The Junk Wax Era- when did it start?

[HasselhoffsCheeseburger]

I stumbled across some interesting information a while back while researching a particular Donruss product.

Topps sales went from ~500 million cards/year in the late-1970s to ~1 billion by the mid-1980s (that's sales, not production. Obviously production was much higher).

Donruss saw production increases each year in the early-1980s, and 100% increases in BOTH 1986 and 1987 (twice as much in 1986 than 1985, and twice as much in 1987 than in 1986).

In 1987, Topps had a 50% market share, Donruss ~25%, and Fleer a little less than 25%.

While these aren't firm production numbers, I don't think it's unreasonable to use them to extrapolate a ballpark set of parameters. Obviously, you're looking at major production increases for Topps even when comparing late-70s to early-80s, with gargantuan increases starting in 1986. But more importantly, this is important information for the people that seem to think that they'll see future price increases with 1980s that we're seeing with 1970s currently. There's just too much disparity in the amount of product produced to draw any kind of correlations.

But, and this is just my opinion, if you're purchasing cards solely for an investment, you're almost always going to be disappointed. The people I know that have done well did so because they collected what they enjoyed and then chose to get out when a trend caught fire. Since I've started collecting unopened the most excited I've got over an acquisition and the items that bring me the most joy having them in my collection aren't the 1970s items, they've been the hard-to-find stuff from the "junk wax era." Because that's when collecting was the most fun for me as a kid.

[37Jetson]

The Junk Wax Era in Football started around 1983 with the Topps "X" boxes that were largely bought up by Steve Myland. Low and behold Football got hot a few years later and still goes for good coin today. These "X" boxes sold for around $4 if I recall.

For sure the overall Junk Wax era started in 1987, maybe 1986 if you count Topps.

[callou2131]

I would argue that we are back in it again. Every rookie has thousands of signature cards, they may even be designated as such for 3 years. Look at it this way. In 2000, spx had the big card Rick Ankiel autographed /1500 That was pretty much it. Now take it to 2013. You would have his Base auto of God knows how many. His refractor, his blue refractor, his quadrublesuperamazingfractor etc. That would be in topps chrome. Next week out comes Bowman chrome with all the same stuff. The week after that another topps product comes out with again all the same stuff. It used to be a big deal to pull an auto. ANY auto. You could get $10 for the cheapest and they only went up from there. Now you can pull an auto and not even break even on the PACK nevermind box. Oversaturation will again kill what little market is left for the newer stuff. After all the junk and watching fleer and donruss dissapear the other companies didnt learn a thing.

[Beatles Guy]

Originally Posted by callou2131

I would argue that we are back in it again. Every rookie has thousands of signature cards, they may even be designated as such for 3 years. Look at it this way. In 2000, spx had the big card Rick Ankiel autographed /1500 That was pretty much it. Now take it to 2013. You would have his Base auto of God knows how many. His refractor, his blue refractor, his quadrublesuperamazingfractor etc. That would be in topps chrome. Next week out comes Bowman chrome with all the same stuff. The week after that another topps product comes out with again all the same stuff. It used to be a big deal to pull an auto. ANY auto. You could get $10 for the cheapest and they only went up from there. Now you can pull an auto and not even break even on the PACK nevermind box. Oversaturation will again kill what little market is left for the newer stuff. After all the junk and watching fleer and donruss dissapear the other companies didnt learn a thing.

I agree with this observation. Autographed cards have "jumped the shark" so to speak, just like GU stuff has. It's to the point where many autos have become worthless. Topps definitely needs some competition.

[insidethewrapper]

Overproduction really started for Topps I think , and agree in 1987. Fleer in 1988 and Donruss in 1988.

Great boxes are still 1989 UD, 1990 Leaf, 1992 Bowman, 1984 Donruss. Low prints were 1994 Fleer Flair Series 2 ( Arod - R) and 1992 Fleer Update Factory Set. Most of the above are harder to get in case lots.

1986 when the card market crashed from the overproduction

[toppcat]

I was active in the current market back then and it went into overdrive for Topps in 1986 but realistically, high levels of production really commenced about 1973-74.

[tulsaboy]

Dave, during your research into Topps, have you ever found any reliable production numbers for any period? I would be interested in exactly how out of control production got. You said it kicked off in 1973-74. Do you think the shift to one series during those two years has anything to do with that? Freed of the problem of series-based distribution, do you think it was easier for Topps to produce more cards and to distribute them in a wider variety of methods than before? Lots easier to be creative with distribution when you aren't worried about how well a late series will sell when in competition with football or basketball... Just curious about your thoughts.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by HasselhoffsCheeseburger

I stumbled across some interesting information a while back while researching a particular Donruss product.

Topps sales went from ~500 million cards/year in the late-1970s to ~1 billion by the mid-1980s (that's sales, not production. Obviously production was much higher).

Donruss saw production increases each year in the early-1980s, and 100% increases in BOTH 1986 and 1987 (twice as much in 1986 than 1985, and twice as much in 1987 than in 1986).

In 1987, Topps had a 50% market share, Donruss ~25%, and Fleer a little less than 25%.

While these aren't firm production numbers, I don't think it's unreasonable to use them to extrapolate a ballpark set of parameters. Obviously, you're looking at major production increases for Topps even when comparing late-70s to early-80s, with gargantuan increases starting in 1986. But more importantly, this is important information for the people that seem to think that they'll see future price increases with 1980s that we're seeing with 1970s currently. There's just too much disparity in the amount of product produced to draw any kind of correlations.

But, and this is just my opinion, if you're purchasing cards solely for an investment, you're almost always going to be disappointed. The people I know that have done well did so because they collected what they enjoyed and then chose to get out when a trend caught fire. Since I've started collecting unopened the most excited I've got over an acquisition and the items that bring me the most joy having them in my collection aren't the 1970s items, they've been the hard-to-find stuff from the "junk wax era." Because that's when collecting was the most fun for me as a kid.

Wow, and that's before getting to the 88-93 stuff.

When one of the local shops closed in around 95 or 96 he had everything on sale for a month or so. Including at least a pallet of 90 Donruss at $5 a box. But he said if I wanted a few anything over $2 a box was fine. He had two or three more pallets in the basement and a standing offer from a liquidator for $2 a box for anything he had left. So figure 3 4ft x4 ft by 4 ft high blocks of 90 Donruss boxes.

Steve B

[esquiresports]

It's been a lot of fun reading this because I lived through it. 1986 or 1987 is when the "junk wax" era began in my opinion. I would guess that Topps' production roughly doubled every year from 1977 to 1985 and then accelerated even more quickly to the peak in what I believe is around 1991/1992.

I recall seeing a ton of 1986 Topps wax and racks well into 1987, but that may have been driven, in part, but a weak rookie class.

1987 was the first year that Topps sold factory sets on a truly national level. They did produce some factory sets in 1974 and 1984-1986, but 1987 was a huge factory set production year. From 1987-1993, factory set production was huge. I still have mine.

I believe 1988 Donruss holds, by a good margin, the record for highest production. I mean it was everywhere you looked. 1989 Donruss was saved in part by a strong rookie class. 1990 Donruss production remained in the stratosphere.

1989 Upper Deck started out as the "scarce" product, but I wonder how long they printed 1989 Upper Deck product. Its production appears to be up there with just about any other product than 1988 Donruss. 1990-1992 production was extremely high.

Card companies really began to bank on the card craze in the late 1980s. You had new entrants like Sportflics, Wild Card, Star Pics and others who cashed in with less than stellar product.

The big companies battled back by releasing new sets. You saw special sets - opening day, baseball's best, etc. Then Topps reintroduced Bowman in 1989. Donruss came out with an upper end Leaf product in 1990. Topps added OPC Premiere, which was THE set to have along with Leaf. Then Studio Club, Gallery, and on and on. It was pretty horrible.

[JWBlue]

It would have to be either 85, 86, or 87.

Topps: I recall in 1986 noticing packs in more places than 1985. Then in 1987 I noticed the cards even were more prominent. Even as a teenager I sensed these cards might not be worth much.

Fleer: 1986 I noticed higher production.

Donruss : 1987 they really stepped up production. Those blister backs were everywhere.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Topps, I would say '86 - '87
Fleer, I would say '88 - '89
Donruss, I would say '87 - '88

[bbcard1]

I might argue 1981. The supply of wax was wonky mainly because of the strike, but after 1981 there was never any problem finding wax. The obscene production started really in 1987, IMO.

[Econteachert205]

A lot of good opinions and information here, I'll add my own. I think that the year is 1981, with the exception of 1984 Donruss which has always been explained to me was in short supply. The fact that stuff from 81-86 kept some relative value while 87-94 basically became worthless doesn't really paint the whole picture. My 1981 price guides list complete 81 topps, donruss and fleer sets higher than prices now. That's 33 years with an inability for saturation to lead to higher prices. The answer to why could be low demand, but it can't be the only answer. Plus you go from 1 company to 3. I like the stuff from 1981-87, and I had to get by my own bias to see that the only difference between it and the stuff from 88-94 is that people weren't quite totally soured on it and have positive memories surrounding it. I loved pulling Clemens and Gooden and Boggs and Puckett and Ripken and Gwynn rookies. The fact that I enjoyed it means they've at least been able to tread water, in my opinion.