CNN card story

btcarfagno · #1 02-14-2021, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

I am the first in line for a good conspiracy theory. That said I find it hard to wrap y head around the idea that the supposed manipulation you speak of is stretching as far and wide as the market shift appears to be - across all auction houses and EBay, across all sports and must be hundreds if not thousands of different cards. That would have to be one hell of a level of organization.
That said, I agree there are multiple instances of manipulation and shilling and people just trying to create suckers out of many. I just choose not to believe that is the majority of what is going on.
If you look at the relative values of baseball cards compared to other more mature collectible categories, the values of the "top of the market" stuff hasn't been in the same league (pun intended). As I have shared in many prior posts - the card market ultimately is one of simple supply and demand economics. There is no question as to a finite supply -whether 3, 300, 3000, or 3000000. So demand and price are the 2 fluctuating variables here. I do believe the majority of the demand spike is real. Will it last? A lot better shot on low population items. 300+ PSA 10 Jordan rookies? That one would be making me nervous.
I believe some of the price spikes we are seeing will stick. I believe others will not. Time will tell.
Buy with your head, not over it and buy what you like!

Also it's not just cards. Vintage movie posters are seeing some unreal prices recently as well.

Exhibitman · #2 02-14-2021, 10:12 AM

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

Johnny630 · #3 02-14-2021, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

This is a disturbing bad trend, people starting to get irrational. Believing all the hype, I hope this settles down back to reality.

Exhibitman · #4 02-14-2021, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

This is a disturbing bad trend, people starting to get irrational. Believing all the hype, I hope this settles down back to reality.

Irrational exuberance. Where have we seen that before? People buying cards that they have no business buying, frothy popular press stories on the gold rush aspects of cards, lines out the door at card stores. Sounds like the last expansion wave of a bubble.

Johnny630 · #5 02-14-2021, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Irrational exuberance. Where have we seen that before? People buying cards that they have no business buying, frothy popular press stories on the gold rush aspects of cards, lines out the door at card stores. Sounds like the last expansion wave of a bubble.

A lot of bad patterns are setting up.....Certain things are going to remain safe just like certain things are very dangerous. People can be their own worst enemy.

When everyone is buying it’s a good time take a breather and back off. If you miss it you miss it. If it fundamentally doesn’t make sense to me I can’t buy into it. Going up sure that’s natural, not at these levels and not in this grand scale. It’s not that easy everything doesn’t always continue to go up, some people are believing it does those are the ones that may get hurt doing ridiculous stuff.

Exhibitman · #6 02-14-2021, 10:50 AM

There are some cards that I think are just fundamentally worth having for the long term. I don't see them worth enough yet to justify selling right now and taking the tax hit when I think they will be worth good money when I retire and start selling to supplement my income. Some cards are from my childhood collection. I have no interest in selling those ever; pry them from my cold, dead fingers or just toss them in the casket with me. But the rest? I don't see much choice when I can do 500%-1000% in a few years of holding or less. It is a conundrum for a collector. Better than the opposite problem for sure...

Tyruscobb · #7 02-14-2021, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

Your potential warning sign reminds me of the one Joe Kennedy received, and acted on, a few weeks before 1929�s crash. A few weeks before the crash, Kennedy overheard a shoeshine boy intelligently discussing the market and giving tips. Kennedy famously stated, �[w]hen the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good.� He exited the market soon thereafter and saved his fortune. Will you do the same?

Exhibitman · #8 02-14-2021, 10:53 AM

I have been...see above post. But

Rich Klein · #9 02-14-2021, 01:38 PM

FYI:

In my other world, the one where most collectors exist, the prices on TOPPS FREAKING SERIES 1 Boxes are just out of control. Mind you this is TOPPS FREAKING SERIES 1, The flagship product for this sports card hobby.

https://www.dacardworld.com/search?S...es+1+Baseball+

Note: $29.95 is not totally terrible for a blaster box as after taxes it this is about 25 percent higher than if you bought it at a big box score.

Note the prices on the Hobby Box (Double SRP) and Jumbo (not sure what original SRP was)., And yes people are paying these numbers for these boxes.

Regards
Rich

swarmee · #10 02-14-2021, 02:18 PM

Just look what the MSRP on a box of Donruss Basketball Hobby is at... Topps must be a bargain?

Rich Klein · #11 02-14-2021, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swarmee

Just look what the MSRP on a box of Donruss Basketball Hobby is at... Topps must be a bargain?

Hoops is just as crazy. I'm thankful I try to stay with baseball.

Rich

DeanH3 · #12 02-14-2021, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

Hopefully this guy doesn't try and get a refund through eBay's generous refund policy in six months if the market drops significantly by then. That's one aspect of selling expensive cards through ebay that has scares the heck out of me.

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