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#1
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: bruce Dorskind
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#2
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Frank Wakefield
I think it is 'merely', not 'nearly'... |
#3
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: barrysloate
Great Depression may be a bit severe. But should things get that bad, then of course the baseball card market will tank. |
#4
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Doug
I agree with what Barry said. I'm no whale (more like a neon tetra) so I've pretty much quit buying altogether. I don't see the super wealthy people having too much to worry about, but the regular guy has to be hurting right about now. I'm probably spending about $300 a month on gas anymore and that really starts cutting into the disposable income after a while. |
#5
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: dennis
i wish the prices would go back to the way they were in the 70's and all the investors would get out and only the collectors who don't care about profit/$$$ would remain.there would be no more scammers making a buck selling bogus reprints, then,there would no longer be a need for the grading services as collectors don't need to be told the grade of their cards or if they are real. ...but that is not going to happen. |
#6
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Frank Wakefield
Barry is right. |
#7
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: leon
Nowadays with inflation and the price of gas I had to put in my 4 cents instead of 2!! I have to agree with the group of 1. I think we will see some more softening in the mid to lower level collectibles. For what it's worth the fantastic items will continue to do well, imho. There just isn't enough supply of them and the folks spending 5 figures on 1 card aren't quite as affected....They are affected but it's not as life changing to them. America lives on credit too much and our National debt is a disaster. That coupled with the weakening dollar makes for a very poor economy. Almost daily I ask my wife, in somewhat amazement, how the people making 25k a yr with children can pay their bills? .....I have been harping on her about small stuff and yesterday I overheard her tell my 11 yr old that they didn't need to go cruising around as the cost would be $4 in gas just going to the store and back. I gave her a pat on the back for that one. I want her to be cognizant of money as I usually pay most of the bills so I can hide my card purchases and she doesn't see a lot of the family finances .... |
#8
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Fred C
Yesterday's near collapse of Bear Stearns is, we are afraid, is |
#9
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: barrysloate
While I agree that the very rich will not be as affected by a worsening economy, many people who sink hundreds of thousands of dollars a year or more into baseball cards may choose not to, even if they can. Many of the mind-boggling prices we've seen over the past few years are based partly on buyer exuberance; that it doesn't matter what you pay for quality because it can only go up. |
#10
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
Guys, don't kid yourselves. The very rich will be getting pounded financially very soon. Bear will be the first bank to go and the rest may follow. It will be very, very ugly soon. |
#11
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: David Simon
Another way to look at it is, everyone is finding out that they had a lot less money than they thought they had. The only thing missing from the last recession in '91 is the President isn't raising taxes. That would cause the crash down. I don't envy the incoming President. |
#12
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Jason Duncan
I disagree. I think now is a good time to be buying. There are alot of good deals out there in the midgrade market. I would stay away from high grade material for now. I think the economy could get alot worse, but it will not get that bad. Prices will adjust and move up soon. |
#13
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: rob
Jeff, |
#14
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
Bear Stearns will cease to exist shortly. The govt can only do so much. The Depression occurred despite governmental intervention. |
#15
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: rob
Jeff, I was more referring to your "others will follow" comment. The largest US banks, i.e. citibank, jp morgan and the like will not cease to exist. |
#16
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
JP Morgan seems to be holding its own. But Bear and its assets will soon be sold off. If money disappears, the banks disappear as well. Washington Mutual has about had it. While some banks will remain, more failures will follow. |
#17
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Marc S.
I think the economy is in significantly better shape than the media (and many of this board) portray it. And I think talks of a depression and an economy that will tank over the next 6-9 months is exceptionally overblown. |
#18
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Jason Duncan
Marc S. |
#19
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: steve
On ebay I missed a GREAT looking T206 Cobb bat on PSA 5 with no tilt, full borders and near perfect centered - it went for $2450.ish - great value on a high end for the grade card. These were up to $2800. while back. |
#20
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Andrew
Yup, put me in the contrarian camp...it's the "sky is falling", media negativity snowball that will get us there, and without such fanning of the flames, the scenarios of which you speak might not even occur. A true "Depression", really? On that note, the financial press here is much less dramatic. I was recently in Asia and the analogies and word choice use by the English accented reporter used were just hilarious, over-the-top "sell the farm", "batten down the hatches" type commentary. |
#21
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Larry G
Negative Attitudes only give way to more negativity but here are some facts: |
#22
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: barrysloate
The media may in fact exaggerate some of the problems we are having, because negativity does make for a good story. |
#23
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Steve
If you have the cash, now and the immediate future would be a very good time to be buying. |
#24
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Todd Schultz
I'm with Barry. Although I cannot stand the American Media and might even consider them a bane in our society, the signs are either there or getting there. Here in the Southwest, the problems are very, very real. Things don't move much in election years either--people hedge, wondering what type of administration will be coming on board. I can't see things turning back to the good before mid '09 at the earliest. |
#25
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Dan Bretta
I think this thread is depressing. While I would love to see baseball card prices tank I certainly don't want to see our economy tank. If the two are tied together I'll root for the economy to recover even if it means I can't afford the cards I want to collect. |
#26
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Larry G
Barry- For those two conditions blame: |
#27
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: barrysloate
Larry- agreed. |
#28
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: CoreyRS.hanus
Forgetting for moment about the ills in the real estate/credit markets, what about the astronomic increase in cards over the past several years? No market can keep rising at such stratopheric rates without having a correction. And typically the greater and longer the increase before the correction, the greater the correction. So then it seems to me that two forces might be at work on depressing card prices, the worsening economy AND the fact that a correction in the card market is long overdo. In the next month or two several major auctions will be taking place. It will be interesting to see how they do. |
#29
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Cobby33
If there truly is a "depression" looming (which I think is being dramatic) and one's livelihood is not baseball cards, then who really gives a crap? Don't we have bigger things to worry about? |
#30
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Steve
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#31
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Mike
I'm I missing something. Why is 1% of the mortages having this much effect on the total picture ? Please explain. There has always been foreclosures and now their is more , but how much more ? About 99% of us still are paying off the mortage or already own a house. Again please explain. |
#32
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: barrysloate
Corey- funny, the real estate market was not properly regulated, and the baseball card market is almost entirely unregulated ( I will say that getting a card slabbed by SGC is the closest we have come as industry to keeping things honest). |
#33
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: paulstratton
A Great Depression? Doubt it. I think we have evolved just a little bit since the late 1920's. It's a world wide marketplace for all commodities now, it wasn't that way even 10 years ago. We thought competition was a good thing? Guess not. |
#34
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: LetsGoBucs
We are the problem. Voters that continue to elect weak politicians on the basis of "what they will do for you" are to blame for the mess we have. And it is a mess. |
#35
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Cobby33
"We spend more per pupil than any country in the world." WRONG as to California, which ranks lower than a lot of underdeveloped nations. As for teacher's unions (and no, I'm not in one)- that's not the problem. The problem is putting inept teachers in administrative positions and over-funding those. Teachers remain the most important profession which is grossly underpaid. |
#36
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: barrysloate
I predict that in the next couple of years we will be surpassed economically and militarily by Belgium. |
#37
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: steve
I am not that old, but old enough to see a few presidential elections. |
#38
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: David Atkatz
"Our biggest problem in America is the MEDIA. It is our own worst enemy." |
#39
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Al C.risafulli
I just read this thread and traded all my cards for a truckload of cigarettes and chocolate. When this all goes down, I want something that will retain its value. |
#40
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: barrysloate
Al- chocolate melts. That's a high risk investment. |
#41
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Mark Holt
Damn, so you're the one that outbid me on the cigarettes Al. |
#42
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Cobby33
Al- |
#43
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: paulstratton
You just had to go and steal my Belgium pick. I'll go with Luxembourg instead. |
#44
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Al C.risafulli
Barry: |
#45
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Richard Masson
I am not sure a public chat room for baseball cards is the proper venue for this discussion, but I will say that in my experience, things are never as bad (or as good) as they appear. Financial institutions are highly leveraged (banks, investment banks, etc.) and there is not one of them that can withstand a "run on the bank" like what faced Bear, Stearns this past week. Remember there are two kinds if insolvency: balance sheet insolvency where liabilities exceed assets (the entire banking system in the early 90s, for example) and cash flow insolvency (what do you mean my money isn't in the safe? I want my money now!). As best I can tell, Bear is facing the latter. It's assets will be liquidated or its business units sold, liabilites will be settled, and that will be that. Perhaps the same fate awaits Lehman or others. We'll see. |
#46
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: David Atkatz
"Medicare also needs to be cut by 30% and the harsh truth is that some people will go without healthcare." |
#47
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Al C.risafulli
Thanks, Richard. That seems like a pretty sound and level-headed analysis. Particularly that last part of the first paragraph. |
#48
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Bruce Babcock
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#49
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: Steve
I can't believe there has been no mention of China. They're in a buying mood -our debt. |
#50
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The Depression of 2008
Posted By: David Atkatz
What this country needs is a good five-cent Nicholl. |
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