Out of Touch

[gunboat82]

I've always been a bit out of touch, but lately I feel like I'm on a different planet. The latest Clean Sweep auction has made me question all of my everything I thought I knew about current values. Some of the cards -- in particular Ruths and Gehrigs -- are already priced higher than I thought they'd be after the 22% premium is added. I think some of these are going to set sales records for low-grade copies with average to below-average eye appeal.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

I've always been a bit out of touch, but lately I feel like I'm on a different planet. The latest Clean Sweep auction has made me question all of my everything I thought I knew about current values. Some of the cards -- in particular Ruths and Gehrigs -- are already priced higher than I thought they'd be after the 22% premium is added. I think some of these are going to set sales records for low-grade copies with average to below-average eye appeal.

I share your shock...ante'd up for this one in the not too distant past for far beyond my wildest nightmare price but I wanted to make sure I got one before it got even higher:



Some stuff I have I probably don't have if I had to buy it today.

[DeanH3]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

I've always been a bit out of touch, but lately I feel like I'm on a different planet. The latest Clean Sweep auction has made me question all of my everything I thought I knew about current values. Some of the cards -- in particular Ruths and Gehrigs -- are already priced higher than I thought they'd be after the 22% premium is added. I think some of these are going to set sales records for low-grade copies with average to below-average eye appeal.

I'm with you Mike. I guess I'm going to have to cross a Ruth off my list. I am grateful I got one many years ago. So at least I have one. But prices are just insane.

[timber63401]

The split between true collectors and investors/flippers have never been more skewered. Everyone is trying to squeeze all the profit out of everything. I never feel bad for people trying to make money flipping cards and failing. The market is way wonky right now and something has to give eventually I keep thinking the give is gonna be a price crash but maybe the give is just going to be the common man will be priced out permanently. If I could flip a magic switch we all would wake up tomorrow to a crashed market. Nothing I would love more then 1000 dollar 33 Goudey Ruths.

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by timber63401

The split between true collectors and investors/flippers have never been more skewered. Everyone is trying to squeeze all the profit out of everything. I never feel bad for people trying to make money flipping cards and failing. The market is way wonky right now and something has to give eventually I keep thinking the give is gonna be a price crash but maybe the give is just going to be the common man will be priced out permanently. If I could flip a magic switch we all would wake up tomorrow to a crashed market. Nothing I would love more than 1000 dollar 33 Goudey Ruths.

It seems to me that a total market crash for vintage is pretty much impossible at this point in the near-to-medium term, absent a broader economic collapse. There are more than enough of us who would start buying way before prices dropped that significantly.

Long-term, there’s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I’m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I’m 48), and I think there’s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by ASF123

It seems to me that a total market crash for vintage is pretty much impossible at this point in the near-to-medium term, absent a broader economic collapse. There are more than enough of us who would start buying way before prices dropped that significantly.

Long-term, there’s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I’m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I’m 48), and I think there’s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

Not saying that a crash is likely or not...but one of the characteristics of a bubble is the belief that it's different this time and that things can only go up.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Not saying that a crash is likely or not...but one of the characteristics of a bubble is the belief that it's different this time and that things can only go up.

Except when it comes to vintage sports cards it seems; someday never comes.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Except when it comes to vintage sports cards it seems; someday never comes.

Crashes have come and gone. The market has just come roaring back, although sometimes it took a few years to really get back to pre-crash levels.

Certainly there was a crash around 93 after the big runup from late 80s and early 90s, and then another around the Great Recession. I suppose we can debate just how far things fell each time and whether that really constitutes a full sized crash or just a minor pullback, but there were definite declines of substantial percentages.

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Not saying that a crash is likely or not...but one of the characteristics of a bubble is the belief that it's different this time and that things can only go up.

I’m not saying things can only go up. Just that a total crash seems highly unlikely - again, barring a broader economic collapse.

[Seven]

I empathize with a lot that's been said in this thread. I've become a little disillusioned with the Hobby over the course of this past year. Haven't even been active here on Net54 since February of this year.

Collecting is a life long journey, I've been told this and have repeated it to others. The unfortunate thing at the moment is that cardboard has become an asset class. Vintage, modern it doesn't matter people are rapidly buying up a storm, with no end in sight. On the bright side at least the cards were purchasing are of players who actually existed and are noteworthy. I truly feel bad for the collectors of Pokemon cards and the likes, with how wild and crazy that market has become.

Up is down, left is right in our Hobby nowadays. We're certainly in some turbulent economic times; Gold has hit 4000 an ounce. I don't know if their will be a proverbial crash in what we collect or even the economy. All I know is that as a 30-something whose barely making over six figures, I cannot collect the cards I want at the moment. It's either save for a house or buy cardboard. And as much as I want to do the second one, I cannot live in a house made out of Babe Ruths and Mickey Mantles

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by ASF123

It seems to me that a total market crash for vintage is pretty much impossible at this point in the near-to-medium term, absent a broader economic collapse. There are more than enough of us who would start buying way before prices dropped that significantly.

Long-term, there’s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I’m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I’m 48), and I think there’s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

While perhaps the numbers will drop, there’ll always be new blood joining the vintage hunt. As long as there are nostalgic men 40+ with some money and an appreciation for history, they’ll be there. I got back into the hobby to collect signed cards from my youth in the ‘80s, and a year later was all-in on pre-war. This site is full of those people.

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by ASF123

Long-term, there’s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I’m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I’m 48), and I think there’s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

I'm your Huckleberry - 68 Years old and have been collecting for easily over 35 years.

I also think there are more guys out there in my age group than you might think -

[JollyElm]

Every time I see the thread title, my blue-eyed soul, two-part harmony brain immediately begins singing...

hallandoatesoutoftouch.jpg

[tulsaboy]

Originally Posted by timber63401

The split between true collectors and investors/flippers have never been more skewered. Everyone is trying to squeeze all the profit out of everything. I never feel bad for people trying to make money flipping cards and failing.

It's a hobby. A complete and totally unnecessary thing. I suspect for the overwhelming majority of card collectors, it's just fun. It's supposed to be fun. I think it's much more miserable when you're focused (panicked) about trying to make money with it. There are options for every budget across all segments of the hobby, if you are actually interested in it as a hobby. It's completely unrealistic to expect that we will be able to buy 33 Goudey Ruths for $500 anytime in the future, but there are plenty of vintage options for under $100- even with high-profile sets like T206s and 52 Topps. The problem arises when someone is trying to flip for profit. I adhere to a simple approach- I collect what interests me and what makes me smile, within the budget that I have. I have plenty of nice things, because I've been doing that for 30+ years. But I couldn't care less about trying to flip them for a profit. I'm sure I could, at this point, but having them, collecting them, is the fun part for me. I know that my approach is not the only approach, but I agree with the poster above- I have little sympathy for flippers who are sad that it's gotten harder to sqeeze more money out of collectors like me.

Just my 2 cents.

kevin

[JJ McGraw]

Originally Posted by tulsaboy

It's a hobby. A complete and totally unnecessary thing. I suspect for the overwhelming majority of card collectors, it's just fun. It's supposed to be fun. I think it's much more miserable when you're focused (panicked) about trying to make money with it. There are options for every budget across all segments of the hobby, if you are actually interested in it as a hobby. It's completely unrealistic to expect that we will be able to buy 33 Goudey Ruths for $500 anytime in the future, but there are plenty of vintage options for under $100- even with high-profile sets like T206s and 52 Topps. The problem arises when someone is trying to flip for profit. I adhere to a simple approach- I collect what interests me and what makes me smile, within the budget that I have. I have plenty of nice things, because I've been doing that for 30+ years. But I couldn't care less about trying to flip them for a profit. I'm sure I could, at this point, but having them, collecting them, is the fun part for me. I know that my approach is not the only approach, but I agree with the poster above- I have little sympathy for flippers who are sad that it's gotten harder to sqeeze more money out of collectors like me.

Just my 2 cents.

kevin

AMEN KEVIN…..couldn’t have said it better!

[Exhibitman]

James, I didn't have the money to spend on cards the way I wanted to as I supported and raised my family so I made a deal with myself: I eat when I kill. The money coming out finances what goes back in. if I don't have it I don't spend it. If I want to go after a card, I figure out what I can sell to do it. And I try to do it profitably. A surge like the one we're in now, ride that sucker like a big wave after a storm. This stuff is cyclical. There are very few cards that are not going to come back up for sale in the medium term. I hold the few that don't. The rest I enjoy until the price is right and then I get out. For now. I've built then sold a 1954 Topps set 3 times. Starting over is more fun than holding static.

Like it or not, we are all flippers and investors in some respect. Sure, you may not sell but your heirs will. Or your kids will when you are salted away in a facility obliviously drooling into your oatmeal. So why not just go with it and admit that the finances play a role? Trust me, you'll feel better not being intellectually dishonest. I can only speak to my experience. Once I got real with myself and learned to hold two ideas in my mind at once (that cards are fun and that cards are investments), I found it very freeing. It is so much easier to consciously aim for both profit and fun than to pretend the money side is irrelevant or nonexistent. I discovered that when I did that, my hesitation at buying a really special piece went away because I understood that I could and would be able to sell it down the line after I finish enjoying it. Cards aren't fleeting like a good meal, they are permanent, like old man stink in a recliner. My friends who don't collect consume their fun; I invest in it. It also opens your mind to fresh angles, like Ryan's pivot to card-adjacent stuff. Me too. Bought my first slabbed ticket recently, and it wasn't baseball.



Ayrton Senna's 1st F1 Victory.

I love old cardboard. It is a happy place for me. I also love turning a profit on old cardboard. That it is a happy place for me. Collectors get the endorphin hits of acquisition and ownership. I get three endorphin hits for my money: when I buy, when I own, when I cash out.

[Seven]

Very well said, Adam. And that is an absolutely fantastic piece for Senna. Shame he passed so young, and so tragically.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

James, I didn't have the money to spend on cards the way I wanted to as I supported and raised my family so I made a deal with myself: I eat when I kill. The money coming out finances what goes back in. if I don't have it I don't spend it. If I want to go after a card, I figure out what I can sell to do it. And I try to do it profitably. A surge like the one we're in now, ride that sucker like a big wave after a storm. This stuff is cyclical. There are very few cards that are not going to come back up for sale in the medium term. I hold the few that don't. The rest I enjoy until the price is right and then I get out. For now. I've built then sold a 1954 Topps set 3 times. Starting over is more fun than holding static.

Like it or not, we are all flippers and investors in some respect. Sure, you may not sell but your heirs will. Or your kids will when you are salted away in a facility obliviously drooling into your oatmeal. So why not just go with it and admit that the finances play a role? Trust me, you'll feel better not being intellectually dishonest. I can only speak to my experience. Once I got real with myself and learned to hold two ideas in my mind at once (that cards are fun and that cards are investments), I found it very freeing. It is so much easier to consciously aim for both profit and fun than to pretend the money side is irrelevant or nonexistent. I discovered that when I did that, my hesitation at buying a really special piece went away because I understood that I could and would be able to sell it down the line after I finish enjoying it. Cards aren't fleeting like a good meal, they are permanent, like old man stink in a recliner. My friends who don't collect consume their fun; I invest in it. It also opens your mind to fresh angles, like Ryan's pivot to card-adjacent stuff. Me too. Bought my first slabbed ticket recently, and it wasn't baseball.



Ayrton Senna's 1st F1 Victory.

I love old cardboard. It is a happy place for me. I also love turning a profit on old cardboard. That it is a happy place for me. Collectors get the endorphin hits of acquisition and ownership. I get three endorphin hits for my money: when I buy, when I own, when I cash out.

It is not intellectually dishonest to differentiate between collecting cards and buying cards with the sole intent on flipping them for profit as your income. It is intellectually dishonest to suggest they are the same. Yes, we all understand our cards have market value and that one day they will be sold, hopefully for more than we paid. That is not even remotely the same as someone seeking arbitrage opportunities to make money in an inefficient market. In the former, the card is the object of the hobby. In the latter, the card is irelevant as it is merely a vehicle for profit.