Out of Touch

ASF123 · #1 10-08-2025, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timber63401

The split between true collectors and investors/flippers have never been more skewered. Everyone is trying to squeeze all the profit out of everything. I never feel bad for people trying to make money flipping cards and failing. The market is way wonky right now and something has to give eventually I keep thinking the give is gonna be a price crash but maybe the give is just going to be the common man will be priced out permanently. If I could flip a magic switch we all would wake up tomorrow to a crashed market. Nothing I would love more than 1000 dollar 33 Goudey Ruths.

It seems to me that a total market crash for vintage is pretty much impossible at this point in the near-to-medium term, absent a broader economic collapse. There are more than enough of us who would start buying way before prices dropped that significantly.

Long-term, there�s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I�m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I�m 48), and I think there�s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

UKCardGuy · #2 10-09-2025, 05:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASF123

It seems to me that a total market crash for vintage is pretty much impossible at this point in the near-to-medium term, absent a broader economic collapse. There are more than enough of us who would start buying way before prices dropped that significantly.

Long-term, there�s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I�m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I�m 48), and I think there�s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

Not saying that a crash is likely or not...but one of the characteristics of a bubble is the belief that it's different this time and that things can only go up.

calvindog · #3 10-09-2025, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Not saying that a crash is likely or not...but one of the characteristics of a bubble is the belief that it's different this time and that things can only go up.

Except when it comes to vintage sports cards it seems; someday never comes.

raulus · #4 10-09-2025, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calvindog

Except when it comes to vintage sports cards it seems; someday never comes.

Crashes have come and gone. The market has just come roaring back, although sometimes it took a few years to really get back to pre-crash levels.

Certainly there was a crash around 93 after the big runup from late 80s and early 90s, and then another around the Great Recession. I suppose we can debate just how far things fell each time and whether that really constitutes a full sized crash or just a minor pullback, but there were definite declines of substantial percentages.

ASF123 · #5 10-09-2025, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Not saying that a crash is likely or not...but one of the characteristics of a bubble is the belief that it's different this time and that things can only go up.

I�m not saying things can only go up. Just that a total crash seems highly unlikely - again, barring a broader economic collapse.

Seven · #6 10-09-2025, 12:32 PM

I empathize with a lot that's been said in this thread. I've become a little disillusioned with the Hobby over the course of this past year. Haven't even been active here on Net54 since February of this year.

Collecting is a life long journey, I've been told this and have repeated it to others. The unfortunate thing at the moment is that cardboard has become an asset class. Vintage, modern it doesn't matter people are rapidly buying up a storm, with no end in sight. On the bright side at least the cards were purchasing are of players who actually existed and are noteworthy. I truly feel bad for the collectors of Pokemon cards and the likes, with how wild and crazy that market has become.

Up is down, left is right in our Hobby nowadays. We're certainly in some turbulent economic times; Gold has hit 4000 an ounce. I don't know if their will be a proverbial crash in what we collect or even the economy. All I know is that as a 30-something whose barely making over six figures, I cannot collect the cards I want at the moment. It's either save for a house or buy cardboard. And as much as I want to do the second one, I cannot live in a house made out of Babe Ruths and Mickey Mantles

Brent G. · #7 10-09-2025, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASF123

It seems to me that a total market crash for vintage is pretty much impossible at this point in the near-to-medium term, absent a broader economic collapse. There are more than enough of us who would start buying way before prices dropped that significantly.

Long-term, there�s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I�m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I�m 48), and I think there�s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

While perhaps the numbers will drop, there�ll always be new blood joining the vintage hunt. As long as there are nostalgic men 40+ with some money and an appreciation for history, they�ll be there. I got back into the hobby to collect signed cards from my youth in the �80s, and a year later was all-in on pre-war. This site is full of those people.

toledo_mudhen · #8 10-10-2025, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASF123

Long-term, there�s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I�m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I�m 48), and I think there�s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

I'm your Huckleberry - 68 Years old and have been collecting for easily over 35 years.

I also think there are more guys out there in my age group than you might think -

JollyElm · #9 10-10-2025, 03:47 PM

Every time I see the thread title, my blue-eyed soul, two-part harmony brain immediately begins singing...

hallandoatesoutoftouch.jpg

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