Graded vs. Raw Rant.......

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BobC

Great points, and also exemplifies how the hobby is and will continue to be doing well, even should the higher-end, higher-priced graded card market ever suffer and start coming down. The collector base is there, and will continue to be there, for at least quite some time to come.

Even in 2008-2009, and that was the worst time I can recall in terms of activity.

[Jenx34]

I'm not sure if my take is unique, but I'll add my thoughts anyway.
On Graded cards
Personally my collection, outside of sets, which I am very limited in, when I buy a raw card it either goes into the pile to be graded or to be sold. I'm talking Vintage. If a card is worthy of keeping (with few exceptions), it should be graded. For preservation, primarily, but not just that. I generally like cards with a certain level of eye appeal and that tends to bottom at around a 4 or higher. Granted, my '53 Topps Paige is a 2.5 and one of my favorite cards, so it's not all black and white. I was always a corners guy so sharp corners and great color were more important than centering. That has begun to shift, but not all the say, so now I find the minimum quality of card I prefer a little higher grade than before. In general, I typically would buy 50's and 60's cards in the 4-6/7 range and 70's in the 6-9 range (more on 70's later)

On Buying Raw Cards
Again, establishing that I am a bit of a condition snob and do plan to get most keepers graded. Most raw cards I find at a show or LCS, and Ebay (separate discussion), are not the quality they are sold as, at least not relative to a graded card scale. My biggest issue is with my eyes. In most places I'm viewing raw cards, the lighting is not proper, there isn't a good background, etc. I carry a handheld magnifying glass, but still it's not the same looking at it as when I'm at home using the proper lighting and tools. Almost every time I get a card home and find flaws I didn't see when buying. By all of the threads/comments I see on various sources, of people complaining about the grades they get from PSA/SGC, I suspect that I am far from the minority in that my eyes can't catch enough in a live situation. So I will buy raw cards, but I am very hesitant and guarded when doing so. I know some don't care if a card is EX vs. NM if it looks good. I'm not wired that way. If I am going to pay NM pricing, I want to know that it is at least that. Too many cards are overpriced, and I suspect more for the reasons above than dishonesty. In general, we all think our cards are better than they probably are. And that's probably the biggest reason grading cards became a thing in the first place. The same reason coins, comic books, etc. are graded. There has to be a way to separate a very nice looking item from an elite item.

On Grading 70's Cards
I believe what most are missing here is the effect of Father Time. 1970's cards are now entering the 50 years old range. While you can find nice EX-EXMT examples, I submit there are FAR fewer examples that would grade in the 7-9 range, especially earlier in the decade). I really believe that buying stars in the 7-9 range right now is a great spot for upcoming growth. Think about it. The 70's are 2 decades behind the 50s and one behind the 60s and have great stars to collect. In 10-20 years from now, people will look back on that decade and remember it fondly and with nostalgia, just as they do the 50's and 60's now. As the OP said, it's easy to find EX+ condition in those cards. But is it really easy to find true NM and above condition and know they'll be kept that way? So I do think 70's graded cards are a good thing, at least in terms of the stars and in higher grades. I also agree that getting a card graded that's EX and gets a 5 probably isn't worth doing. Yet, anyway.

[homerunhitter]

Absolutely wonderful write up Chris. Is was very helpful. You answered a question that I was going to ask so thank you! That question was, was is an "acceptable" grade for topps vintage that most people look for. for 50s, 60s, and 70s, and you broke it down perfectly. now i know how to focus my searching for vintage topps graded cards.

I do find interesting that while searching for a card that I like on ebay, I found one in a psa 4 and one in a psa 6, the interesting part is the psa 4 looked better and had better centering than the psa 6! I was going to buy the psa 6 but then realized that the psa 4 had better eye appeal and coloring!

[Jenx34]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Absolutely wonderful write up Chris. Is was very helpful. You answered a question that I was going to ask so thank you! That question was, was is an "acceptable" grade for topps vintage that most people look for. for 50s, 60s, and 70s, and you broke it down perfectly. now i know how to focus my searching for vintage topps graded cards.

I do find interesting that while searching for a card that I like on ebay, I found one in a psa 4 and one in a psa 6, the interesting part is the psa 4 looked better and had better centering than the psa 6! I was going to buy the psa 6 but then realized that the psa 4 had better eye appeal and coloring!

I'm going to try not to be as wordy this time. Two things....
1. The biggest caveat I have is to buy what you like, and don't focus on the grade too much. Some people enjoy buying older cards in 1s and 2s because they are affordable and it allows them to buy more cards. Theoretically, you can always upgrade later, so the theory is get in the door and buy a card you want even in a lower grade. But the most important thing is buy what you like. As an investment, it gets a little more cloudy. I think you're good with Star HOF's in most any grade pre-1970s. In the '70's I'd stick to higher grades when possible, but I'm convinced that 20 years from now, PSA 4s and 5s of Pete Rose, Nolan Ryan, George Brett, etc. will be in demand and have value.
2. Cards can earn a grade for a few reasons. It can be one single flaw that lands a card at a certain grade level, or several minor flaws that on their own wouldn't add up to much. Combine that with centering and you can definitely find lower graded cards that look better than a higher graded example. That's why buying the card is so important and making sure you like it. A 70/30 centered card won't look as nice as a 55/45 card when holding it in front of you, assuming there are no major flaws on either surface. But that 70/30 card may have nice crisp corners and little edge wear, whereas the 55/45 could have softer corners and more edge wear. In the end, they may attain the same grade. The key is which looks good to you. To my eyes, 80% of cards look EXMT-NM when held at arms length, which is why I look closer. For me, balancing what a card would grade with eye appeal is the sweet spot. For someone else it may be all about eye appeal or simply about owning that card. To someone else they may be fixated on a possible grade only. There are lots of different flavors and why this hobby is great, because not everyone collects the same way.