How do you see the market 10yrs from now

[irv]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

I agree and have seen the same trends recently all so (since Nov/Dec LY)...auctions are ending much higher than they used to, even on lower to mid grade material. What is interesting, in some cases now due to this recent trend in lot prices, you can get a better deal buying singles from ebay sellers than buying lots....this is a scary trend for card sellers specializing in selling singles.

However, like many trends, the pendulum will likely swing back in the other direction and lot prices per card will no longer exceed pricing on singles.

I have noticed the same, and I can assume we are talking about the same cards?

Recent sales with Greg Morris were quite surprising, and they were raw, too.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by irv

I have noticed the same, and I can assume we are talking about the same cards?

Recent sales with Greg Morris were quite surprising, and they were raw, too.

Some of GM's lots have pulled in some amazing prices per card....again, in many cases single cards in similar condition can be purchased less expensively.

I used to win a high percent of GM's lots. That seemed to stop at about the same time he started sending out his daily 4 PM (est) emails to promote his offerings....and/or the same time the market for raw lots skyrocketed.

[irv]

Originally Posted by irv

This Mays, although a 9, looks like it will do very well.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/401285276004...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

Never seen a nicer, Runnels, that I can remember, but this one also looks like it will end very well.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/351996654845...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

I am curious where this Mantle is going to end up, and if the current PWCC Dimaggio situation will affect prices any? (I am guessing not, by the looks of things)
http://www.ebay.com/itm/142300324567...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

Some of GM's lots have pulled in some amazing prices per card....again, in many cases single cards in similar condition can be purchased less expensively.

I used to win a high percent of GM's lots. That seemed to stop at about the same time he started sending out his daily 4 PM (est) emails to promote his offerings....and/or the same time the market for raw lots skyrocketed.

All 3 above, especially the Mays, has increased significantly.

SFMS, I have never purchased from GM, only been a lurker, but I did bid on a few of his cards before they really took off. I was hoping to play for a bit, but high bids were quickly squashed and then some.

I was surprised (due them being raw) his 52 Topps cards were doing so well. Some were in pretty good shape, imo.

[kailes2872]

I am hoping that there is a big swoon 10 years from now. The kids will be almost out of college, the house will be paid for, and I will have some additional disposable income.

My hope is that many of my friends on the board will be looking to liquidate and sell those cards for pennies on the dollar - since the baby boomers are disappearing and forgetting about Mickey Mantle and there are no 30 year old millenials who know who Ty Cobb is!


Of course, the reality will be that every card that I will be looking for then will be experiencing all-time highs and every card that I own will be experiencing a market dip. I don't have any plans of ever selling and made the boys promise to hold onto them when I am gone, so the buy price is more important to me than the sell price!

[glynparson]

everyone you listed will be worth more than today.

[Johnny630]

If I was into this hobby only for long term growth on my investments this is how I would see things over the next few years. With interest rates rising It is my opinion that the ultra rich big money players will be putting their money back into treasuries and away from high end 8/9 post war cards. I'm not chasing any cards right now unlesss it happens to be a Mantle.

[Exhibitman]

To the extent that the wealthy are into cards it isn't to beat interest rates, it is as a fun alternate asset play. Something to enjoy like art. Rich people don't sell the family Picasso for pocket money. What is most likely in a downturn is the same thing as has happened in every downturn. Marquee cards stagnate or fall moderately and meat and potatoes basics fall pretty hard because the guys who buy vg Topps cards for their sets are the ones who take it on the chin in a downturn. One thing I do expect in the next downturn is a significant drop in the mainstream cards that have been run up so much in the last year or two. The stuff with a regular heavy supply on eBay and auctions. The PSA 7-8 and even some 9s for guys who aren't Aaron Ruth Mantle etc.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by kailes2872

Of course, the reality will be that every card that I will be looking for then will be experiencing all-time highs and every card that I own will be experiencing a market dip.

That's how I buy and sell securities...

[Touch'EmAll]

As a tax guy, I see a lot of different investment transactions - Government bonds, basic interest accounts at the bank, speculative stocks, blue chip stocks, high dividend yielding mutual funds, single family rentals, small businesses, etc.

Cards are investments, not mainline, but they are investments. Tough to imagine that anybody thinks, gee, I am buying cards, but have no hopes of them ever increasing in value.

Be smart and don't build your entire portfolio around them. However, if done right, they can be investments that DO yield a positive rate of return. I have accumulated pre-war cards of major HOF'ers mostly in PSA 5 and 6 grades: T206's of Cobb, Matty, Walter Johnson and Cy Young. 1920's Exhibits of Ruth and Gehrig. A Satchell Paige here, a Jimmie Foxx there, A very nice PSA 8 run of Hank Aaron's, and similar type stuff.

The long term result (10 year hold plus) has seen some nice price appreciation. I am glad I have them built into my portfolio as investments. Just my 2 cents.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Cards are investments, not mainline, but they are investments. Tough to imagine that anybody thinks, gee, I am buying cards, but have no hopes of them ever increasing in value.

The long term result (10 year hold plus) has seen some nice price appreciation. I am glad I have them built into my portfolio as investments. Just my 2 cents.

I have been doing this (for the most part) 30+ years.

Appreciation is only guaranteed in my eyes, not in value.

I went through many phases of my collection crashing after booms like we have seen in the past few years, ask the 90s guys. If I don't lean on a hope that demand outpaces supply and just enjoy myself I will not be disappointed.

If your window is only the last 10 years, then yes you have been in a phase of appreciation. How long the PSA love lasts with outside investors depends on a reputation with a constantly eroding base.

Just enjoy the collection and if something good happens value wise, enjoy that too.