Operationalizing rarity

[G1911]

Originally Posted by MR RAREBACK

I am going with 50

This is about what I would call it, somewhere between 25-50. I am surprised the answers so far are largely 10 and below; considering what I see routinely referred to as rare around here.

Valuable is separate from rare; rare only measures supply.

[Exhibitman]

I wrote an article about rarity (creatively entitled "Rare..."). My definition of absolute rarity was few of the item in existence, hard to find in any condition at any time.

Absolute rarity is wonderful and complicated all at the same time. On the one hand, when you have a truly rare item, you have something truly special. Of course, the flip side is that the card is going to be a real bitch to replace, if you can replace it at all, should you sell or trade it away.

I am not sure I can pick a hard cut-off for absolute rarity, though. I mean if there are 21 examples of a card instead of 20, is it no longer rare? That seems to be an absurdly reductionist way of looking at it.

I guess for me the bottom line is that rarity is like obscenity: i can't tell you precisely what it is but I know it when I see it.

[oldjudge]

I think it is more than the absolute number that exist; it is the absolute number that are circulating. If there are 20 copies of a card that exist but 15 of those are in public collections like the HOF, Burdick Collection, Wharton Tigre Collection, various library collections, etc then the card is rare. If all 20 copies are floating around then it is just scarce.

[Snapolit1]

The most important card in the hobby, the 52 Mantle, is neither scarce nor rare.

Never understood that.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I think it is more than the absolute number that exist; it is the absolute number that are circulating. If there are 20 copies of a card that exist but 15 of those are in public collections like the HOF, Burdick Collection, Wharton Tigre Collection, various library collections, etc then the card is rare. If all 20 copies are floating around then it is just scarce.

If that's true, then it follows that if I were to acquire and hold every copy of the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. it would become correct for one to call it a rare card. I think rare is just rare, whether all extant copies are currently up for auction on eBay or no copies have been offered for 100 years.

[Leon]

It depends on what we are talking about. If it's a type card to start with, then maybe 5 or less is rare, to me.
If it is from a mainstream set, that number can jump greatly. Then, there are other aspects of rarity, such as condition rarity. I hear there are more, vintage high grade cards being made every day....Tip- buy cards with bigger borders.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by Leon

It depends on what we are talking about. If it's a type card to start with, then maybe 5 or less is rare, to me.
... Then, there are other aspects of rarity, such as condition rarity. ...

One of my favorite sets is a post-war regional / food issue, the 1953 Stahl-Meyer Franks. Only 9 comprise the set, but it's a condition nightmare. Case in point: Mickey Mantle. The current PSA pop report is:

AUTHENTIC--2

PSA 1 / 1.5 -- 50

PSA 2 -- 8

PSA 3 -- 1

PSA 4 -- 2

PSA 5 -- 0

PSA 6 -- 2

PSA 7 -- 1

PSA 8 -- 0

PSA 9 -- 1

PSA 10 -- 0

A fascinating breakdown. You can pound the table all you wish about absolute rarity, and count the Authentics and PSA 1s. Be that as it may, since most of them were issued within the package of frankfurters (having marinated in the not so nice greasy / watery hot dog juice and goo) as a package stiffener, the resultant "free prize" was a less than tantalizing PSA 1 - 2 right from the start. Long to short, when it comes to Stahl-Meyer Franks, CONDITION RARITY CARRIES AN IMMENSE AMOUNT OF WEIGHT (I.E. SPECIAL SIGNIFICANCE).

Food for thought. --- Brian Powell

[paul]

Aren't there more than 10 Baltimore Ruths? I think whatever the number is, that card has to be considered rare. You never see it for sale.

[oldjudge]

Paul—I believe the number is nine or ten