Omnious sign in market?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by RhodeyRhode

I don't think market is going at all, to me it seems there are so many quality items all flooding the auctions so people are waiting for the item they really want then are ponying up for it. Where as before not as many options gave people the fomo to hurry and bid since it might be a while before hits market again. The past 6 months the amount of rare items and cards up for auction has to be at a high, and for those not rare say the 33 ruth something in grades 2-5 seems to be going higher every auction. Just my opinion but probably way off

Items might be flooding the market, but in our space especially, the cards all have unique attributes so they aren't common even when there are hundreds or thousands of examples. The Goudey Ruth 144 is actually quite common. Show me one for sale that has 50/50 centering though. Those are a needle in a haystack.

Great stuff is appreciating and the mid to lower stuff is staying the same or having a slight reduction, imo...
.

[lumberjack]

As far as photographs go, the market is a mile wide and two inches deep.
There are guys who will spend more for a photo than Babe Ruth got from the Red Sox. It's just that they are pretty discriminating and there aren't many of them.

And taste, which changes over time. In our prior century, when Martha Stewart ruled, you couldn't afford brown furniture or Depression glass. Now you can't give it away. Younger people don't associate with furnishing a house that looks like something their grandmother would have owned.

Question is: Will this happen to cards; will someone be left holding the bag.
lumberjack

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Leon

Items might be flooding the market, but in our space especially, the cards all have unique attributes so they aren't common even when there are hundreds or thousands of examples. The Goudey Ruth 144 is actually quite common. Show me one for sale that has 50/50 centering though. Those are a needle in a haystack.

Great stuff is appreciating and the mid to lower stuff is staying the same or having a slight reduction, imo...
.

This is the key. I don't think most collectors quite realize the extent to which this is true. I went through every single 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson card, one-by-one on VCP, and tallied up the number of cards that were dead 50/50 centered and the number that were fairly close, but just slightly off (say 48/52 one way and 50/50 the other). There were ~1,000 sales to comb through (note, I only looked at non-creased cards, mostly VG/VG-EX or better). Out of those ~1,000, there were 9 (yes NINE) dead-centered copies and only 22 that were close. Obviously, the Jackies don't have the exact same pop report as the Mantle, but it should be a directionally accurate approximation for it since the two cards were next to each other on the sheets, both being double printed.

As you said. Finding a 52T Mantle is easy. Finding a centered one? Good luck with that.

[Snowman]

As far as the differences in hammer price between the SGC 5 Mantle that recently sold on REA for $306k and the one that sold on Goldin the other night for $146k, I think it's actually pretty straight-forward.

The $306k example looks like a true 5 condition-wise. It is in EX condition. And, most importantly, it is dead-centered left to right with no tilt. For centering-obsessed OCDers like me, that L/R centering is often far more important than top/bottom centering. Buyers will pay a significant premium for the centering on this Mantle.

Contrast that with the $146k Mantle, and you can clearly see an evil tilt to the image, most noticeable on the left edge. Image tilt is the spawn of Satan to centering OCD collectors. It's not enough for the image to be in or near the middle of the card. The lines need to be parallel and border widths equal. Sure, the one on the right I would still expect to outsell a comparably conditioned card with a more significant shift in centering, but this isn't a card that eye-appeal guys are going to be jumping up and down for, whereas the one on the left most definitely is.

However, there's one more factor that surely played into the hammer price here. That SGC "5" on the right from Goldin is NOT an EX card. Those bottom two corners would NEVER grade at a 5 today. Not from PSA or SGC. This card was graded back in 2014, when standards were quite a bit looser (whereas the one on the left was graded in 2019). High-end vintage buyers are getting smarter. They know the one on the left is EX and the one on the right is a VG-EX card wearing an SGC 5 tuxedo. They're bidding accordingly. It's the other side of the same coin for why I keep having to "overpay" when I find cards that are under-graded.

Here they are side-by-side. You can decide for yourselves whether or not the differences are worth an extra $160k, but the centering difference is worth a lot, and the fact that one is EX while the other is VG-EX is probably worth a lot more, in my opinion.

Also, the one on the left is a Type 1 Mantle, and the one on the right is the Type 2 (and supposedly less desireable). Though I think this matters less than people argue.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Snowman

As far as the differences in hammer price between the SGC 5 Mantle that recently sold on REA for $306k and the one that sold on Goldin the other night for $146k, I think it's actually pretty straight-forward.

The $306k example looks like a true 5 condition-wise. It is in EX condition. And, most importantly, it is dead-centered left to right with no tilt. For centering-obsessed OCDers like me, that L/R centering is often far more important than top/bottom centering. Buyers will pay a significant premium for the centering on this Mantle.

Contrast that with the $146k Mantle, and you can clearly see an evil tilt to the image, most noticeable on the left edge. Image tilt is the spawn of Satan to centering OCD collectors. It's not enough for the image to be in or near the middle of the card. The lines need to be parallel and border widths equal. Sure, the one on the right I would still expect to outsell a comparably conditioned card with a more significant shift in centering, but this isn't a card that eye-appeal guys are going to be jumping up and down for, whereas the one on the left most definitely is.

However, there's one more factor that surely played into the hammer price here. That SGC "5" on the right from Goldin is NOT an EX card. Those bottom two corners would NEVER grade at a 5 today. Not from PSA or SGC. This card was graded back in 2014, when standards were quite a bit looser (whereas the one on the left was graded in 2019). High-end vintage buyers are getting smarter. They know the one on the left is EX and the one on the right is a VG-EX card wearing an SGC 5 tuxedo. They're bidding accordingly. It's the other side of the same coin for why I keep having to "overpay" when I find cards that are under-graded.

Here they are side-by-side. You can decide for yourselves whether or not the differences are worth an extra $160k, but the centering difference is worth a lot, and the fact that one is EX while the other is VG-EX is probably worth a lot more, in my opinion.

Wow those bottom corners on the card on the right (the one sold by Goldin) are BAD. Goes to show that just because you put it in a new slab does not mean people are going to pay (much) more money for it. You can't polish a turd.

Damn, that really shows you just how much grading has changed since 2014. Great side-by-side comparison.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Wow those bottom corners on the card from the right (the one sold by Goldin) are BAD. Just goes to show that just because you put it in a new slab does not mean people are going to pay (much) more money for it. You can't polish a turd.

Damn, that really shows you just how much grading has changed since 2014. Great side-by-side comparison.

Ya, they have moved the goalposts on us by quite a bit. It's a shame. The crazy thing is that there are even some graders at PSA today that would put that Mantle on the right in a PSA 3 holder (though I doubt they'd be the ones who actually get to grade it, surely that would be Reza). But they are definitely there, and I've gotten some cards recently that are nicer than this Mantle in PSA 3 holders (all of which I cracked out and got grade bumps from).

I'm not sure though which standard I prefer. I suppose it's somewhat arbitrary, but the lack of consistency is a major problem. Maybe the card on the right *should* be the 5 and the one on the left *should* be a 6? I don't know, but with today's standards, the one on the left is a 5 and the one on the right is a low-end 4 at best.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Ya, they have moved the goalposts on us by quite a bit. It's a shame. The crazy thing is that there are even some graders at PSA today that would put that Mantle on the right in a PSA 3 holder (though I doubt they'd be the ones who actually get to grade it, surely that would be Reza). But they are definitely there, and I've gotten some cards recently that are nicer than this Mantle in PSA 3 holders (all of which I cracked out and got grade bumps from).

I'm not sure though which standard I prefer. I suppose it's somewhat arbitrary, but the lack of consistency is a major problem. Maybe the card on the right *should* be the 5 and the one on the left *should* be a 6? I don't know, but with today's standards, the one on the left is a 5 and the one on the right is a low-end 4 at best.

Yeah, goalposts keep moving. I agree that you could make the case the one on the left (sold by REA) should be a 6, even by today's standards. Would love to see any pics you have of cards you have cracked out of PSA slabs and gotten a bump from a different TPG. I think that could be its own thread.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Yeah, goalposts keep moving. I agree that you could make the case the one on the left (sold by REA) should be a 6, even by today's standards. Would love to see any pics you have of cards you have cracked out of PSA slabs and gotten a bump from a different TPG. I think that could be its own thread.

I probably won't post them, unfortunately. The current landscape of social media and hobby heroes aiming to crucify people for the crime of "cracking a card out of it's holder" as if that were some sort of deceitful tactic or some such nonsense is just something I don't care to deal with. I could write a book on it though lol. Sometimes it's the same TPG in fact. I just depends on the card and what's "wrong" with it that determines who I decide to send it to (well, that and the cost). One thing I can tell you with 100% certainty though is that PSA is NOT using their Genamint "AI" tech to determine whether or not a card has been previously graded and to reassign that same grade when it shows up again. Or at least their computer vision algorithms are failing to detect them if so, because I've cracked out numerous under-graded cards and sent them in for grade bumps. Even cards that I submitted myself and resubmitted one month later using the same account. They are not consistent at all. I used to be able to predict my grades with a high degree of accuracy with each TPD, rarely being even 1 grade off. That's still true for me with SGC, but with PSA, I get cards back that are off by 2 full grades with at least some degree of regularity. In both directions even, though more often they are undergraded than they are overgraded (per their own standards that is).

[tiger8mush]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Damn, that really shows you just how much grading has changed since 2014. Great side-by-side comparison.

If both were raw, side by side, I'd seriously consider the one on the right. Yes, the corners have more wear, but the light surface wear on the left one is more distracting to me than the right's bad corners.

Especially if you said the one on the right is 1/2 the price.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Snowman

As far as the differences in hammer price between the SGC 5 Mantle that recently sold on REA for $306k and the one that sold on Goldin the other night for $146k, I think it's actually pretty straight-forward.

The $306k example looks like a true 5 condition-wise. It is in EX condition. And, most importantly, it is dead-centered left to right with no tilt. For centering-obsessed OCDers like me, that L/R centering is often far more important than top/bottom centering. Buyers will pay a significant premium for the centering on this Mantle.

Contrast that with the $146k Mantle, and you can clearly see an evil tilt to the image, most noticeable on the left edge. Image tilt is the spawn of Satan to centering OCD collectors. It's not enough for the image to be in or near the middle of the card. The lines need to be parallel and border widths equal. Sure, the one on the right I would still expect to outsell a comparably conditioned card with a more significant shift in centering, but this isn't a card that eye-appeal guys are going to be jumping up and down for, whereas the one on the left most definitely is.

However, there's one more factor that surely played into the hammer price here. That SGC "5" on the right from Goldin is NOT an EX card. Those bottom two corners would NEVER grade at a 5 today. Not from PSA or SGC. This card was graded back in 2014, when standards were quite a bit looser (whereas the one on the left was graded in 2019). High-end vintage buyers are getting smarter. They know the one on the left is EX and the one on the right is a VG-EX card wearing an SGC 5 tuxedo. They're bidding accordingly. It's the other side of the same coin for why I keep having to "overpay" when I find cards that are under-graded.

Here they are side-by-side. You can decide for yourselves whether or not the differences are worth an extra $160k, but the centering difference is worth a lot, and the fact that one is EX while the other is VG-EX is probably worth a lot more, in my opinion.

Also, the one on the left is a Type 1 Mantle, and the one on the right is the Type 2 (and supposedly less desireable). Though I think this matters less than people argue.

I always enjoy reading your opinions

I agree with you that the REA Mantle is better than the Goldin Mantle. I just don't think it is double the price better. Maybe the one 5 is a reach at a 5, but the other higher grade 5, while nice, is still a 5.

[babraham]

Leland's sale prices on their auction ending tonight seemed to be down (at least on the lots I was watching).

15 CJ Jackson PSA 2 for under $30k
51B Mantle Rookie PSA 4 for $15k (recent comps between $18-23k)

Also...this boggled my mind:

86F Jordan Rookie PSA 10 $191k
86F Jordan Rookie SGC 10 $74k

$117k more for the same card/same grade with the PSA holder? Ouch.

[3-2-count]

In my opinion the Psa 2 1915 CJ Jax and Psa 4 1951 Bowman Mantle examples aren’t a reflection of much due to both having serious condition issues. I think their ending price was accurate.

The 15 CJ Jax was terribly faded due to God knows what with quite a bit of paper loss on the reverse and the 51 Mick had horrid centering with terrible registration.

The cards sold for what they are!

The final price discrepancy on the two Jordan rookies is absolutely ridiculous though! Just silly!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by babraham

Leland's sale prices on their auction ending tonight seemed to be down (at least on the lots I was watching).

15 CJ Jackson PSA 2 for under $30k
51B Mantle Rookie PSA 4 for $15k (recent comps between $18-23k)

Also...this boggled my mind:

86F Jordan Rookie PSA 10 $191k
86F Jordan Rookie SGC 10 $74k

$117k more for the same card/same grade with the PSA holder? Ouch.

The 86 Fleer Jordan has been dropping pretty steadily in recent months. Leland's is the last place I would sell one. The basketball collectors just don't check Lelands like the vintage baseball guys do. It probably cost the seller 20k or more for that PSA 10 having it there. I bet it does $210-220 if it were on PWCC premier. Also, the basketball market HATES SGC slabs for some reason. They get no love at all. Much wider gaps than in other sports.

That Mantle RC price doesn't strike me as an outlier at all. It was about the worst-looking PSA 4 I've ever seen. I think it oversold its eye appeal, personally. It's so far OC that they'd have to mark it as a miscut if it were any further off. And the registration is difficult to look at without going cross-eyed. I feel like I need a pair of those red/blue 3D glasses to view it properly.

The Cracker Jack Joe Jackson is a bit surprising though. The 1915s don't get enough love, but still. $30k? Feels low to me, although I'm not well tuned in on CJ prices.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The Cracker Jack Joe Jackson is a bit surprising though. The 1915s don't get enough love, but still. $30k? Feels low to me, although I'm not well tuned in on CJ prices.

I am very well tuned in to CJ pricing and as I said this example wasn't going to meet or exceed any records due its condition and isn't a reflection of the current market for Cracker Jack blue chips such as Cobb and Jackson.

Not only did it have extensive back damage, but the front color is way off due to either being soaked incorrectly or color fade from excessive exposure to light. Color should be dark bold red. Its even more noticeable on the left and right sides as its almost pink in color.

Go look at other examples and compare the color and then you decide. That is what held this back from selling for more. Actually, $30K for this example is pretty hefty in my opinion and I'm also quite surprised it made its way into a 2 holder.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by babraham

Leland's sale prices on their auction ending tonight seemed to be down (at least on the lots I was watching).

15 CJ Jackson PSA 2 for under $30k
51B Mantle Rookie PSA 4 for $15k (recent comps between $18-23k)

Also...this boggled my mind:

86F Jordan Rookie PSA 10 $191k
86F Jordan Rookie SGC 10 $74k

$117k more for the same card/same grade with the PSA holder? Ouch.

Prices on the Jackson and the Mantle reflect the quality to the cards, not the market. Most of the vintage I looked at had solid numbers. Market is still healthy enough.

The disparity in the Jordan prices is also expected.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Prices on the Jackson and the Mantle reflect the quality of the cards, not the market. Most of the vintage I looked at had solid numbers. The market is still healthy enough.

The disparity in the Jordan prices is also expected.

Extremely healthy I agree. I think next year it’s only going higher. REA will probably have record numbers in their fall auction that starts in November bank on that.