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#1
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Thoughts on this 1925 Gehrig
In the Heritage auction that closed last night, the Gehrig first pictured below, failed to get a bid at the reserve of $98.4k with buyers premium.
According to VCP, the same exact card, pictured second below in an older SGC flip, sold for $132k (a record for the grade) in a PWCC Premier auction in February of 2022. Thoughts? Maybe the new flip devalued the card by $40k??!!! (Joke) |
#2
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I think we're seeing a shift, we've been seeing it IMO.
While blue-chip vintage is still strong, I think people are more hesitant with so many economic uncertainties plaguing the nation at the moment. COVID money is gone, people are fully back to work at this point, we can now travel wherever we want. Combine that with the fact that the country is trying to figure out if we are in a recession already, or heading for one. With prices of every day goods rising through the roof, something has to give.
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I saw the card and was watching it and surprised that it did not hit the reserve. The prices of the Rookies for him has been insane.
Just curious if this is just a one off and if when they try and re auction it it will go for higher. Key Card for a Monster Player. I do not think it is the economics at play because other top cards are going for some strong prices As an aside there were a couple of early Gehrig Cards of his that were not Rookie cards but were nice
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Possibly because the card and grade don't match and bidders wised up. It is a 1 all day long, not a 3.
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Looked nicer in the original case (when I owned it).
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Agree, the bottom right corner looks more jagged now and is missing some paper that was there before.
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I guess you roll the dice when you get something that fragile re-slabbed. Good thing the seller had a high reserve. But I'm not sure they'll be making their money back any time soon--its in rough shape, even if the flip says its a "3". |
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Even a side from lower right corner, this is the rare card that lost a lot of eye appeal in the new SGC slab.
Seller is fortunate SGC gave him the same grade. Last edited by Snapolit1; 01-27-2023 at 07:04 AM. |
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Leon Luckey |
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That seems on par for the typical drop in prices across the market since 2022.
Last edited by darwinbulldog; 01-27-2023 at 07:32 AM. |
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Most of the other prices from the same Heritage Auction were quite strong.
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#12
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Yes and the Joe Jackson prices were extremely strong for the 2 Blankets and the Pennant
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Thanks all Jeff Kuhr https://www.flickr.com/photos/144250058@N05/ Looking for 1920 Heading Home Ruth Cards 1917-20 Felix Mendelssohn Babe Ruth 1921 Frederick Foto Ruth Joe Jackson Cards 1916 Advertising Backs 1910 Old Mills Joe Jackson 1914 Boston Garter Joe Jackson 1915 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson 1911 Pinkerton Joe Jackson Shoeless Joe Jackson Autograph |
#13
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You know me
I'll go a little contrarian here and suggest that the problem was the reserve. For some reason, when there's a reserve, it spooks bidders, sometimes in major ways. It destroys the flow of the auction. It disrupts those animal spirits with everyone trying to out-stupid each other. That big jump throws people off. All of a sudden, they sit back, reflect, and start to wonder if it's really a good idea to bid that much.
For example, I remember last year there was a nice 1952 Bowman PSA 9 Mays up for auction. The bidding was fast and furious, and got up to $100k or so (plus the juice, natch). A couple of days before the auction closed, the reserve kicked in, and jumped the next required bid up to $200k ($240k with the juice). At that point, the entire dynamic of the auction changed. Nobody bid on it again. It had been going fast and furious, people bidding left and right. I bet if the reserve had not kicked in, it would have easily sold for more than $200k. But when that reserve kicked in, it probably confused some bidders, and spooked the rest. So it didn't sell, because no one touched it after the reserve kicked in. A couple months later, the same card comes up at the same auction house. Not just the same grade. The exact same card. I'm thinking that maybe I can score a bargain. This time, no reserve. Care to guess what happens? People go nuts. No reserve holding anyone back. In the last couple of days, it doubles, and then doubles again. With the juice, it goes for $444k. Now, you could argue that the difference of a month or two might have made a difference. Since we're talking about late 2021 and early 2022, I would posit that any difference wouldn't be gigantic. Certainly not $200k worth. For my money, having (or not having) a reserve made all the difference. If you want to see the card, here's the auction listing where it sold: https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515
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Right now it’s a buyers market. In the recent REA auction, there were numerous cards that went way below what they went for just a few months ago. So, Buy Buy Buy
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#15
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Nicolo, I think you may be on to something. I did not consider the reserve when I started the thread. I thought the market, over-graded, the flip, the auction house (although I would put this card in Heritage every day over PWCC, which is very modern heavy). But I did not consider the reserve. Great Point!
Al C of LOTG is on record time and again stating that reserves inhibit bidding and lots often do worse when there is a reserve. I would love to hear from other AHs about this. Also, in my personal experience, I have purchased two large items that had a reserve -- I paid the reserve price, nothing more, and I felt I got a great deal on both. |
#16
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Agree with sb1. With that much corner wear, that card should have never been originally graded a 3. Coupled with the extensive foxing, this is not a nice looking example IMHO. To me, it looks like a 1.5 at best.
Last edited by robertsmithnocure; 01-27-2023 at 12:10 PM. |
#17
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Gehrig
+1000! Spot on. Card is significantly over-graded. Severe corner rounding merits a 1.5 - 2 assessment at best & add in the foxing/surface soiling and it’s a borderline 1.
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#18
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The market is not as strong today as it was in early 2022. I am pretty sure this is the 2nd Gehrig rookie I have seen sell in the last 3 months which resulted in a lower price than it had attained in a recent sale. Prior to posting I went to try to find that sale and cannot recall which house had it.
I think the reserve may have turned off some bidders but really when someone wants a card badly enough I think we all know that a reserve is not going to stop them from bidding. However with that said, a reserve is very much like an eBay store listing and I think as collectors most of us prefer to bid and feel like we are more in control of the price we pay. And lastly...the first sale was a PWCC sale. I will always remain skeptical of their auction results which is why I have not and will not look at their listings.
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And on the flip side, of the inaccurate grading issues. Here is one I had graded at the National for a friend. Was expecting a far higher grade than the one received.
I did get a review and was told and I quote "you can't see it through the plastic but there is a small series of wrinkles on the back" and they pointed to the lower left back area. I smiled and took the card and walked back to my table. Pretty sure the clear plastic was not hiding any issues. Have louped it and viewed under various lighting and still can't find the flaw. That being said, if/when this card were to ever be auctioned it would bring multiples of the grade assigned with the eye appeal being far superior, rather than the eye appeal being so terrible on the one auctioned last night. Last edited by sb1; 01-27-2023 at 11:20 AM. |
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That is a STUNNING 2.5! Buy the card not the grade. I'd be a happy man with either, but alas, I'll have none. Way out of my price range.
Bill Quote:
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#21
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There is a lot of corner missing on this one, all corners extremely rounded. If this were in a Grade 2 slab, am sure the price would drop a lot, and would be more in line with reality. Tough to get a "3" price for this particular example.
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#22
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+1,001
Last edited by BobC; 01-27-2023 at 11:57 AM. |
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I fully agree the card is over-graded, does not deserve a 3 (maybe not a 2), and the card looks worse in the new slab (the bottom right corner specifically), but if you believe the PWCC sale from February, the card did not receive a bid at the $98.4k reserve amount, which means the same exact card -- a 1925 Lou Gehrig Rookie (71 on combined PSA/SGC Pop repot), has gone down 26% in less than year. I am not sure it is just the market or just the condition/slab, Maybe a combo of both and the reserve...
Or, maybe people just arent keen on Lou anymore Last edited by Rhotchkiss; 01-27-2023 at 01:57 PM. |
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just not a good exemplar for where the market is on '25 Exhibit Gehrig
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I do believe in the theory that a reserve can be a real buzz kill. The psychology of auctions is a weird one.
I've listed an item on eBay with a $19.99 opening bid and its crickets for 6 months. . . . then I list it at 99 cents and it sells for $57. Happens all the time. Last edited by Snapolit1; 01-27-2023 at 01:41 PM. |
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Quote:
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First off it’s a great card no matter what. Not shocked it went for far less money in HA. HA is a very credible AH compared to PWCC which I think is still under a Federal investigation. The bottom right corner got worse on the flip as now it has more paper loss. Completely over graded back then and now. Add the reserve factor to the mix and I think it realized a fair amount for its current state. Scott’s Gehrig is gorgeous and would easily double or triple what the higher graded Gehrig sold for that Ryan showed IMO. Maybe who submits the card makes a difference to I dunno. Lastly, there are two different shades for the 1925 Exhibits which only advanced collectors know about and rarely post about. That could be a factor as well.
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Lots of good points, mostly all valid IMHO. I also don't mind seeing that even the 6-figure, high-end cards are not immune to the current state of the hobby/economy. Why shouldn't those with deep pockets take it on the chin as often as those of us common folk who could never afford to play in that arena and have sure seen plenty of our cards dropping throughout 2021 and continuing even more so throughout 2022. As everone is quick to note though, still well ahead of the game pre-2020, assuming that you already owned the cards at that time.
Last edited by bcbgcbrcb; 01-27-2023 at 03:26 PM. |
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Personally, I think the points made above are valid. However, I believe Gehrig cards were overpriced and are now coming back to earth. In my mind Gehrig was only very slightly better than Foxx. There is no reason other than his untimely death that there should be such a large price discrepancy between their cards.
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#31
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Jay, I think the value is based on popularity only, perhaps due to the illness/death, not due to his on-field performance.
Think of the All-time Yankees by popularity and he easily makes the top 5, where in that order is subject to debate. Obviously, most would pick Ruth at #1 and then you are left with Gehrig, DiMaggio and Mantle to sort out the order. I am not even sure who I would put in the 5th spot, probably Jeter, but Berra would also be in the mix. |
#32
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Hopefully it means a few of us can get a chance to a get one of those 71 Rookie cards if market and budget permit
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Gehrig was an amazing player. Best yankeee 1B of all time. But clearly his appeal goes far beyond that. Last edited by Snapolit1; 01-28-2023 at 10:30 AM. |
#34
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To quote Joe Posnaski "But Gehrig’s OPS of 1.080 is third all-time, behind only Ruth and Williams. He hit .340/.447/.632, walked about twice as much as he struck out and led the league at different times in doubles, triples and home runs. His 185 RBIs in 1931 is an American League record, and his 167 runs scored in 1936 is second only to Ruth’s 1921 season, a number even more incredible when you realize Ruth wasn’t on that 1936 team. At one point or another, Gehrig led the league in just about everything: runs, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, RBIs, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and total bases." He walked more than Foxx, he struck out less than Foxx, He eclipses Foxx in every statistical category other than Home Runs, despite playing 150 games less than him. His Weighted Runs Created +, the statistic that is era and park adjusted, Ranks him as the third greatest offensive force in all of Baseball history behind Ruth and Williams. Not to mention the consecutive games streak, or the fact that he was a 7 Time World Champion. The entire market was inflated. Not just Lou.
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+1000
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#36
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It’s nice to see people are placing a premium on sobriety….
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I see what you did there! I feel Gerhig is still very underrated, However the exhibit frenzy does nothing for me. Traditionally the pariahs of the hobby are now the hottest things on the planet? Often overlooked for many decades, they certainly had more upside, but nothing has changed in the last 50 years to make them more desirable. Maybe more people know about them now, but they vastly undersold and historically were not as desirable as the old gum/candy cards. This is boots on the ground fact from the early 90s! Dating myself here I know The 33 world wide gum cards have much more appeal IMO..that's opinion for those keep tally marks
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In 1932, Foxx was credited with 58 HRs. Foxx actually did hit 2 more additional HRs in rain shortened games that were then erased from the record books altogether. That would have tied him with Ruth at 60.
Now factor in a special screen that was set up above the regular outfield wall. It has been estimated that Foxx had actually lost as many as 12 HRs in total. Foxx could have ended the season with as many as 70 HRs. Foxx, not Ruth, would have been the owner of one of the most famous and sacred record in all of sports. What would have been the perception of Foxx if he wasn't so unlucky. |
#39
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At this point, gotta show cards ...
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#40
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Hmmm
That Gehrig is not much better than mine...
Last edited by Chesbro41; 01-28-2023 at 02:13 PM. |
#41
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Gehrig beats Foxx in all intangibles - he played with Ruth, on America’s baseball team, won 6 championships (someone said), held the record for most consecutive games and was called the Iron Horse (nickname), was a handsome all American boy, and has a disease named after him. Foxx was an amazing player. But he was a drunk with zero post-baseball accolades; best thing he did was sort of get portrait by Tom Hanks in League of their own. The biggest stars are known for more than baseball. |
#42
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#43
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Great looking Gehrig
thanks for sharing Gehrig over Fox as many mentioned above and Fox might have been perceived as even greater if it was not for his drinking problems while Gehrig was seen as the all American Boy who suffered a tragic end.
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#44
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Gehrig
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#45
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Buy the card, not the player?
Let's get back to that card. Are you able to hit that card with a black light? I understand that it's in a holder, professionally graded. All of those corners look uniformly rounded. That uniformity is a bit of a flag for me. I'd want to illuminate it with uv light and see if it fluoresces. So that is foremost among my "thoughts about that 1925 Gehrig" |
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Joe—I think the comparison is a lot closer than you think. Foxx had 133 more ABs for his career than Gehrig but hit 41 more HRs. He won three MVPs vs Gehrig’s two, he was a better fielder. Gehrig had a slightly higher batting average and more RBI’s, but he played for a lot better team. I agree Gehrig was better but it was pretty close. If Foxx was a Yankee and Gehrig was an Athletic the comparison would probably flip in Fox’s favor.
I was reading a list that was put together in 1994 of the greatest hitters of all time. Here it is: 10. Willie Mays 9. Hank Aaron 8. Joe Jackson 7. Stan Musial 6. Ty Cobb 5. Joe DiMaggio 4. Rogers Hornsby 3. Jimmie Foxx 2. Lou Gehrig 1. Babe Ruth Oh, there is a reason Williams is not on the list—he put it together. |
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Setting aside the PEDs the list of the ten most productive hitters in history is incomplete without Barry Bonds.
162.8 WAR (4th all time; 1st all time for position players) 6th all time on base % 8th all time slugging % 5th all time OPS 3rd runs scored 5th total bases 1st walks 1st home runs But I digress... The Gehrig is the perfect storm of adverse issues. --The initial price is a PWCC price so who knows if it is legit --The card is grossly overgraded. The card corners look to me like they were rounded intentionally. The card should have gotten an A. Buyers with $100K to spend aren't going to be fooled by an overgrade of this magnitude. --There was a reserve. I agree that reserves depress bidding. The card Scott posted is typical of my experience with SGC grading Exhibit cards: they knock the snot out of them. Between the full bleed image and the size, a 5 on a prewar Exhibit is a very strong grade. At the 2006 National I purchased a small grouo of really nice fresh-to-the-hobby 1928s and i think the best grade I got out of the lot was a 5.5.
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#48
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Also Foxx benefited greatly by playing in his home ballparks while Gehrig was actually better on the road.
Gehrig had a lifetime road batting average of .351 and an OPS of 1.103 while Foxx batted .306 with an OPS of .966. That is a huge difference. IMHO, Gehrig was a much better player. Last edited by robertsmithnocure; 01-29-2023 at 01:25 AM. |
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In order to have a fair, apples to apples comparison of all the great hitters, I adjusted HOFers career stats to reflect what they would have been if they'd slurped up PEDs like Bonds.
Ruth's revised numbers are 1600 homeruns and a .485 batting average. Hank Aaron's are 1425 and .440. Interestingly, Bonds didn't even make the top 100. Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk |
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Gehrig
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