Will this stock market madness affect cards?

[mintacular]

Ok, so point is there are going to be a lot more 10s of modern cards than 10s of 80s Darryl Stawberry or whomever--so how do higher supply 10s of modern cards hold the same value to 80s 10's that are much harder to hit? Also, the bottom 95% of total supply doesn't matter on cards like these ultimately it's only the top 5% and there will be drastically more 10s on modern than 80s to vintage

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Ok, so point is there are going to be a lot more 10s of modern cards than 10s of 80s Darryl Stawberry or whomever--

So why would you conclude the $15 Strawberry PSA 10 (in much lower supply) is equivalent to the PSA 10 modern star which would be in much greater supply?

I am not.

In 1985 we didn't get cards graded. Kids just saw the value in Beckett and said this is what it is worth. Dealers in many cases too.

If there are 1 million printed and the card books for $15 it has a $15 million dollar market cap.

If today there are 30,000 printed and it books for $500 it has a $15 million dollar market cap. The lower supply simply allows for the cards to trade for more and of course we have inflation.

Long term no one knows what they are worth. That said a 1993 SP Jeter that has over 15,000 copies graded by PSA alone was worth $6,500 in a PSA 10 in 2009 when I got really active buying cards. There were countless people who said at $15,000 it was the most overvalued card in the hobby. At $24,000 it was insane. No way the $30,000 sale was real. You can't be serious it sold for $37,000. And on and on. Now close to $200,000. This stuff is hard to predict but one thing is true once a horse leaves the barn it is hard to get it back in.

I was made fun of for saying a Hogan PSA 9 was a great buy for $75. Today it is at least $5,000. I didn't know that then and believed it would go up a lot but was just lucky not to sell and keep buying various copies on the way up.

[brianp-beme]

I know 2008 through 2011 or so was a time to pick up vintage cards cheap. Good possibility 2020 through ? will be the same way.

Brian

[mintacular]

You make some valid points but I'm not sure where the 30,000 vs. 1 million assumption is coming from?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by mintacular

You make some valid points but I'm not sure where the 30,000 vs. 1 million assumption is coming from?

They under no circumstances print anywhere close to as many cards today. I made a guess of 30,000. It might be 50,000 but it certainly isn't a million. I am close to 41 and from the time I was in kindergarten into early middle school you could find packs of cards everywhere. Grocery stores, convenience stores, gift shops, card shops, card shows, and at baseball games. Good luck with this today. Just viewing the distribution channels it is easy to see the overall supply is drastically lower. I read at one point Topps had reduced production by 80% and that was years ago. Anyone trying to suggest the card production is similar to 1991 Topps is delusional. I don't assume you think that as that would be nuts.

[mintacular]

Walmart and Target? They carry tons of this product don't they? Pretty sure much more than 50K nationwide?

[sbfinley]

Since we are wandering down this hole, I believe the rough estimate for 2020 Topps series 1 is 250,000 not including factory sets.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

Since we are wandering down this hole, I believe the rough estimate for 2020 Topps series 1 is 250,000 not including factory sets.

Good info.

I did a little digging and the estimate for 1991 Topps is 3 to 5 million.

If baseball card production has gone up in recent years that is great and there are quite a few hobbyists that believe the card market will die out in the coming years due to lack of interest and perhaps this is a sign that future generations will remain interested.

The card manufactures figured out long ago that they couldn't produce as many and the focus obviously became on chase cards to move packs.

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

They under no circumstances print anywhere close to as many cards today. I made a guess of 30,000. It might be 50,000 but it certainly isn't a million. I am close to 41 and from the time I was in kindergarten into early middle school you could find packs of cards everywhere. Grocery stores, convenience stores, gift shops, card shops, card shows, and at baseball games. Good luck with this today. Just viewing the distribution channels it is easy to see the overall supply is drastically lower. I read at one point Topps had reduced production by 80% and that was years ago. Anyone trying to suggest the card production is similar to 1991 Topps is delusional. I don't assume you think that as that would be nuts.

David:

I know Mike Sommer did an analysis after Topps did the million card rip early this month and he thought that was about 2 percent of the total print run of 2020 Series 1 Topps.

Assuming 25 percent of the cards were not base cards (which I think is correct in a Jumbo pack) that means approximately 2272 (we'll round down to 2250 for our purposes) of each base card was pulled.

If that really was 2 percent of the total run; that means 2250 X 50 is the amount of each base card produced (There are no SP's in basic Topps -- the SP's are considered parallels)

That means 112,500 or so of each base card was produced for 2020 S1. That number might actually be a bit low when you consider factory sets and more later so I'm going to add 10 percent and round

125K of each 2020 Series 1 base card was issued. Yes, no other set comes close to this print run but that's the best answer I can get.

And that's why just about base card will end up in your local card show dime box

Rich

[Rich Klein]

And as for the stock market affecting card prices -- I think the person who said employment is more important that stock market -- I think that person is correct

Rich