Problems with VCP and the Hobby

[Beastmode]

Originally Posted by packs

VCP is just a data mine. All of the information on VCP is information available to you as well if you search for it. You wouldn't know anything beyond a sale price unless you spoke to the buyer or the seller. I don't think it's fair to put that initiative on a service like VCP.

++ Don't kill the messenger (VCP). I love VCP and consider it a great resource. I also use POP reports, ebay completed sales, and if available, an AH"s archieves.

There at lots of outliers in VCP you need to ignore, (from the "buying-group" especially). It's not all subjective either. You need to see the trends and get a feel for demand, scarcity, and your own gut.

Always stay within your budget and you will never have to worry about shilling. This is a hobby, learn to enjoy coming in second.

[drcy]

I doubt that many to most auction houses would be willing to give out which lots were paid for and which not, which were sold to second place bidders, etc. 1) It's internal business and 2) it's extra work for no pay. I doubt that after a long day's work, an auctioneer, database manager or accountant says "Hey, let's crunch more numbers for free."

[tschock]

Originally Posted by drcy

I doubt that many to most auction houses would be willing to give out which lots were paid for and which not, which were sold to second place bidders, etc. 1) It's internal business and 2) it's extra work for no pay. I doubt that after a long day's work, an auctioneer, database manager or accountant says "Hey, let's crunch more numbers for free."

And it's not in their best interests. Lower realized prices this time lead to lower potential next time (in the psyche of the bidders).

[drcy]

A fair compromise is if VCP helps an auction house with packaging then the auction house will crunch those numbers for them.

[Baseball Bob]

Two thoughts/comments:
1). It's kind of early to call a market top when it has been just two months since the National; and no one who sees a 5000% price run-up and shouts "bubble!" is really a genius, are they?
2) VCP only ought to be used as a guide. Given the huge number of direct untraceable transactions that take place out there, they can only see a small fraction of the market and only that which wants to divulge itself to them. They are not "market police".
Best to cut them a break...

Eric

[Snapolit1]

As far as I can tell the "buying group" is a coordinated cabal of know nothing billionaire bankers from New York City who have gotten done manipulating all sorts of markets (real estate, art, pork bellies, orange juice futures) and have now moved on to modern Topps rookie issues from the 1960s. Just a guess though.

[ksabet]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

As far as I can tell the "buying group" is a coordinated cabal of know nothing billionaire bankers from New York City who have gotten done manipulating all sorts of markets (real estate, art, pork bellies, orange juice futures) and have now moved on to modern Topps rookie issues from the 1960s. Just a guess though.

LOL +1

We should have Beeks look into it

[ezez420]

My point of this entire topic was to attempt to fix an ongoing issue. And yes I appreciate Bobby chiming as it provides some info. No auction house has chimed in yet to see how they handle it. I am curious on the % of non payers or data that could be inaccurate. Here is the point.

A) if you are allowing your data to be taken for public use (IE VCP) and people rely on this data it has got to be accurate or pretty close to accurate to a point
B) Auction houses providing knowingly false information to the public will cause mistrust and people dropping out of hobby. Yes this is what it is but you see it within the show circuit past couple of months.
C) Whether it be a fake labeled card being sold through an auction house or a card that someone won and did not pay for. For example were these $130-$150K Rose PSA 9 Rookies really paid for (just picked a card that is so out of whack, not picking on anyone). If the information provided to VCP is KNOWINGLY incorrect then they are misleading the public. The auction house can say and play dumb however they want but it actually is their obligation. I am sure the Lawyers out there could chime in. Nobody else aside from a shiller, non payer and the auction house know whether a card is paid for or not.
D) VCP is a PAY site and therefore information should be accurate otherwise they should not be using the auction houses data to produce in.

The point is some houses know they are providing false information on some cards and care more about lining pockets then providing a true accurate source.

[ezez420]

That is a terrible reason. This is a data feed. I would guess it would effect the online eBay auction houses the most but a program could be developed to feed this data at the end of the auction rather than instantaneously.

It is in their best interest to do it as ultimately people will be deterred from collecting. Which in turn leads to less consignments. Do you not think that many have not been deterred already from the precipitous manipulated drop in prices from before the National?

Originally Posted by drcy

I doubt that many to most auction houses would be willing to give out which lots were paid for and which not, which were sold to second place bidders, etc. 1) It's internal business and 2) it's extra work for no pay. I doubt that after a long day's work, an auctioneer, database manager or accountant says "Hey, let's crunch more numbers for free."

[packs]

I don't think a deterrence would have to do with reported sales prices. I think any drop in auction house participation is a reflection of mistrust.

[36GoudeyMan]

Not sure I know what/who that is, and what they do....

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by ezez420

Do you not think that many have not been deterred already from the precipitous manipulated drop in prices from before the National?

If one looks at an anomaly or outlier "sale" as either just that, or something more nefarious, such as a fake sale, then one logically shouldn't view subsequent prices lower that that data point as a "precipitous drop."

In other words, the real error in judgment is in looking at one or more outliers-- be they real sales or fake-- and assuming that was the new market.

Re: VCP, it's just a site that aggregates some data. As others have said, interpretation of that incomplete data is on the individual's shoulders.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by drcy

I doubt that many to most auction houses would be willing to give out which lots were paid for and which not, which were sold to second place bidders, etc. 1) It's internal business and 2) it's extra work for no pay. I doubt that after a long day's work, an auctioneer, database manager or accountant says "Hey, let's crunch more numbers for free."

And I hate to say it, but it's in the AH's interest for people to think the sale was real.

[botn]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And I hate to say it, but it's in the AH's interest for people to think the sale was real.

Exactly. Very good for business and brings in loads of consignments. Smoke and mirrors.

[Snapolit1]

A rising tide lifts all PSA 9s and Gem Mint 10s.

[tschock]

All PSA 9s are equal, but some are more equal than others.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by tschock

All PSA 9s are equal, but some are more equal than others.

To quote Bachman, Turner, Overdrive.....Down, Down, we all go down!

[steve B]

Originally Posted by botn

Exactly. Very good for business and brings in loads of consignments. Smoke and mirrors.

I looked for it a bit, but I saw an auction catalog in another hobby that was primarily stuff that hadn't been paid for over the last several auctions. The intro was pretty harsh, not undeserved just a bit surprising.

I'll have another look for it and see if I can't find the catalog online.

Steve B

[Exhibitman]

Sounds like the OP got crispy crittered on some buys.

I dropped pricing data from my latest book because of the shilling and the existence of real time price data. VCP is quite useful for mapping not just prices but also frequency of sales. That is often more important than price for vintage and regional cards.

Anyone who thinks postwar mainstream cards are not going to fluctuate is delusional. Too many examples exist for prices to just go up and up endlessly. I've been collecting since the 1970s. I've seen over and over how prices run up and then copies of the cards pour into the market. I know guys who had high end cards and who've dumped them and downgraded because the profit taking opportunity is too good to pass up.

The AHs have no duty to ferret out bad sales; I am not sure they could even do so without going in and specially altering their software, which ain't gonna happen.

Calling market tops is inherently guesswork: never wrong, only early. I see strong prices on a wide variety of issues that are not worth enough to be manipulated by a cabal of billionaires. That's just the byproduct of a long expansion of the general economy and the resulting cash collectors have right now.

And they're freakin baseball cards. If you have to obsess over market manipulation and cabals of billionaires you need to get a different hobby.

[autograf]

That would make for a good music group name...........Cabal of Billionaires........someone call Al............

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Sounds like the OP got crispy crittered on some buys.

I wouldn't doubt it as a lot of collectors did, no doubt.

VCP or any guide is just that, a guide. Our cards in the pre-ww II arena are not like the post war ones inasmuch as they are not as abundant and are usually lower in grade, overall. Therefore there is more relativity in their eye appeal and their value. Of course high end and high dollar post war cards have some of those characteristics too. In other words buy the card not the holder. And don't fall for any crazy ebay or other prices. Look for averages and do your homework. And if you are an average-Joe collector like most of us stay away from the highest grade Rose rookies and their ilk.....

[ezez420]

Adam, I am the poster and not sure what part of the field we are referencing. To clarify for you I had no issues or losses nor am I a shiller. But by all means if you want to openly discuss the baths you have taken with boxing collectibles feel free to post. All ears.

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Sounds like the OP got crispy crittered on some buys.

I dropped pricing data from my latest book because of the shilling and the existence of real time price data. VCP is quite useful for mapping not just prices but also frequency of sales. That is often more important than price for vintage and regional cards.

Anyone who thinks postwar mainstream cards are not going to fluctuate is delusional. Too many examples exist for prices to just go up and up endlessly. I've been collecting since the 1970s. I've seen over and over how prices run up and then copies of the cards pour into the market. I know guys who had high end cards and who've dumped them and downgraded because the profit taking opportunity is too good to pass up.

The AHs have no duty to ferret out bad sales; I am not sure they could even do so without going in and specially altering their software, which ain't gonna happen.

Calling market tops is inherently guesswork: never wrong, only early. I see strong prices on a wide variety of issues that are not worth enough to be manipulated by a cabal of billionaires. That's just the byproduct of a long expansion of the general economy and the resulting cash collectors have right now.

And they're freakin baseball cards. If you have to obsess over market manipulation and cabals of billionaires you need to get a different hobby.