JT Realmuto HOF'er?

[todeen]

Do you think JT Realmuto is a HOF'er? He has been top 5 OPS since 2016, and top 2 since 2019; and last year he was the first 20/20 catcher since Ivan Rodriguez in 1999. He also has two GG and three silver sluggers, so he is being honored by voters for his accomplishments.

I bring this up because some MLB writers already passing the crown to Rutschman.

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[G1911]

No

[D. Bergin]

I think he's a real longshot. Likely he falls into Jorge Posada / Lance Parrish territory by the time his career is over.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by todeen

Do you think JT Realmuto is a HOF'er? He has been top 5 OPS since 2016, and top 2 since 2019; and last year he was the first 20/20 catcher since Ivan Rodriguez in 1999. He also has two GG and three silver sluggers, so he is being honored by voters for his accomplishments.

I bring this up because some MLB writers already passing the crown to Rutschman.

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He has been top 5 in OPS since 2016 and top 2 in OPS since 2019? Top 2 on his team? I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from.

Guy has a career OPS of 114--not great. But if he has 3 or 4 more years like he did in 2022, sure its a definite possibility.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

He has been top 5 in OPS since 2016 and top 2 in OPS since 2019? Top 2 on his team? I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from.

Guy has a career OPS of 114--not great. But if he has 3 or 4 more years like he did in 2022, sure its a definite possibility.

I didn't look it up, but I assume he means from a Catcher.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I didn't look it up, but I assume he means from a Catcher.

Oh, if that is the case, I am not sure top 5 OPS for a catcher is major accomplishment.

[Peter_Spaeth]

The way it keeps getting diluted, I guess anything is possible, but with Posey and Molina going in that should satisfy the demand for catchers for many years I would think.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The way it keeps getting diluted, I guess anything is possible, but with Posey and Molina going in that should satisfy the demand for catchers for many years I would think.

Do you think Molina getting in is a foregone conclusion? I know he is an amazing fielder, but an OPS+ of 96?

Posey won ROY, MVP, a batting title, and 3 World Series, so I think he has a better case.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Do you think Molina getting in is a foregone conclusion? I know he is an amazing fielder, but an OPS+ of 96?

Posey won ROY, MVP, a batting title, and 3 World Series, so I think he has a better case.

I should add Mauer as well. Molina not first ballot but yeah he's in,.

[G1911]

I know my view is the minority here and the consensus seems to be that they are hall of famers, but Molina’s traditional and advanced stat lines both are clearly below Cooperstown standard. Posey played well enough but for so few games that I have a hard time seeing it. Someone from that 3 WS Giants team has to make it though so he’ll sail in.

Realmuto is not on track, he’s below any serious candidate.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Deserving or not is not the issue. I think Posey and Molina will nonetheless make it.

[cgjackson222]

There are many borderline HOF catchers on the outside looking in: Munson, Gene Tenace, Wally Schang, Bill Freehan, Charlie Bennett, Jorge Posada….

Would like to see one of them get in before being leapfrogged by Molina.

[Phishphan21]

If JT plays another 20 years then maybe

[mrreality68]

At this point in his career no. Not even border line to me

[Mike D.]

It really depends on how he ages from here on out, and aging for catchers isn't the easiest thing.

Realmuto has 31.3 WAR according to BB-R...35th all-time for catchers.

Every catcher over 50 career WAR is in the HOF (or will be once Mauer gets in).

Posey is at 44.8 and Molina at 42.3. If Realmuto can get into that range, he'll be a strong candidate.

Considering he's averaged 4.5 WAR per season for his last 5 full seasons (not counting shortened 2020 season), he's got a shot.

[D. Bergin]

I just noticed that Realmuto is almost the exact same age as Thurman Munson, when he had his accident.

Made me realize how much of a shoe-in Munson would have been if he had just played a few more years...even at a mediocre level.

Munson compiled a 46.1 WAR at the same age Realmuto is now. Realmuto is at 31.3 right now.

If he has a Carlton Fisk like 2nd half of his career, he's got a shot. That's a lot to ask though. Fisk had a 4.9 WAR season at age 42, playing mostly as a catcher. That just doesn't normally happen.

[BobbyStrawberry]

I think he's destined for the hall of very good.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I just noticed that Realmuto is almost the exact same age as Thuman Munson, when he had his accident.

Made me realize how much of a shoe-in Munson would have been if he had just played a few more years...even at a mediocre level.

Munson compiled a 46.1 WAR at the same age Realmuto is now. Realmuto is at 31.3 right now.

If he has a Carlton Fisk like 2nd half of his career, he's got a shot. That's a lot to ask though. Fisk had a 4.9 WAR season at age 42, playing mostly as a catcher. That just doesn't normally happen.

Correct, me if I'm wrong, Munson was beginning to show signs of decline, before his tragic death? Though I do think he would've made the Hall had he not suffered that unfortunate fate.

To the topic at hand, if Realmuto is somehow able to put up his average of 3.5 WAR for the next seven or so seasons, he might get in. Catchers are the hardest position, to make it to the Hall IMO, because of the durability issues all of them run into.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

He has been top 5 in OPS since 2016 and top 2 in OPS since 2019? Top 2 on his team? I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from.



Guy has a career OPS of 114--not great. But if he has 3 or 4 more years like he did in 2022, sure its a definite possibility.

I was looking at OPS of starting catchers on Baseball-Reference.com. Since 2018, he has averaged .820. That has placed him #1 or #2 along all starting catchers.

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[todeen]

Looking at all of your comments, here is my thinking.... I was trying to make a list of generational catchers since 1990.

1990s: Mike Piazza & Ivan Rodriguez
2000s: Joe Mauer
2010s: Buster Posey & Yadier Molina
2020s (so far): JT Realmuto

One argument for the HOF is peak performance compared to peers. Right now Realmuto has been the best offensive catcher for 5 years. Players at other positions start to get noticed around this time, and if their peak lasts 7-10 years they generally are in strong consideration for the Hall.

I do know that catchers have longevity problems. Reds have had a few who were one season wonders before getting derailed by injuries. But I'm rooting for Realmuto. His 20/20 season last year should have been the offensive story of the Phillies, but he was overshadowed by Harper playing with his elbow injury. He really helped last years WS team tremendously.

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[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by todeen

Looking at all of your comments, here is my thinking.... I was trying to make a list of generational catchers since 1990.

1990s: Mike Piazza & Ivan Rodriguez
2000s: Joe Mauer
2010s: Buster Posey & Yadier Molina
2020s (so far): JT Realmuto

One argument for the HOF is peak performance compared to peers. Right now Realmuto has been the best offensive catcher for 5 years. Players at other positions start to get noticed around this time, and if their peak lasts 7-10 years they generally are in strong consideration for the Hall.

I do know that catchers have longevity problems. Reds have had a few who were one season wonders before getting derailed by injuries. But I'm rooting for Realmuto. His 20/20 season last year should have been the offensive story of the Phillies, but he was overshadowed by Harper playing with his elbow injury. He really helped last years WS team tremendously.

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Sadly to me you can not use the generational catcher argument if the period is not strong with catchers. His peak period is not very strong compared to other generational catchers.

Good player not great just his contemporaries are often one hit wonders like Gary Sanchez

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by Seven

Correct, me if I'm wrong, Munson was beginning to show signs of decline, before his tragic death? Though I do think he would've made the Hall had he not suffered that unfortunate fate.

Munson had shown signs of a significant decline, but agreed that maybe three more years would have probably put him over the top. He just needed more stat padding which would have come with time...1500 hits and 118 HRs is just hard to accept of a hall of famer. If you want to say "what if" you hit a really slippery slope.

All that said, he was a star when I was a kid, I feel like the 70s are largely underrepresented and I wouldn't cry foul if he made it in a side door to Cooperstown.

[packs]

Jorge Posada gets no respect. While never failing a test I think there was something artificial about both Piazza and Pudge's careers and they were the only better catchers than Posada during his career. He was certainly better than 9 out of 10 catchers and he fell below 5% on his first ballot.

No way Realmuto gets any serious consideration.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Jorge Posada gets no respect. While never failing a test I think there was something artificial about both Piazza and Pudge's careers and they were the only better catchers than Posada during his career. He was certainly better than 9 out of 10 catchers and he fell below 5% on his first ballot.

No way Realmuto gets any serious consideration.

I always suspected both of those guys.

[Mike D.]

The thing that really hurt Posada is that he didn't play a full season until his age 27 season. Before his age 30 season, he played in only 443 big league games.

The fact that based on that and being a catcher he's even in the conversation of something like the Hall of Fame is really impressive.

By comparison, Rodriguez debuted at 19 and had played 1,371 games by his age 30 season. Piazza debuted at 23 and had played 840 games by his age 30 season.

[philliesfan]

Yes. If you compare his stats to Rizzuto. Otherwise not yet.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by packs

Jorge Posada gets no respect. While never failing a test I think there was something artificial about both Piazza and Pudge's careers and they were the only better catchers than Posada during his career. He was certainly better than 9 out of 10 catchers and he fell below 5% on his first ballot.

No way Realmuto gets any serious consideration.

posada should have gotten more respect and consideration. But to me he was bordeline HOFer

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

posada should have gotten more respect and consideration. But to me he was bordeline HOFer

One side effect of the more transparent HOF voting process (which is generally a good thing) is that it seems like borderline candidates who at least deserve to hang around the ballot a few years are falling below the 5% threshold faster than in the past.

There are lots of guys who probably aren't Hall of Famers, but a few years on the ballot may allow for further appreciation of their careers.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I always suspected both of those guys.

I think the "suspected" thing is kind of garbage. You can make a circumstantial accusation against most any player...hard to prove a negative.

Heck, not going to go near saying Posada used, but a guy who suddenly became an above-average regular at 27, played until he was 40, and played with guys like Giambi, Sheffield, and Pettitte? See how easy it is to "suspect" someone?

[JollyElm]

People can throw around all of the advanced stats they want, but the difference here with Posada is that we 'all' saw him play his entire career. Watching countless Yankees games on Channel 11, not once did I think of him as a Hall of Famer. The thought never entered my mind. Various other players, like Jeter, yup, but not Posada.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I think the "suspected" thing is kind of garbage. You can make a circumstantial accusation against most any player...hard to prove a negative.

Heck, not going to go near saying Posada used, but a guy who suddenly became an above-average regular at 27, played until he was 40, and played with guys like Giambi, Sheffield, and Pettitte? See how easy it is to "suspect" someone?

I hear you, but if memory serves there were some pretty valid reasons to suspect Piazza and IRod and a lot of people did at the time.

As for Posada, this Sox fan would pick him for his team every time and twice on Sundays, but not a HOFer.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I hear you, but if memory serves there were some pretty valid reasons to suspect Piazza and IRod and a lot of people did at the time.

In my memory, the reasons were stuff like "big muscles and pimpley backs" but I may have missed some more compelling stuff.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mike d.

in my memory, the reasons were stuff like "big muscles and pimpley backs" but i may have missed some more compelling stuff. :d

lol.

Piazza admitted to using andro.

https://www.metstoday.com/10592/14-1...d-taking-peds/

I am sure Canseco named IRod, for whatever that is or isnt worth. Frank Thomas I think also accused him.

[todeen]

Article stating that Statcast ranks Realmuto as the best skills catcher in MLB. He has the best transfer time, second fastest throw, and is third in caught stealing percentage. He leads in put outs since 2016, 118 vs 81 for second place Martin Maldonado.

Check out this story from Fox Sports
https://foxsports.onelink.me/SY6x/99uvp0ue

Which by the way, JT Realmuto does not have a RC shield on his card. He was only released in Topps Update and High Series Heritage in 2015. But in 2014, Donruss had a RC card shield for him.


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[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't follow your point? If his RC is in 2014 you wouldn't expect his 2015 cards to be designated RCs?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't follow your point? If his RC is in 2014 you wouldn't expect his 2015 cards to be designated RCs?

I believe Topps marks rookies only considering other Topps cards and nobody else; they don’t care if Panini or Upper Deck or whoever makes a card first. Thus, it’s an error.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I believe Topps marks rookies only considering other Topps cards and nobody else; they don’t care if Panini or Upper Deck or whoever makes a card first. Thus, it’s an error.

I thought MLB determined the criteria for the RC logo. What Topps cards are designated RC where another manufacturer printed one with an RC logo in an earlier year? I can't think of any player with cards from different years both with the logo. Or are you saying only Topps is allowed to use an official logo?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I thought MLB determined the criteria for the RC logo. What Topps cards are designated RC where another manufacturer printed one with an RC logo in an earlier year? I can't think of any player with cards from different years both with the logo. Or are you saying only Topps is allowed to use an official logo?

No. I said that when Topps applies the logo, meeting the MLB rules that it comes after a players first game, they apply it to the players first year Topps cards. I don’t think they track if a player appeared in Panini or Upper Deck Goodwin or whatever first. Thus, the poster is highlighting the oddity. That’s it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

No. I said that when Topps applies the logo, meeting the MLB rules that it comes after a players first game, they apply it to the players first year Topps cards. I don’t think they track if a player appeared in Panini or Upper Deck Goodwin or whatever first. Thus, the poster is highlighting the oddity. That’s it.

So the Donruss 2014 logo does not meet the criteria? OHHHH, I see now, it's not an official logo on the Donruss. LOL. They just made up their own. OK I think I see the issue now.

In my defense, Tim's post was not a model of clarity.

[G1911]

Editing since it was edited and isn’t relevant now.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Are there other post-official logo cards with an unofficial logo?

[Peter_Spaeth]

He came up end of 2014. Might the Donruss rookie set have been issued after his debut? And if so, what's his rookie card, since the Donruss would seem to meet the criteria at that point, no? I hope he never makes the HOF so I don't have to deal with this.

[jayshum]

From the Jason Stark column mentioned in a different thread, he has Realmuto as a possibility but not close enough to give him a good chance right now.

J.T. REALMUTO — I came really close to including Realmuto in the “On a Path” Club. I couldn’t quite get there. On one hand, he’s 32 and still has accumulated “only” 31.0 WAR. On the other hand, that feels too low.

How long has he been in the Best All-Around Catcher in Baseball debate? Five years? Eight years? There’s not much argument that he has been the best defensive catcher in the sport for most of those years. He’s also among the best offensive catchers in the sport. And he goes to the post so much, no other catcher is within 100 games caught of him over those last eight seasons.

I’m not sure why WAR has always been an imperfect way to measure catchers. But that feels especially true in his case. What Adley Rutschman aspires to be, Realmuto already is.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He came up end of 2014. Might the Donruss rookie set have been issued after his debut? And if so, what's his rookie card, since the Donruss would seem to meet the criteria at that point, no? I hope he never makes the HOF so I don't have to deal with this.

My post about his 2015 card missing the RC shield is to highlight how many modern buyers don't like off brands that cannot officially use the team emblems on jerseys. So for modern collectors of all things Topps (like me - I just cannot buy Panini products), it creates a conundrum. Do I buy the 2014 Donruss Realmuto because that is his only RC, or do I follow Beckett's lead and buy the 2015 Topps Update that has no shield, and simply declare it his offical RC?

https://www.beckett.com/news/the-dai...o-rookie-card/

[todeen]

Originally Posted by jayshum

From the Jason Stark column mentioned in a different thread, he has Realmuto as a possibility but not close enough to give him a good chance right now.

J.T. REALMUTO — I came really close to including Realmuto in the “On a Path” Club. I couldn’t quite get there. On one hand, he’s 32 and still has accumulated “only” 31.0 WAR. On the other hand, that feels too low.

How long has he been in the Best All-Around Catcher in Baseball debate? Five years? Eight years? There’s not much argument that he has been the best defensive catcher in the sport for most of those years. He’s also among the best offensive catchers in the sport. And he goes to the post so much, no other catcher is within 100 games caught of him over those last eight seasons.

I’m not sure why WAR has always been an imperfect way to measure catchers. But that feels especially true in his case. What Adley Rutschman aspires to be, Realmuto already is.

Realmuto has been in the Top 3 Argument since 2016, and officially became #1 catcher in 2018. He is certainly at his peak for 2-3 more years. When he hits 34/35 yo, we will see him start to slip. I really hope with the new baserunning rules we see him reach the 30/30 standard. Wouldn't that be something.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by todeen

Realmuto has been in the Top 3 Argument since 2016, and officially became #1 catcher in 2018. He is certainly at his peak for 2-3 more years. When he hits 34/35 yo, we will see him start to slip. I really hope with the new baserunning rules we see him reach the 30/30 standard. Wouldn't that be something.

His career high for home runs is 25 so getting to 30 seems unlikely as he ages.

[packs]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

People can throw around all of the advanced stats they want, but the difference here with Posada is that we 'all' saw him play his entire career. Watching countless Yankees games on Channel 11, not once did I think of him as a Hall of Famer. The thought never entered my mind. Various other players, like Jeter, yup, but not Posada.

Who is a recent Hall of Fame catcher that you’ve watched every day? What made them a HOFer and not Posada? I’d rather have Posada than Posey and people seem to generally view Posey as a no doubter.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by jayshum

His career high for home runs is 25 so getting to 30 seems unlikely as he ages.

It's a stretch. But Votto proved that players can change their approach at the plate for more power. I think that was in 2021. So Realmuto could give up something for more power. Of course that might affect his SB. Regardless, it would certainly be interesting.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by todeen

My post about his 2015 card missing the RC shield is to highlight how many modern buyers don't like off brands that cannot officially use the team emblems on jerseys. So for modern collectors of all things Topps (like me - I just cannot buy Panini products), it creates a conundrum. Do I buy the 2014 Donruss Realmuto because that is his only RC, or do I follow Beckett's lead and buy the 2015 Topps Update that has no shield, and simply declare it his offical RC?

https://www.beckett.com/news/the-dai...o-rookie-card/

I vote for 2014. It's not a prospect card, it's not an insert, it's not an online only, so how is it not his RC?