Did I steal this?

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Posted By: Scott M

Let me preface this with the fact that it doesn't look like I'm getting a flight into NY for at least two days - so I've got nothing better to do with my time.
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Was $7 unrealistic? Well for that auction on that day it was not the winning bid. But that doesn't make it an unrealistic bid.

Cards are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them They have intrinsic value only. Card prices of vintage cards have generally gone up since the early 80's but that doesn't mean that it will continue. Baseball's popularity is decreasing (and I assume a strong correlation between bb fans and the number of vintage collectors), and lets face it the majority of the best and largest collections of vintage cards are in the hands of older gentlemen. Unless their wives or sons/daughters decide to keep the collections the cards will hit the market at their time of death. Those two factors mean that over time the supply/demand curve will move in a different direction.

Stamps took off in the 70's, especially the earlier issues. Part of it was from collectors and part of it was spurred by investors (the stock market in the 70's was bad - sounds kind of familar). There were issues that you couldn't touch for less than a grand a stamp that within 5 years could be had for $50-150 a stamp. I remember UN stamps going from $750 for the inagural sheet to about $60 in the course of 3-4 years. Will cards do something similar? I don't think so, but investors will eventually get out and move to other areas just like they did in stamps. When they do prices will drop as supply has increased.

Now did I expect to win on a bid of $7 - probably not, but I bid what I was willing to pay for the card. A demand curve is made up of not just the people willing to pay market price (and above), but also of those who are shut out of the economic transaction due to the amount of demand at a higher price and the amount of supply available - in this auction there was only one available. What often gives weight to the perceived worth of a card is that for a given vintage card, there is usually NO card available to the collector. When the number of cards available becomes one then the collector thinks that this is his/her chance. The supply may be far greater, but for that particular time period the supply is greatly limited - thus Only time will tell if the same card can be had for $7 - the day of the auction it couldn't. Just because something is a "market" price doesn't make it my price. For a collector like myself there is always tomorrow and a greater chance of a transaction being completed at "my" price.

So I believe it was a realistic bid - its just that 4 or 5 other people placed themselves higher on the demand curve - coupled with the fact that the supply available was one - that left me without a card.

Regards