What Is the Median Scarcity for Old Judge Poses?

[z28jd]

I would guess the average is right around 15-20, figuring 2460 poses and a somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000 Old Judge cards exist. The average pose would then have about 15-20 examples.

To answer the Myers question, he is a common player to find, but certain poses are tougher to find even among common players, so the only way to really find out how many approximately exist is keeping track over a long time. I would say at least 100 Myers cards exist and his tagging player pose doesn't show up often, so the breakdown of his three cards could be 40-40-20(tagging). Just a rough estimate based on what I've seen.

[sreader3]

Thanks for the input. 15-20 is lower than I would have guessed -- but my guess would have been totally uninformed.

[slidekellyslide]

So every Old Judge card is rarer than the T206 Honus Wagner.

[z28jd]

Well, many of the Old Judge poses are extremely rare, so they drag down the average. If you saw the thread where we talked about Taylor Shafer, we mentioned that one of his cards(any pose) probably hasn't been for sale publicly for at least 12 years, but he has five poses in the set. I can't imagine more than five exist of any of his poses. There are a few players who fit that same mold as well, so they lower the average

[Joe_G.]

OJ population by pose varies significantly and is best discussed by first understanding to which years/subsets the pose belongs. George Myers, for example, has three poses as follows:

337-1 Bat at ready, looking at camera = Issued 1887 (type A & B), 1888 (Fb), & 1889 (Fc)
337-2 Stooping, hands waist high = Issued 1887 (type A & B) & 1888 (Fb)
337-3 Tagging player on ground = Issued 1888 (Fb)

John's estimate is certainly in the ball park but suspect George Myers is an easier subject with closer to 100 copies pose 1, 70 copies pose 2, and 15 copies pose 3. This is merely a guess and reserve the right to answer differently next time.

Pose population is far from normal distribution. While 1887 cards, for example, are generally easy there are many outliers (Madden "bat against rock" for example )

[oldjudge]

I think John approached this the right way. There are about 2535 poses known and if you assume 50,000 cards that would average out to slightly less than 20 copies/pose, on average. This is based on 50,000 cards being known, which may be high. The three biggest private Old Judge collections have under 8000 cards in aggregate. I would bet the next twenty have under 10,000 cards. After that you are down to a lot of small collections. Very few dealers have much of a stock. If the correct number was 40,000 cards then you are down to a average pose having 16 copies. If I had to hang my hat on a number, I would go with 16, which is in John's original range. Again, there are lots of unique or 2-3 copy poses. All the rarities fall into this category (except for Behel and Brady--they probably have 5-10 copies each, but they are there since they only have one pose).

[insidethewrapper]

Of the 2500+ variations what would be the "range" from least amount of copies for any one pose to the most ? ( 1-100 ?)

[slidekellyslide]

My dad found 3 OJ's "in the wild" (new to the hobby)...early 1980s at an estate auction. I have found only 4 OJ's "in the wild" in probably 30 years of attending thousands of estate sales, garage sales, antique shows and flea markets. 50,000 is probably about right.

[ctownboy]

I have lived in Central Indiana for about 25 years now. About 20 years ago, I found nine Old Judges at an auction.

They were:

Anson, Chicago's
Ewing, fielding grounder
Rusie, pitching, hands at neck
Faatz, Cleveland
Klusman, Denver
Powell, Sioux City
Strauss, Omaha
Van Haltren, Chicago, NL
Williamson, Chicago, NL

About four years ago, I found one OJ common at an auction (I thought it sold for too much but I didn't have the OJ book at that time, so, who knows, it could have been a rare common).

Two years ago, there was a find of 17 OJ's in or around Indianapolis.

Of course, there was a LARGE find in 2006 by Dave of Dave's Vintage Cards of 215 OJ's originating somewhere in Indianapolis.

That is all I have found or heard of,

David

[garymc]

I have one "Old Judge" in my type collection. I picked this player because he was on the original 1903 Highlander team. I'm always looking in the bigger auctions for another pose to compliant and compare with my card. love the history of the cards, has a wonderful energy just holding one !!!!

https://www.flickr.com/photos/151843924@N04/albums

[oldjudge]

The low number is certainly one. The high number probably represents a common pose that was issued in 1887 and reissued in 1888-1890. I would guess that number is south of 100, but probably not a lot south, perhaps 80-90.

[oldjudge]

I still think 50,000 seems high. I wonder how many people on the board have any Old Judges.

[Joe_G.]

Some may remember a similar discussion last year (OJ survival rate of up to 50k cards).

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...d.php?t=196113

Originally Posted by oldjudge

The low number is certainly one. The high number probably represents a common pose that was issued in 1887 and reissued in 1888-1890. I would guess that number is south of 100, but probably not a lot south, perhaps 80-90.

I agree that the most common OJ is likely around 100 and I place the first pose of George Myers in that category with both type A & B zero number cards, an Fb, and Fc. FWIW, my estimates were arrived at as follows:

no more than 40 cards from 1887 type A zero number
no more than 20 cards from 1887 type B zero number
no more than 15 cards from 1888 (Fb)
no more than 30 cards from 1889 (Fc)

This gives a total of 105 which I rounded down to 100 but could easily be less (70-100 would be good guesstimate) for pose 1. The same math was used on pose 2 & 3 and recommend that if you wish to collect all three poses of George Myers that you don't pass on the next pose 3 that surfaces (Fb only).

I should note that there are many examples of Fb cards with less than 15 examples. Fb Anson in street clothes may hit 15 while Anson in Uniform is 4 (or 5). Fb Deacon White poses 2 & 8 are maybe around 10 apiece while the other 7 are ~2-5.

There are many very tough poses. The largest population of new poses surfaced in 1888 and 1888 is likewise the year with the highest count for single year poses. These are generally very tough cards. These coupled with a handful of Script cards and 1889 California League cards together with the many recently added poses that are cropping variations (with ball / without ball) and you are able to pull the common poses that are known at ~100 copies down to the ~20 copy average.