Article: Future Hall-Of-Famer Cards: Sure Thing Hitters

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I just don't get the thinking. You have the likely #1 or 2 guy for NL Cy Young and lock HOFer in Scherzer, who's pitching a reasonably good game and has good stuff, and you yank him in the 4th or 5th inning for some fungible guy who's pitched undistinguished middle relief for 5 teams in 8 years or whatever. I mean what is that?

The thinking is that the third time through a lineup, a starting pitcher gives up significantly higher OPS than the first two.

Now, I'm not saying I agree with the thinking...especially if you have an ace pitcher who's dealing. An ace pitcher doing worse, even significantly worse, than his normal self, still could be better than a mediocre reliever.

Of course, back in the day, middle relievers were mediocre. Now they all throw 100 mph for 20 pitches, then fall apart.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

The thinking is that the third time through a lineup, a starting pitcher gives up significantly higher OPS than the first two.

Now, I'm not saying I agree with the thinking...especially if you have an ace pitcher who's dealing. An ace pitcher doing worse, even significantly worse, than his normal self, still could be better than a mediocre reliever.

Of course, back in the day, middle relievers were mediocre. Now they all throw 100 mph for 20 pitches, then fall apart.

Only anecdotal but it didn't work out so well for Roberts against Atlanta, did it? I'm a traditionalist and for as long as I've watched the game, 3rd time around not as effective or not, the wisdom has been leave in a starter with good command.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Only anecdotal but it didn't work out so well for Roberts against Atlanta, did it? I'm a traditionalist and for as long as I've watched the game, 3rd time around not as effective or not, the wisdom has been leave in a starter with good command.

Well, those are data points...maybe if it happens often enough, the conventional wisdom will change! It's like science!

[TheAck]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Only anecdotal but it didn't work out so well for Roberts against Atlanta, did it? I'm a traditionalist and for as long as I've watched the game, 3rd time around not as effective or not, the wisdom has been leave in a starter with good command.

I think it's less about the effectiveness in any one game as an organization trying to protect an asset over the long term. They all seem to think that an arm has an exact number of pitches in it and if you keep the count down to 80-90 a game you'll get 5 more years out of a guy. Which is insane BS. I don't consider myself a traditionalist, but I must be... I hate pitch counts, quality starts, the runner on second in extra innings, the shift, and starting by committee. I blame Joe Maddon.

-Ben

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by TheAck

I don't consider myself a traditionalist, but I must be... I hate pitch counts, quality starts, the runner on second in extra innings, the shift, and starting by committee. I blame Joe Maddon.

-Ben

Quality starts is a funny one…not that long ago, people used to rail about 6 IP / 3 ER not being “quality” enough.

The game has passed that right by…in the postseason this year 6 IP / 3 ER was an epic performance, not simply “quality”.

[RayBShotz]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Quality starts is a funny one…not that long ago, people used to rail about 6 IP / 3 ER not being “quality” enough.

The game has passed that right by…in the postseason this year 6 IP / 3 ER was an epic performance, not simply “quality”.

Heh.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Quality starts is a funny one…not that long ago, people used to rail about 6 IP / 3 ER not being “quality” enough.

The game has passed that right by…in the postseason this year 6 IP / 3 ER was an epic performance, not simply “quality”.

Pretty soon a quality start will be making it all the way into the 3rd before yielding to the endless committee of journeymen.

[D. Bergin]

Not to beat a dead horse, but Mark Fidrych had more complete games and almost as many shutouts in 1976, as Max Scherzer has had in his entire career.

On the other hand, Fidrych was DONE after a season and a half, and I still remember Billy Martin ruining a pretty talented staff for the A's between 1980-81 by making his guys finish almost every game they started (his leading closer had 6 saves in 1980) on a 2nd place team.

I guess there should be a middle ground...but analytics say otherwise, and the only way to really curb the recent trend is to cap the number of pitchers you can keep on a roster at any one time, and maybe limit the number of minor league options you can use for your true journeymen guys.

[Mike D.]

The scary thing is, relievers are changing too...the "journeyman" of the past all threw 88-92 MPH. If a squad had one guy throwing in the high 90's, it was something to see.

Now, it seems like teams are sending guys out there inning after inning throwing 95-100. I swear Tampa Bay makes those guys in a little back room of the Trop out of empty seats and stuff that falls off the catwalks.