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#1
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: T206Collector
I believe that this auction not only establishes that population reports are flawed as indicators of true scarcity, but also demonstrates how population reports can be used to mislead unsuspecting collectors. I would like to say that I have always had a good experience with this seller as both a buyer and seller on ebay, and I think he has just got it wrong here. |
#2
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: warshawlaw
They are not reports on the existing # of specific cards but are instead merely reports of what cards have been submitted to the grading service. We know, absolutely, that certain cards were printed in identical quantities because they were on the same friggin' sheets together, yet the pops of those cards varies widely. |
#3
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: cmoking
The pop report shows me that the card he is comparing his card to (the one he doesn't have) is impossible to find in high grade. While the one he has is relatively plentiful in high grade. What that says about a PSA 4 is that his card should trade at a LOWER price than the other card even at the same grade, because a PSA 4 of the other card would be closer to the best graded example out there...whereas a PSA 4 card of the one he has is not close to the best examples out there. |
#4
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: identify7
RoadMap for what cmoking said = $5 (once I figure it out)! |
#5
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: joe brennan
How come there are 11 boxes for grading. I thought PSA only went up to 10? Maybe there's a place for an 11 OC ? J/K. I to have dealt with this seller and had great success with him. I cannot fathom a reason to hype any t206? 99% of the buyers know exactly what they are looking for if they are looking at his auctions. What are the chances that 2 complete newbies are going to look at that discription and say, "Thats the 1 I have to have" and bid $200 over book on it? Might bid us out at $50. Out |
#6
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: JimCrandell
Of course the pop on high value cards is higher than a commmon. One finds that across every set. The resubmission rate is higher too. It does not mean it is misleading. There is a lot of information that can be gleaned from the two pop reports. |
#7
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: warshawlaw
how many times that card has crossed that company's threshhold. Whether a card crosses that company's path is the result of many factors that have nothing to do with scarcity per se: |
#8
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: cmoking
the boxes refer to: |
#9
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: tbob
Don't forget there is a lot of cracking open holders and resubmitting of expensive cards not only to the original company but to other companies as well. This will further skew results. |
#10
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: BlackSoxFan
I'm sorry, but i've seen several of his auctions the past few months with at best, mistated information, and at worst, blatant lies. He always takes things to extremes and has never responded to any of my polite inquiries as to why he put such information that in his auctions. If he is on here, let him respond, but he is anything but honest to me. |
#11
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: JimCrandell
1)It is certainly not correct that most advanced collectors dislike grading services. |
#12
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: Wesley
What's an "advanced collector"? |
#13
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: Tim Newcomb
I just couldn't resist this time-- |
#14
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: JimCrandell
I know 20-30 vintage collectors(defined in this case as 1950s and earlier) who have multi-million dollar collections, who have all there cards graded, have been doing it probably on average 25 years, are passionate about the hobby and have probably the top sets graded or ungraded for most if not virtually all of the most popular pre-war and post-war sets. |
#15
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: David Vargha
Pop. reports are very useful for indicating scarcity, even though they are not entirely accurate. I find them especially useful in pre-war when looking at total numbers ever submitted (and resubmitted) as well as grade distribution. |
#16
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: John
I have been in the hobby for thirty years. I have bought, traded, and sold thousands of vintage cards and consider myself to have a fair amount of knowledge for pre-war football and baseball. However, I have never submitted a card to be graded and only own six graded cards. Not to knock those of you that prefer graded examples, but I prefer my cards to be unslabbed. I know that you said "most advanced collectors" consider grading to be mandatory, but most of the individuals that I sell to and buy from/for prefer their cards ungraded as well. |
#17
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: joe brennan
the boxes refer to: |
#18
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: DJ
"who have all there cards graded, have been doing it probably on average 25 years", |
#19
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: Anson
When it gets to the "my daddy can beat up your's", I'll find somewhere else to post. |
#20
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: warshawlaw
Or who don't slab their cards but will acquire already-slabbed cards. Still doesn't change the fact that population reports are inaccurate measures of actual scarcity. I am especially leery of high grade slabbed commons as "rare" based on population reports. I have many common cards laying around that will pull very high grades if I slab them; I choose not to bother since they aren't going anywhere in the foreseeable future. If I decide to sell them I will certainly slab them so that people playing the registry contests can overspend for them. |
#21
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: jay behrens
Does the fact that I will never in my life own a PSA8 or SGC88 and slab very few cards mean that I am not an advanced collector even though I have almost 25 years of experience collecting pre-war cards? |
#22
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: John
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#23
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: warshawlaw
To continue my prior screed: About a year ago I sent in a dozen 1971 Topps hi #'s from the set I am building to see what SGC would do with them. A bunch of 88, 92 and 96's later I got my answer. I have a big bunch of similar cards that aren't going to be graded because I have no desire to build a graded set. My experience is not unique among the set building collectors I know. A lot of cards are out there ungraded but in very high grade. |
#24
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: Mark Holt
Hey DJ - Roop is doing houses now? Where do I sign? |
#25
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: jay behrens
Adam, some of the first cards I ever got graded were hi# 71 Topps cards from my set that came straight from vending cases. Nothing graded higher than a 92. Right there, I knew that if cards straight from vending cases can't max out on grades that there was no point in ever wasting my money on graded sets. |
#26
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: jay behrens
Here's something I've wondered about, has anyone ever bothered to compile a combined pop report from all the slabbers. THis would be more a of a true indicator than just looking at PSAs pop report. There may be only 1 or 2 of a given grade for a card at PSA, but what happens to the value of taht cards if just as many, or more exist in other slabs? |
#27
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: John
Good Point Jay. |
#28
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: BlackSoxFan
John - |
#29
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: Don
In response to: |
#30
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Why Population Reports On Vintage Cards Is Misleading
Posted By: warshawlaw
because as kids we either used them or chucked them. No doubt they survived in much lower #s than other cards from the same sheets. |
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