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#101
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No I’m not suggesting every auction is shill bidding. I’m suggesting prices have been rising over time in a general sense due to it. When a high price is set but the card doesn’t actually sell or is artificially bid up it can still set a benchmark for the next sale. It’s been a topic on the board a lot and I think could be a contributor.
Last edited by packs; 01-29-2021 at 11:28 PM. |
#102
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I disagree. Prices fell hard in 2007-2009 and rebounded gradually for several years. It has picked up momentum the last few years and now we are in a full boom. It isn't shilling across this huge swath of issues and cards, it is rebounding prices combined with boredom and restricted competing entertainment spending options. You know what else is way up? Sales of model paints and craft supplies, and pet adoptions. People are bored and have money available.
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#103
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Quote:
__________________
Deals Done: GrayGhost, Count76, mybuddyinc, banksfan14, boysblue, Sverteramo, rocuan, rootsearcher60, GoldenAge50s, pt7464, trdcrdkid, T206.org, bnorth, frankrizzo29, David Atkatz, Johnny630, cardsamillion, SPMIDD, esehombre, bbsports, babraham, RhodeyRhode, Nate Adams, OhioCardCollector, ejstel, Golfcollector, Luke, 53toppscollector, benge610, Lunker21, VintageCardCo, jmanners51, T206CollectorVince, wrm, hockeyhockey Collecting: T206 Monster #236 |
#104
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I agree with this. But what I don’t understand then is why are people screaming for more stimulus and bailouts? Obviously It’s because not everyone has money- many are hurting. I guess my point is that we are in some really fuc&ed up times: some people have no food and others are dropping $20k on mass produced fleer cards of MJ sitting in a psa 8 slab, which was worth maybe $2500 less than a year ago.
My prediction is that many people get slaughtered - flat out crushed. Let’s hope people are not spending money they don’t have, but I fear many are. I will stay in my sandbox with Cobb, wagner, Ruth and my 524 t206 friends and watch from afar how this all shakes out |
#105
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Last edited by packs; 01-30-2021 at 10:35 AM. |
#106
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Cards are just a small part of a gigantic asset bubble. There seems to be unlimited availability to capital. Bitcoin, Real Estate, classic cars, boats, equities, wine/spirits. Startups with questionable futures raising 100's of millions of dollars. Sure there are new collectors, and this surge will be good for the hobby long term, but this is more about money needing a place to land.
This is the net result of the Fed pumping trillions into the economy. Depending on what you feel about monetary policy, MMT, this can either go on forever or it will come crashing down. Things that I think need to be considered; these corrections seem to be getting worse with each event. 2008 was worse the 2000, 2020 was worse (or would have been if not for massive stimulus) then 2008. This recovery is completely debt financed. Unemployment is 2.5x what it was pre pandemic, and would be 15% + without massive stimulus. I get FOMO and I think the best stuff will always do well, but when this thing pops it is going to be legendary. I just can't believe that the US can run 2T plus annual deficits forever. When the music stops all this new money will evaporate faster then it arrived. Hard to predict top and bottom on these events but they always end the same way. |
#107
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So are we in a bubble- I refer you to Shiller’s bubble checklist and you decide... and if you think we are in one and questioning, when will this pop, another question to ponder is will this pop, because that is equally as important of a wealth preservation question as much as whether we are in a bubble. |
#108
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I’ve also seen this first hand. More than once I’ve had a card listed, gotten several watchers, then raised the price on a hunch and had it sell almost immediately. I don’t totally understand the psychology behind it but it is definitely a thing.
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Items for sale or trade here UPDATED 3-16-18 |
#109
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on this topic, it is very easy to move the market when there so few sales. Some of the most popular high grade cards sell maybe a few times a month. For example, the 85-86 Star Jordan #117 (2nd year) BGS 9.5 had 6 VCP sales in November/December from various sellers. The prices ranged from $2500-$4500. In January, the 2 most recent sales are for $7500 - both from the same seller (a high-volume EBay seller) Chatter online suggests this as the new market level.... Seems absurd, will see if additional copies are sold by different sellers at those levels.
__________________
Deals Done: GrayGhost, Count76, mybuddyinc, banksfan14, boysblue, Sverteramo, rocuan, rootsearcher60, GoldenAge50s, pt7464, trdcrdkid, T206.org, bnorth, frankrizzo29, David Atkatz, Johnny630, cardsamillion, SPMIDD, esehombre, bbsports, babraham, RhodeyRhode, Nate Adams, OhioCardCollector, ejstel, Golfcollector, Luke, 53toppscollector, benge610, Lunker21, VintageCardCo, jmanners51, T206CollectorVince, wrm, hockeyhockey Collecting: T206 Monster #236 |
#110
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Here is Mr. Shiller’s checklist.
--Sharp increases in the price of an asset --Great public excitement about said increases --An accompanying media frenzy --Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t --Growing interest in the asset class among the general public --“New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases --A decline in lending standards This fits modern collecting very well but I question the last five as to vintage cards. I see a lot of people who were collectors getting back into it and a lot of long-time collectors getting into it heavily on a FOMO basis, but not members of the general public going nuts. Little media that isn't focused on modern or that damned 1952 T Mantle. Don't know about new era theories; the song remains the same as far as I can tell. The greats are still greats. And if I ask someone to borrow money to buy old baseball cards they still look at me like I'm nuts.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#111
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Very different from the stock market where you see all sorts of random people getting involved who have no business buying stock.
__________________
Deals Done: GrayGhost, Count76, mybuddyinc, banksfan14, boysblue, Sverteramo, rocuan, rootsearcher60, GoldenAge50s, pt7464, trdcrdkid, T206.org, bnorth, frankrizzo29, David Atkatz, Johnny630, cardsamillion, SPMIDD, esehombre, bbsports, babraham, RhodeyRhode, Nate Adams, OhioCardCollector, ejstel, Golfcollector, Luke, 53toppscollector, benge610, Lunker21, VintageCardCo, jmanners51, T206CollectorVince, wrm, hockeyhockey Collecting: T206 Monster #236 |
#112
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I think in discussing a future crash or bubble, the discussion must be differentiated between (1) Modern and (2) Vintage.
Last time I checked, they're not printing any new T206s or 1933 Goudeys next year. And the chances that Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner or Babe Ruth suffer season-ending ACLs next year are exactly 0%. Last edited by troutbum97; 01-30-2021 at 07:42 PM. |
#113
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Mahomes collectors, of which there are many many more than Ruth collectors, have a limited number of rookie cards to go after. Are there many issues etc from the various companies giving various rookie options for that year? Sure, but hardly a drop in comparison to the demand and thus the trade back and forth between those who have, and those who want. The mass released/non-numbered are worth a few dollars and everyone gets one for fun if they like, the limited stuff has the same significance as small back run T206's or other hard to find vintage. People who mock modern on here have zero clue. It's like Cobb is some superhero athlete of yore worth silly collecting money, but Jeter or Trout are just shmoes whose rookie cards are mere cardboard. Guess what everyone. Both are made of the same material, and todays offerings are no less worthy than those of the distant past. YOUR interest may be less, but that hardly equates to the modern product being so endlessly shit-trucked. The above is not all directed at you troutbum. Last edited by 68Hawk; 01-30-2021 at 07:55 PM. |
#114
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I was cruising eBay tonight and was going to post something but saw this thread. ‘89 UD Griffey PSA 10s are edging towards $4,000. That is insane quick growth. Ok, now I’ve calmed down and I’m going back to the OP to read what you guys think about this
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#115
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Look at the 2 PSA 10 Jordan RCs with Goldin. I don't think any card is increasing faster than the Jordan RC.
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#116
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it's a pretty rare card!
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#117
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Yea I just noticed the same. I bought a couple a few years back for $200. When they hit $500 it seemed over valued given the population. Pretty much any 80s rookie has seen a similar jump that I have noticed. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I won't be buying much at these prices
__________________
Successful transactions with peter spaeth, don's cards, vwtdi, wolf441, 111gecko, Clydewally, Jim, SPMIDD, MattyC, jmb, botn, E107collector, begsu1013, and a few others. |
#118
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Both Jordan fleer psa 10 rookies at $720k each currently at goldin auctions!
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#119
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i almost bought one for 15k a few years ago...I just couldn't do it!!!
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#120
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Just going to accept that it's an alternate universe this evening and go from there. |
#121
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One sold on eBay yesterday for 350k.
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#122
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Obviously there is big money in this hobby. But I don't think everyone buying this stuff has a bunch of money sitting around. I'd imagine some are borrowing money or taking out a second mortgage to buy big cards with the hope of making profit.
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#123
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And with Sterling Auction's closing last night...we have confirmation that CARD PRICES CONTINUE TO SKYROCKET!!!
Last edited by ullmandds; 01-31-2021 at 07:37 AM. |
#124
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52 mantle @ goldin continue to soar
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#125
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#126
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I think most of these crazy prices are being fueled by BIN's....a few years ago all the eBay stores were full of WAY overpriced cards looking for a sucker to bite. Now they are all starting to sell, and the stores can not raise their prices fast enough. It has become a feeding frenzy....
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#127
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Eh - difference in opinion, possibly. There will always be a market for iconic vintage. There have been collectors after certain cards for decades, even lifetimes. There will always be a base demand for a Goudey Ruth or Cracker Jack Shoeless Joe - or even a T206 Mordecai Brown or '41 Playball Ted Williams - even during a recession. Modern? Many of the hot rookies, insert or chase cards in modern hold the attention span of the masses barely long enough until the next patch card to chase or must-have draft pick? People are dropping $100s & $1,000s on patch cards of players who are barely all-stars or who haven't even played yet (Jasson Dominguez). Not every hot modern card is of Mike Trout, Michael Jordan & Derek Jeter. Last edited by troutbum97; 01-31-2021 at 11:28 AM. |
#128
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In 2010 or 2011, I purchased a raw T-206 green portrait Ty Cobb card for right around $450.00. It is a beater and would probably grade an A or a 1. My card is at least intact.
Almost a decade later, approximately 60% of one (even with several creases) will probably blow past the price I paid for a whole one. I'll be monitoring this auction to see its final hammer price. With this market, I'll predict $750.00, and set the over-under at this price. What do you all think? Over or under $750.00? https://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-1909-1...wAAOSw22FgFgWo |
#129
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Wow. I cannot get over this. It's literally a cut out, floating head, and seeing how this market is going, it's going to top 750.
__________________
Successful Deals With: charlietheexterminator, todeen, tonyo, Santo10fan Bocabirdman (5x), 8thEastVB, JCMTiger, Rjackson44 Republicaninmass, 73toppsmann, quinnsryche (2x), Donscards. |
#130
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Guilty
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#131
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Yeah it's kind of absurd. I was looking at a '67 Aaron last week for my set, and virtually everything on eBay that is graded has an asking price at least $100 above PSA Auction Prices or VCP. Maybe it will settle down some.
__________________
Postwar stars & HOF'ers. Prewar, Bowman & Topps Cubs team endeavors. Last edited by jchcollins; 01-31-2021 at 01:25 PM. |
#132
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I never knew there was a die cut version of the T206 set.
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#133
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You can win a graded 67 Aaron for $73.44 in the NLBM raffle on the front page.
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#134
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I've shared Mariners season tickets for years with two old friends that live, eat and breathe baseball. We spend a lot of time talking about the history of baseball for obvious reasons.
Last week I picked up a 1919 W514 Eddie Cicotte and sent them an image. They both know the story, loved the card, and guessed I paid, "somewhere around $20" for it. Then they offered to give me boxes of their old 'worthless cards' from the 1970s/80s. It's easy to see the bubble from the inside, but these two guys have no idea at all there might be one, nor do they care. Investments in our world aren't cards, bitcoin or Gamestop. I have had a great time getting back into cards, but also realize I'm part of the problem. I've spent far more on some cards than they're worth because of FOMO. Now I'm back to buying what 9-16 year old me couldn't imagine owning, and the more creases, marks, stains and crushed corners they have the better. I prefer it being somewhat centered though because I have standards. Looking forward to continuing to learn more about not just the history of baseball, but the cards the mark the different eras from you all as a collector, not an investor. That's what I love most about the return to cards Chris Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Last edited by WA_HOF_rookie; 01-31-2021 at 02:29 PM. |
#135
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It's gotten so nuts that when you do come across something really good at a low price you do a double-take. Some sellers (I think) have mark-down programs in place where it seems they mark down cards as they don't sell. I stumbled across a card I really wanted the other night, marked down 75% in an eBay store and couldn't hit the BIN quick enough.
Pete, that was some barn-burner with Sterling last night. I had a sizable consignment and figured to break even or maybe make a bit when I sent it in; I was thrilled to nearly double my money. I've spent all day digging out more stuff to sell.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 01-31-2021 at 04:04 PM. |
#136
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Hopefully in June Prices won't be quadrupled what they are now, but who knows at this point?
__________________
Successful Deals With: charlietheexterminator, todeen, tonyo, Santo10fan Bocabirdman (5x), 8thEastVB, JCMTiger, Rjackson44 Republicaninmass, 73toppsmann, quinnsryche (2x), Donscards. |
#137
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When "Dean's Cards" BINs seem reasonable, you know we're in a period of hobby hyper-inflation.
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fr3d c0wl3s - always looking for OJs and other 19th century stuff. PM or email me if you have something cool you're looking to find a new home for. |
#138
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Love it! So true!
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#139
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+1
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#140
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#141
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#142
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#143
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https://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-1909-1...wAAOSw22FgFgWo |
#144
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That is absolutely insane.
Is there any way that thing is worth 700$ ten years from now? Quote:
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[FONT="Lucida Sans Unicode"]CampyFan39 |
#145
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If It's worth 700 ten years from now, I will personally buy everyone in this thread a beer at wherever the 2031 National is being held
__________________
Successful Deals With: charlietheexterminator, todeen, tonyo, Santo10fan Bocabirdman (5x), 8thEastVB, JCMTiger, Rjackson44 Republicaninmass, 73toppsmann, quinnsryche (2x), Donscards. |
#146
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In the current Heritage Auction, I bid 130% over the last sales price (after buyer premium and taxes) and was outbid the same day.... there’s tons of time left and not a small $ card too!
Like housing, people are draining the supply and what few gems are out there are being overbid. Don’t know how I can buy another card at these conditions. Last edited by joshuanip; 02-07-2021 at 02:08 PM. |
#147
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When I came back to the hobby in 1998 I began purchasing T206’s again. Thanks to Barry Sloate (hi Barry) I was able to buy large lots from him in the $2-3K range. I decided I’d just collect portraits so I culled, traded, bought and sold until I have about 200 in the 1-5 range, PSA and SGC both common, HOF’s and semi rare backs. Hadn’t inventoried in about 5 years but last night noted recent eBay sales and the collection is up about 30% since last I checked. Is the high end towing my trailer collection. Is it a recent trend with soaring prices or has it been gradual and I haven’t noticed?
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#148
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#149
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That's the good news: more stuff will be coming out.
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#150
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Econ 101, right: the demand raises prices until owners decide to sell and the supply increases enough to achieve equilibrium.
Econ 102: the speculators then bail out, prices drop, and many people who jumped on the FOMO bandwagon are left holding their...cards. Econ 103: eventually, they capitulate and get out for whatever they can. People who've waited out the run up now buy. Econ 104: ten years later another bubble inflates. You know you are getting older when you can recall three or four of these card price cycles. The bizarro world part of this latest one is that the boom is driven by boredom and is taking place despite the economy and the bust likely will result from a return to more normal economic activity.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 02-08-2021 at 12:22 AM. |
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