Card prices skyrocketing

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by packs

No I’m not suggesting every auction is shill bidding. I’m suggesting prices have been rising over time in a general sense due to it. When a high price is set but the card doesn’t actually sell or is artificially bid up it can still set a benchmark for the next sale. It’s been a topic on the board a lot and I think could be a contributor.

When I try to determine the current market for a card, I look at completed sale prices. I use VCP, but all of the other primary sources also look at completed sales transactions. I am not sure why you think a listing price impacts the market. I see tons of cards sitting on Ebay for crazy prices. they are not taken into account in sales data.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

When I try to determine the current market for a card, I look at completed sale prices. I use VCP, but all of the other primary sources also look at completed sales transactions. I am not sure why you think a listing price impacts the market. I see tons of cards sitting on Ebay for crazy prices. they are not taken into account in sales data.

I’m not talking about listing price. I’m talking about the sale price. When you shill an auction you inflate the sale price. That sale price is taken to be a reflection of the cards value. When the next person auctions the same card they do so with the previous sale price in mind and price points rise. But it doesn’t mean that the card that set the tone even sold to an actual bidder, yet it has set the tone for future sales.

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by packs

I’m not talking about listing price. I’m talking about the sale price. When you shill an auction you inflate the sale price. That sale price is taken to be a reflection of the cards value. When the next person auctions the same card they do so with the previous sale price in mind and price points rise. But it doesn’t mean that the card that set the tone even sold to an actual bidder, yet it has set the tone for future sales.

agreed. I had misunderstood your original post...
on this topic, it is very easy to move the market when there so few sales. Some of the most popular high grade cards sell maybe a few times a month.
For example, the 85-86 Star Jordan #117 (2nd year) BGS 9.5 had 6 VCP sales in November/December from various sellers. The prices ranged from $2500-$4500. In January, the 2 most recent sales are for $7500 - both from the same seller (a high-volume EBay seller)

Chatter online suggests this as the new market level.... Seems absurd, will see if additional copies are sold by different sellers at those levels.

[Exhibitman]

Here is Mr. Shiller’s checklist.

--Sharp increases in the price of an asset
--Great public excitement about said increases
--An accompanying media frenzy
--Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t
--Growing interest in the asset class among the general public
--“New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases
--A decline in lending standards

This fits modern collecting very well but I question the last five as to vintage cards. I see a lot of people who were collectors getting back into it and a lot of long-time collectors getting into it heavily on a FOMO basis, but not members of the general public going nuts. Little media that isn't focused on modern or that damned 1952 T Mantle. Don't know about new era theories; the song remains the same as far as I can tell. The greats are still greats. And if I ask someone to borrow money to buy old baseball cards they still look at me like I'm nuts.

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

--Growing interest in the asset class among the general public

I am not sure about this one. There may be a lot of new collectors, but would not call them the “general public” - its old collectors returning and/or sports fans in some form. It’s not like my grandma is showing interest in o-pee-Chee gretzkys

Very different from the stock market where you see all sorts of random people getting involved who have no business buying stock.

[troutbum97]

I think in discussing a future crash or bubble, the discussion must be differentiated between (1) Modern and (2) Vintage.

Last time I checked, they're not printing any new T206s or 1933 Goudeys next year.

And the chances that Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner or Babe Ruth suffer season-ending ACLs next year are exactly 0%.

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

I think in discussing a future crash or bubble, the discussion must be differentiated between (1) Modern and (2) Vintage.

Last time I checked, they're not printing any new T206s or 1933 Goudeys next year.

And the chances that Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner or Babe Ruth suffer season-ending ACLs next year are exactly 0%.

They're not printing new 2017 National Treasure RPA's out of 5, 25, or 99 either.
Mahomes collectors, of which there are many many more than Ruth collectors, have a limited number of rookie cards to go after.
Are there many issues etc from the various companies giving various rookie options for that year? Sure, but hardly a drop in comparison to the demand and thus the trade back and forth between those who have, and those who want. The mass released/non-numbered are worth a few dollars and everyone gets one for fun if they like, the limited stuff has the same significance as small back run T206's or other hard to find vintage.

People who mock modern on here have zero clue.
It's like Cobb is some superhero athlete of yore worth silly collecting money, but Jeter or Trout are just shmoes whose rookie cards are mere cardboard.

Guess what everyone.
Both are made of the same material, and todays offerings are no less worthy than those of the distant past.
YOUR interest may be less, but that hardly equates to the modern product being so endlessly shit-trucked.

The above is not all directed at you troutbum.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Here is Mr. Shiller’s checklist.

--Sharp increases in the price of an asset
--Great public excitement about said increases
--An accompanying media frenzy
--Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t
--Growing interest in the asset class among the general public
--“New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases
--A decline in lending standards

This fits modern collecting very well but I question the last five as to vintage cards. I see a lot of people who were collectors getting back into it and a lot of long-time collectors getting into it heavily on a FOMO basis, but not members of the general public going nuts. Little media that isn't focused on modern or that damned 1952 T Mantle. Don't know about new era theories; the song remains the same as far as I can tell. The greats are still greats. And if I ask someone to borrow money to buy old baseball cards they still look at me like I'm nuts.

On that last point, you wouldn't have to ask the bank to borrow money to buy cards. You would walk in, ask for a HELOC, and come out with 200K @ 1.75%. It is that easy for most Americans to scratch up basically free money.

[BobbyVCP]

I think most of these crazy prices are being fueled by BIN's....a few years ago all the eBay stores were full of WAY overpriced cards looking for a sucker to bite. Now they are all starting to sell, and the stores can not raise their prices fast enough. It has become a feeding frenzy....