Scarcity

[JasonL]

I encountered the same issues when I attacked that line of thinking/questioning upon my entry into pre-war in 2006. Much of it is unknowable, learned through the experience of searches, estimated best by some sort of triangulation using auction catalogs, Ebay searches and Population reports.

I think the volume of surviving material of pre-war vs post-war is much much lower. The passing of years has deminished the collectable material, as well as perhaps (and this is debatable) the collecting audience in the pre-war arena. Values are very fickle, driven by demand in ways that don't always seem sensible.

Generally, there is one rule that I have learned thus far:
If I want it, it probably costs more than I have. If it doesn't, then I buy it.

I wish there was more science to this art, but I have never seen definitive numerical answers to your question regarding #s produced vs surviving, and how that then feeds demand. If you find more info in your quest, please share. otherwise, give up and just enjoy collecting what you like, I suppose. Wish I could be more help.

A good example of demand driving price:
A) Honus Wagner T206: estimated population of 50
Average price probably well over $200k+
B) 1949 Bowman PCL: I have seen estaimtes that only 2,000 total cards remain of this 36 card set. Assuming even distribution, then only 55 cards of each remain. possibly alot less than that.
Average price probably $250