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#1
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Reasons why prices of some vintage cards are going kinda CRAZY????
Can we have a logical discussion as to why some cards...t206 Green Cobbs, T206 WAJO/cy young portraits, TY Cobb postcards, most babe ruth cards...are going kinda insane very rapidly.
I do not believe that a few zillionaires are entering the hobby as an alternative way to "invest" their riches...I just don't believe it! Is it possible some are buying up as many copies of a given card as possible so as to try to manipulate the market...ABSOLUTELY!!!! IT's already been done with some cards. The rise in some of these cards does make sense...like cobb postcards...they are super scarce in many cases...and are considered cobb rookies Ruth cards...many of these instances make sense...again these cards are pretty tough...as compared to cards like T206 and 50's topps rookies...and demand is sky high. The T206 rises...just don't make sense to me. It sure looks, smells...and feels like a mania...similar to what was happening to marijuana stocks late last year. Let's discuss please. I tried to make a poll...didn't work!!!! Last edited by ullmandds; 01-18-2019 at 06:59 AM. |
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People have probably just realized that the T206 Johnson portrait and Cy Young portraits are great looking cards. You can look high and low through any other issues of theirs you want, but it's going to be hard (in my opinion) to find a better example to show off a legendary player.
Even their secondary cards from less collected sets that bare similar images sell for strong prices. I'm thinking of the Ramly Johnson and the E-90 Young. Same is true for other players. The Speaker T206 is kind of a turd image-wise and even though the E-90 Speaker is far more scarce, I firmly believe that all things being equal the E-90 would always outsell the T206 because it just looks nicer. Beauty matters in all things. I think the Lajoie with bat card is the next to take off. Find a better looking card of Lajoie. Last edited by packs; 01-18-2019 at 07:10 AM. |
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Well obviously multi-factorial, including some aspect of fraud and manipulation. But I do think that people like Brett from PWCC and Goldin and others have done a great job pimping baseball cards as a great investment the past decade. I've seen people on Power Lunch on CNBC taking baseball cards and memorabilia. And no doubt for some people and some cards it has been an amazing run. When I'm investigating purchasing a high end Ruth or Gehrig card and figure I might spend $12,000 for it, I do some research and find the same card sold at REA in Spring 2017 for $950 and scream "holy sh*t." Some people, and not those hoarding Jose Canseco rookie cards, have made a lot of money on vintage sports cards. And if you are a man between the ages of 40-80 with disposable income, it's not outrageous in my view to think of rare sports cards to be (small) part of a diversified portfolio of investments. And like stocks I think people try to hunt out the next big thing to run.
I know "diversified portfolio of investments" in the same paragraph as vintage cards will chap some people's behind but so be it. Last edited by Snapolit1; 01-18-2019 at 07:15 AM. |
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#5
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So...here’s a great sidebar question. What do these cards look like 5 or 10 years from now?? Do they hold steady, because people have them stashed and aren’t moving them? Do they “bottom out” again to 2017 or before prices due to lack of interest? Or do they steadily increase due to less supply and continued demand??
These types of conversations are always great! Have a beautiful day! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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Last edited by Snapolit1; 01-18-2019 at 07:38 AM. |
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Oh I understand no one knows, I was more thinking of the fun of speculation. In my opinion, some of these cards come back in a year or 2 and realize similar increase in pricings, and some of these cards never see the light of day again. I have friends who have PSA 10’s of 50’s and 60’s stars that will never see the market, or at least for the next 20+ years. There is a lot more of that going on than people think. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
#8
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#9
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As stated, it's a combination of factors. Demand is the number one reason, and there is no question that baseball cards and memorabilia have been a very popular collectable. Also, no question there is price manipulation and hoarding going on. Where there is money to be made, there will always be unsavory people involved.
Also third party grading has been a huge factor in escalating prices. We would never have all the so-called investors in the hobby without the slabs. In fact, the single greatest factor in price escalation, IMO, is the number printed on the label. This has pretty much always been an overheated market, where the must-have-it-now mentality often rules. For me, it has taken much of the fun out. It's become too commodified and less of a relaxing hobby. Cards are too expensive. That's not to say they can't go higher, but I've discovered I can live happily without them. |
#10
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Maybe, as Steve said above, cards really are starting to be a legitimate part of a financial portfolio? That could explain some of the rise in prices of the best looking cards.
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Leon Luckey |
#11
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They have been investments for a long time. Only recently are people talking about it. How many people here have collections over 1,2,300k a million dollars? I am willing to bet there are several hundreds of people. |
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Investors have been putting together baseball card portfolios for as long as I can remember, so there is nothing new there.
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#13
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Over the last 10 years the DOW has had its greatest historical increase. The national unemployment rate has moved to a very low level, lowest in many years. The supply of investment quality cards isn't going up. These 3 factors could have significant impact on the price of "good" cards.
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I am bummed out by the portrait Johnson t206 prices, but oh well. I was 2nd high bidder on a stretch about a year and a half ago for some psa 3s. Any idea that is dead and buried for the time being.
I think the individual card prices are becoming more standardized with current card collecting. There are a few cards worth disproportionately more than others. If we knock out the short prints, we are now watching the rise of the 'chase' cards.
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WTB: Autographed 1984 USFL Reggie White, 1955 Len Ford, 1986 Wilber Marshall, 1957 Johnny Unitas |
#15
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My point is that aesthetics could be playing a larger role in collecting today whereas rarity or types could have been the motivating force behind past sales. I don't care about rarity anymore. I want NICE cards. I'm sure I'm not alone. Last edited by packs; 01-18-2019 at 09:25 AM. |
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Cards being discussed in this thread are investments as well as parts of collections. My guess is the people who think of themselves as collectors only have some way to know what they paid for a card but also have a pretty good idea of value. Very similar to how an investor thinks if you ask me. The beauty of all of this is we can be both collectors and investors doing what we enjoy doing. I know that's how I look at it! |
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Actually I don't think, relative to other cards, the E90-1 Young portrait sells for a lot. I think it's still an affordable (for now) and great looking card. The best looking cards are definitely being gobbled up and their prices reflect it.
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Leon Luckey |
#18
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I don't see how one could argue against that idea. Any card depicting the Horner portrait of Wagner sells at a considerable premium, even the Colgan Chip, because it features an iconic image. Why can't there be room for aesthetics to drive prices? |
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 01-18-2019 at 09:41 AM. |
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But maybe they hadn't been collected for the aesthetic. That's my point. There could have been other motivating factors for why the prices were down. If you pay for rarity, then you weren't paying up for a T206 Johnson portrait in the past.
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Apparently you didn't comprehend what I wrote? I said this-
The best looking cards are definitely being gobbled up and their prices reflect it.
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Leon Luckey |
#22
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I wasn't responding to you. I was agreeing with you. I was asking a rhetorical question about why it doesn't make sense.
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Since you quoted me I thought you were responding to me. We are in agreement.
And of course I got the E90-1 Young portrait I wanted and paid a high record price for it at the time. But looking back it was most likely a very good investment as "1 of 1" highest graded cards go.
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Leon Luckey |
#24
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For people on this site that know me, I'm a dealer of T206 cards for many years, so I can only answer for these cards. There has been a wave of new buyers in the hobby on these cards. You see the high amount of different bidders when a item closes on e-bay, no matter who is auctioning the card off. There has been a wave of high prices of these cards since early last year when the green portrait Cobb starting taking off. It has a caused a domino effect on other Cobb poses & has continued to the Johnson, Young, Mathewson, Speaker, & Lajoie portraits. It could effect other Hall of Fame portraits and other poses on the portrait cards that are currently taking off. Even T206 Southern League Old Mill backs have increased in price that are PSA graded. Eventually some of these Hall of Fame cards will level off and something else in this set will be in demand.
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#25
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#26
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https://smallbiztrends.com/2014/06/p...of-colors.html |
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Hey Pete! Great question. It's funny that you raise this question as a buddy and I were just having this conversation a couple of days ago.
Without piggybacking off of other people's ideas, all of which are valid and possible, and in all likelihood probable; let me offer another option. Is it possible that the current mentality of the "shiny card collector" has seeped it's way into our universe? They don't collect sets. They don't buys packs of cards trying to fill binders. They don't trade commons, just because they need that one to finish off a team set. What do they do? They chase the lottery ticket. They are chasing some super refractor 1/1, written in gold ink. They buy a 5 card pack, for an outrageous amount of money, and don't care about 4/5 of the cards. They only want to know about "the hit". Is it possible that in addition to every valid point that has been brought up thus far, that there is also an element of "lottery chasing" going on? How often do we see thread titled "What's the next Green Cobb?" or "What's the next Bond Bread?". I don't know, but I do believe, to a certain extent, that everyone wants the lottery ticket and they see this as a better/safer avenue than 6 good numbers.
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Want List: E98 - Wagner 1923 Exhibit - Stengel |
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The economy is doing really well, at least where I live. I decided to sell an old card I had in my drive way last week....I posted it online and sold it in about 30 minutes. Housing prices are very strong. Everybody who wants one has a job, and in most cases a good paying job.
When the economy was doing really crappy in about 2008-2010 everybody was selling off their collections it seemed. There were some that wanted to sell but wouldn't at the low prices everything was going for. I don't know about any specific card, but it will circle back around. When it does a lot of people will see the value of their cards dropping and decide to cash out again.
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R Dixon |
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I think this is also an essential driver of prices is the hoarding of poses probably brought on by people collecting runs in the first place. One collector on this board has posted 50 or more T206 One collector on this board has posted 50 or more T206 cobbs of various poses for exampls. |
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+1. Also I think the Young portrait is maybe the ugliest portrait card in the entire set.
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"Attractive" is an opinion. I like the bat off Cobb better than the others. I prefer the Lajoie throwing over the with bat and portrait. Honestly, no one of Cy's T206s are particularly attractive. The portrait is ok, the hand showing is colorful, but a bit awkward, and then there's the milkman (as someone coined it) glove pose. I think the hobby is reacting much like investors do to "hot" sticks. The late adopters are paying high for cards that are solid for the grade. You can still find portraits for reasonable prices if centering and razor corners aren't your thing.
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An$on Lyt!e |
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FWIW. Years back I had most major T206 HOFers and all their poses. They were all PSA 5's. I sold 3 and have kept all the others. I sold the Young bare hand and the Young glove because I didn't like the artwork on either. And I sold the Matty dark cap because it was a mega print. The artwork on the Johnson hands chest looks nice (to me) and think it may be currently undervalued. The Matty white cap pose is same as dark cap, but much tougher to find, and may also be undervalued, so that's a keeper. If I felt like having doubles, those 2 would be the ones I would look for.
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Postcards getting love, they've been the stepchild for all of collecting. I can see why they are going up in price, as theyve been passed by for a while. But t3s havent gone through the roof? I think that's the most artistic set, with full frames and t206 like artwork and period backgrounds. Only 100 cards, and no silly big 4, ro chase to be complete.
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"Trolling Ebay right now" © Always looking for signed 1952 topps as well as variations and errors |
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#36
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if you believe that baseball cards are an artform (and I do) take a look where art has gone and you'll see that there may still be plenty of room for baseball cards to move. I collect, I don't really invest, but I would not be scared off by the prices were I investing.
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I believe there are a great deal more investors not collectors getting into the vintage card market because the stock market, well, sucks. imho JW Moore
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Was collecting Next day newspaper article and earliest rookie ephemera/card of all 20th century no hit hurlers. |
#38
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Check out sold prices on Jayson Tatum cards. I'm a big NBA fan and I have barely heard of him. It's insane how much people spend on new cards. Might as well pick up a couple of Cobbs and a Babe Ruth for the same money. They are not making any more vintage cards (at least I hope they are not). Hopefully new money is finding the vintage market.
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Want to buy or trade for T213-1 (Bob Rhoades) Other Louisiana issues T216 T215 T214 T213 Etc |
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An$on Lyt!e |
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Not a big pre-war guy but hope to someday own a beater Red Cobb. Are there any other sets with the same pose? |
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M116, it's close anyhow.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#42
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These cards were low and stagnant for years. I last collected T206 in 2005 and until 2015 I still pretty much knew the prices. They've gone up a ways but I think most of that really just made up for lack of consistent growth. I believe that some of the cards are still undervalued.
Beyond T206, i don't see how you go wrong with Ruth, Cobb, Young, WaJo, Matty, Gehrig and a few others from the great prewar sets. There are still good ones to be had at relatively low prices. As for why a T206 portrait, well, look at them. They are beautiful little lithos. Even in lower grades
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 01-18-2019 at 06:26 PM. |
#43
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I prefer the Red myself, although I regret selling my Green and am looking for one. To me, in fact, the Red Cobb could be THE classic baseball card, at least of ones generally available.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
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Torn between Cobb Red and Bat off as my favorites. Green is a distant third to me.
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Check out https://www.thecollectorconnection.com Always looking for consignments 717.327.8915 We sell your less expensive pre-war cards individually instead of in bulk lots to make YOU the most money possible! and Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thecollectorconnectionauctions |
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I've always preferred the Red Cobb over the other three as well. I never understood why the green was so much more expensive and why it's taking off like it is.
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I'm always looking for t206's with purple numbers stamped on the back like the one in my avatar. The Great T206 Back Stamp Project: Click Here My Online Trading Site: Click Here Member of OBC (Old Baseball Cards), the longest running on-line collecting club www.oldbaseball.com My Humble Blog: Click Here |
#46
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A very close friend of mine, who works in finance in NYC, inherited a house from his dad. He sold the house and put all of that money in the stock market...did well there for a few years, then just recently took $108K of that money and bought the Cobb/Cobb T206 in REA. That's saying something. He, a well-versed financial person, sees so much potential in investing in cards, that he made such a move.
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Definitely T206 only investors. I don't see 1930s cards skyrocketing. Quite opposite.
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#49
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Education and ease at finding whatever you are looking for, plays a big factor. Plus, does size matter?
Key factors for T206. The history of them being collected as they have always been popular. Its a large set filled with HOFers. Many poses, variations and different backs. Plus, the set contains the ultimate social status card with the Wagner. Surprising that the M116 Sporting Life cards made from the same timeframe don't bring similar prices as their counterparts the T206. Both series are small cards and colorful. Plus easy to store. 19th Century cards we tend to see the larger items being more valuable. Example Old Judges N172 (small) compared to N173s Cabinets (large) or Kalamazoo Bats N690 (medium) compared to N690-1 Cabinets (large). We don't always see this for early 20th Century cards which has always purplexed me. Many times the larger items like T3 Cabinets (large) or M110 Cabinets (large) which were given out as promo/redemption card don't get the proper boost in value based on their scarcity. We see Zeenuts have a ten times multiplier if it has a coupon still attached. But the reality is its 100 times more rare. Maybe this is why TPGs will grade Zeenuts with a torn coupon completely off and still give it a numerical grade. If they are willing to over look a torn card, then why don't they give Postcards the same love with writing on them or a stamp. They were made to be used that way just like Zeenuts. So, no surprise Postcards have been the red headed under valued step child for years. TPGs just hammered them unjustly IMO. Postcards which are medium in size and also have all the players from the era should be very desirable. Throw one of the best baseball players of all-time in Ty Cobb and you have instant gold! Lets face it, There will never be another .366 life time BA or even close When I talk card sizes I feel there are 5 sizes. Small (Tobacco/Candy) Standard (Goudey/Topps) Medium (Postcards) Large (Cabinets) Xtra Large (Imperial Cabinets) I Know I strayed off the OP, but wanted to look at some things from 30,000 feet up!
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Love Ty Cobb rare items and baseball currency from the 19th Century. |
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Want to buy or trade for T213-1 (Bob Rhoades) Other Louisiana issues T216 T215 T214 T213 Etc |
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