but that seems insane.

This needs to be further explained or is missing a zero or two.

packs · #6 09-08-2022, 08:12 AM

What explanation could there be? I won the auction. Not everyone waited for the pandemic to get into cards:

I bought this card in grad school 10 years ago. It cost $515 and I bought it on eBay:

luciobar1980 · #7 09-08-2022, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

What explanation could there be? I won the auction. Not everyone waited for the pandemic to get into cards:

I bought this card in grad school 10 years ago. It cost $515 and I bought it on eBay:

I'm not sure if you're implying that I only got into cards during the pandemic. Tone is lost in message boards! In any case, I didn't wait until the pandemic, I've been into cards a long time.

I misunderstood. I thought you had gotten a 10, like Gem Mint, for $1,600. Haha.

packs · #8 09-08-2022, 08:25 AM

Oh, no, haha an SGC 10. Not PSA 10.

I was trying to back up my point. That for a long time iconic cards were in reach of modest collectors. Now you have to be pretty well stacked to get into these markets. Heritage just sold a PSA 1 51 Mantle with scrap book residue on the back for $9,300 with juice.

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