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Here's a somewhat different, and definitely outside the box, take in response to your question. Do some research into sets/issues that PSA does not currently grade, or that they have only started grading very recently so there are only an extremely small number of PSA graded examples from that set/issue out there, so far.
No guarantee you can easily find such an eligible candidate set/issue, if at all. But if you did come across a potential prospect, maybe go after raw cards of the major stars/HOFers in that set/issue, in the nicest condition you can find/afford. Then hopefully you can have them graded by PSA in the future when they do start to grade them, or if they've already started grading them, get PSA to grade them right away while the overall PSA graded pop of such a set/issue is still extremely small. This strategy may be highly time and timing dependent as well, so obviously no guarantees of success. Certainly not a necessarily easy or predictable thing to do. But then, when has any type of such a riskier investment strategy ever really been that easy or predictable? |
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The 101 Jordan true RC would certainly qualify there.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
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It would seem that with the influx of new collectors/money into the hobby these past few years, and the attraction and desire they appear to have for low pop/high grade PSA cards and items, getting in on the ground floor of a set/issue PSA suddenly starts grading items of may not be a bad idea. Though PSA and their Registry are not my personal cup of tea, it certainly seems to be for a very large number of people in the hobby. And the money that follows shows it. I've wondered in the past what would happen to the prices and values of items in other such sets/issues were PSA to suddenly start grading them. Like the S74 silks, BF2 Ferguson Bakery pennants, and B18 felt blankets, for example. There are Cobbs, Wagners, Joe Jacksons, and other HOFers and star players in such sets/issues that I've often thought they are way undervalued due to a (for lack of a better term) perceived stigma that may follow them because of a perception then of their not being deemed worthy of grading by PSA. Last edited by BobC; 10-22-2022 at 04:17 PM. |
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Great chart, but does the typical way one talks about annual return take into account some notion of compounding, in which case the annual returns would be somewhat lower?
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
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I’m sure you get tired of me pointing it out, but does the chart also assume zero selling costs?
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
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Am I right or wrong on the first point, you're a numbers guy and I'm just a lawyer?
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
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For example, for the first item, going from ~$1,500 to ~$15,000 from start to finish would be about a 1,000% return in the aggregate. So since we’re dealing with about 16 years, it’s going to be a lot less on an annual basis with annual compounding. I would have expected less than the 137% quoted here, but certainly a return approaching 80-100% per year. Maybe when I’ve got my laptop handy, I can double check the math instead of just trying to do it in my head. Or one of the other math savants loitering around here will beat me to it.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
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And don't forget the taxes!
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There is no discount rate, interest rate, inflation rate, nor any other assumptions
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Quote:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/geometricmean.asp
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 04:20 PM. |
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The annual return on that first one, factoring in compounding, is 15.4%. Like me, you are probably thinking, WTF!!! Just seems really low when your item goes up about 1,000%. But I ran the math a few times and reverse engineered it. Investing that sum for that 15.4% rate over about 16 years gets you the final value. Just another example of how your returns on cardboard might actually be less than you expect. Admittedly, not every investment in the stock market is going to generate 15.4% per year for 16 years. And the return on cardboard is calculated before even factoring in selling costs and taxes. Although admittedly often investment returns are quoted on a pre-tax basis.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
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