I give up on grading

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Posted By: T206Collector

Here you go -- a GAI 2 of Clark Griffith for $115.00 as a Buy It Now. Looks Nearmint, or so the seller says. But careful of that back damage...

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-T206-Clark-Griffith-Portrate-GAI-2-Looks-Like-NM_W0QQitemZ5229415520QQcategoryZ106178QQrdZ1QQcmd ZViewItem

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Posted By: DJ

A HUGE pet peeve is when a seller places a dishonest value on a card.

The same seller as above has a: 1909 T206 Mordecai Brown GAI Graded BV $500. He says "BV$500".

Too bad it's a GAI2 and worth about...$60-70.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-T206-Mordecai-Brown-GAI-Graded-BV-500_W0QQitemZ5229410772QQcategoryZ106178QQssPageNa meZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

DJ

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Posted By: dan mckee

You all have very valid points and I do understand where you are coming from. I appreciate the opportunity to discuss this subject with all of you. Thanks again for a super discussion and happy collecting no matter how you collect. Dan.

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Posted By: Jerry Spillman

I had many cards graded by SGC and was satisfied with a few of exceptions.

One of the exceptions was the grade given on the T206 Cobb that is the last card below on the right. The explained reason given for the low grade was due to an indentation above the "nt" in Piedmont on the back of the card.

When I later examined the card with a magnifying glass I could only find normal wear in that area.

For comparison I am showing a few other cards that I found that were award a of grade 40 by SGC.

Consistent grading?

http://home.tampabay.rr.com/jspillman/sgc.htm

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Posted By: Anonymous

Jay,
In the scan it appears as if there is actucal tape remnance on the card which would justify the grade. Is the tape still on the card?

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Posted By: Scott Elkins

It seems all three of the major grading companies are tough on Cobb cards. I had a nice VG T206 Lenox Cobb Bat Off Shoulder graded a "1" by PSA (later cracked it out and traded it to Lipset, who sold it as VG in his auction).

Last year, I had an SGC 20 E98 Cobb I thought was a SOLID GD and might get a 2.5 from GAI. I sent it in with several other cards to GAI. GAI graded it a 1.5 and the rest of the cards graded EXACTLY what I thought they would grade (Tbob has this Red E98 now - you can ask him - much nicer than "Fair").

The one good point is that if you are buying Cobb cards, you can almost rest assured (unless a major auction house sent them to PSA for grading) that you are getting a nice card for the grade.

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Posted By: Josh K.

Jerry,

I agree with you 100% - all the other cards are 40s in my opinion. The last cobb should easily be a 50. I would seriously consider breaking it out and resubmitting it.

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Posted By: barry arnold

i'm with you on this Jay.
at least you know how great the cards look---and that's what matters
most ultimately.

all the best

Barry

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Posted By: jay behrens

Mike, it goes down into the red about 1/8". It is no where near as noticable as in the scan. There is no tape left there, just residue. This card comes from a collection that I am working on buying that has this same residue on the back. It looks more like the residue from a stamp hinge than a piece of tape.
t206col, you don't have to worry about ever buying a card from graded Ex/NM or any other grade. This becuase I do not state grades of cards I sell. I provide large, hi-res scans with my auctions and note any flaws the card might have that doesn't appear on the scan.

The thing that is most disconcerting about the grade of Manion card is that when I putting together my N2 set, I submitted a card with glue on the back that looked like grill marks to see what grade it would get even though the corners were mint and had no creases. This card came back a 40. I got to see Andy Baran's n162 Ewing that has the same glue marks on the back and it also got a 40. Did this card get a 20 becuase it's on the front? I've looked at this card again and I cannot find any hidden flaws.

The big question with Clark is, SGC says a card with this centering can get no higher grade than 84. Does this mean that they start 84 and then start deducting from there? If so, that is fine. This means the card would have graded 86 with normal centering if you start from 98 and work down or 88 if you start at 100.

The only problem with deducting grades starting at 84 is that grade drops are much more drastic starting at 84 than 100 or 98. Starting at 100, a card dropping 4 grades goes from Pristine (their term) to NM/Mint. Starting at 84, you go from NM to VG. If this is how they are doing it, and seems to make sense, then this very flawed since the speration of grades after NM is huge and gets even worse the more you move down the scale.

SGC has 100 point scale, why not make use of it?

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: RC Mckenzie

I begrudgingly like sgc because the cards look better in their holders, if PRO comes up with a cooler holder, then i'll probably send my cards to them. GL all.

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Posted By: cmoking

If I bought that Clark sight unseen as a SGC 84, I would literally throw up the second I saw it. I don't buy cards sight unseen, just making a point. At best it should be a SGC 60 with that centering. I have no problems with SGC grading it a 50. If the corners are good, PSA may give it something like PSA 8MC or PSA 7MC. But if you wanted a NQ, I have no doubt it would be a PSA 5 or PSA 4.

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Posted By: Scott Forrest

I would bet it has a very, very tiny surface wrinkle, possibly on the back where it doesn't show well. I have had a couple of similar beautiful cards come back from SGC as vgex, and knew immediately that I had missed a very tiny wrinkle. These aren't creases, and aren't bends, but rather tiny folds that were created originally with the card and that sometimes can barely even be seen once the card is slabbed.

If there is no such wrinkle, then SGC missed one, but I doubt it.

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Posted By: T206Collector

The lower the grade, the more variance there will be in appearance between two cards graded equally. All SGC 100's of the same card will look the same. SGC 10's of the same card will be like snowflakes -- no two will look the same, as they will have lots of reasons for being graded poor, from a tack hole, to paper loss, to rat chews, to shredding, etc. So, it is not at all surprising that two cards graded SGC 40 will look different, or have been graded that way for a reason.

<<t206col, you don't have to worry about ever buying a card from graded Ex/NM or any other grade. This becuase I do not state grades of cards I sell. I provide large, hi-res scans with my auctions and note any flaws the card might have that doesn't appear on the scan.>>

The point was not that you would assign a grade, but that your description of the card would omit certain flaws that you yourself either did not see or did not consider a flaw.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

I just cannot understand those who dismiss the population of a card as a indicator of value. IMO, it has become the single most important indicator of value in mainstream pre-war and 1948-69 graded sportscards.
Simply put, price is a function of supply and demand. More collectors are getting their sportscards graded and indisputably more collectors are looking to put together high grade sets whether it is 1933 Goudey or 1957 Topps.
For example in 1962 Topps without question the most valuable card in high grade is Don Landrum which is a pop 1 in psa 8 or better.
In pre-war, pop 1 T206s in psa 8 have sold for over $5,000--how many nrmt-mt T206s are there that have not been graded? There are commparable examples in most other mainstream sets. As vintage collectors look to put together high grade sets in 8 or better, it seems to me that the demand for high end low pop cards will exceed the supply(and prices will go up). It has certainly worked out that way so far.
Thus, I feel the best investment you can make these days is low pop high end vintage graded cards.

\Dav

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Posted By: T206Collector

If the population numbers were an actual reflection of the number of those cards in that condition in the market, you would be right on. But those population numbers do not reflect that at all. Indeed, especially with pre-war, you would have to include all SGC and GAI cards along with the PSA cards, to start. And then you'd have to have some understanding of how many ungraded samples of those cards were out there. Since no one knows the answer to that, it's all a big guess. And the numbers do not even provide you with any accurate direction there.

All you have been seeing is people without an understanding of supply and demand thinking that if there are only two PSA 10 Nap Lajoie Throwing cards graded by PSA, then there must only be two Nap Lajoie Throwing cards in that condition in existence, when, in reality ... no one really knows. And plenty of people on this board have and will chime in that they have minty mint tobacco cards that they keep unslabbed -- and there are a lot of these collectors, perhaps more than the fools who still rely on PSA (as opposed to SGC or GAI) to grade their pre-war cards.

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Posted By: Marc S.

"Thus, I feel the best investment you can make these days is low pop high end vintage graded cards.

Dav"

Jim:

An interesting premise, for sure. I don't know if "investment" is what I would call it - although you [and others] have benefited from purchases made years ago that have subsequently been flipped to such collectors.

However, I think it would be highly remiss for a card investor to spend $5,000 on a Pop 1 PSA 8 T206 common today. A population increase will surely decrease value - and it is hard to suggest that such a card would be worth significantly more anytime soon. Realistically - there are only three or four collectors I think who pay those amounts for a T-206 card. For that sort of money, I think a nice Cobb or otherwise might be a better investment.

With low population commons - one only needs to look at certain 1952 Topps PSA 8 cards [Del Crandall, etc.] to see how precipitous the drop in 'value' can be when populations rise.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

T206 Collector,

I agree that SGC and GAI pops should be combined with PSA.

I don't agree with the following:

1)I do not think there is much high grade pre-war material that has not been graded. By high grade I mean nrmt-mt or better. I have found that most collectors who think they have nrmt-mt cards or sets don't--at least by the standards of the Big 3 grading companies.

2)To the extent that there is more than I am estimating, the sample size is large enough for most of the popular pre war sets(and all of the popular post-war sets) that the distribution of newly graded 8s and better is likely to be similar to the distribution of those already graded. Thus, the cards that are condition rarities today are likely to be the condition rarities tomorrow.

Regardless, the market is telling us that pop is the key driver of pricing in vintage graded sports cards.

Dav

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Posted By: brian p

People who believe in the accuracy of vintage population reports probably haven't been in the vintage hobby for long. Collecting vintage cards didn't just spring up with the advent of grading companies; trust me, there are plenty of collectors out there who have never used a grading company, who gave up on the hobby years ago, etc. Also sometimes on this board I think there is a tendency to believe that we board contributors are the only collectors who are interested in these cards, while there are countless lurkers and plenty of people who have never heard of this board. I am a low grade collector, never used a grading company, but after over twenty years of collecting damn if I don't got a handful of cards that would top the grading charts. Do I plan on getting them graded? No. Maybe when it comes time to sell 30-40 years down the road, but until then they and my other cards stay free of any population reports. I think population charts will only be closer to an accurate indication of condition availabilty of a particular card in about that time frame, when cards from long time collectors have filtered through the system, and then at this time sadly the real condition rarity will be the vintage card that is not suffocating between slabs of plastic.

Brian

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Posted By: T206Collector

<<I do not think there is much high grade pre-war material that has not been graded.>>

Many would disagree, and I am sure will make their voices known below.

<<To the extent that there is more than I am estimating, the sample size is large enough for most of the popular pre war sets(and all of the popular post-war sets) that the distribution of newly graded 8s and better is likely to be similar to the distribution of those already graded.>>

The sample sizes you were talking about were 1 of 1's or 1 of 2's or 1 of 8's. That's not a very large sample size. You're likely talking about the sample size of, e.g., all Lajoies that have been graded. And I just do not think the verdict is out yet. You're looking at the exit polls to see who is going to win the election. I'm saying there are way too many that are too close to call.

<<the cards that are condition rarities today are likely to be the condition rarities tomorrow.>>

Again, who knows.

But I don't dabble in PSA 8 or higher T206 cards, because I believe, notwithstanding what PSA or SGC or GAI think, that most of those cards have been altered in some way. Call me a skeptic, but I'll take light fuzz on my corners any day over the sharp in my pre-war collection. Plus, it's easier on the wallet!

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Marc,

Yes its true I have flipped low pop T206 psa 8s recently for 15-20X what I bought them for a frew years ago but since I am not trying to complete that set in 8 or better, I wanted to use the funds to completeb the 33 Goudey Sports Kings set in psa 8.

Anyway, I think you will always see volatility in pricing but there is a huge gap that has opened up in literally every set I collect in the value of commons based on their population. I think that will continue and even widen.

Yes, Del Crandall's 1952 Topps cards in psa 8 are down from the peak as are Wehmeier's but they skyrocketed when Marshall and Charlie just had to complete their sets. If you look at the most recent sales, those cards are back on the rise....as are the cards of most other low pop 52 Topps cards.

Jim

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Posted By: Josh K.

Jim,

One other thing about the pop reports that makes them suspect is the constant crossing of cards b/t grading companies. I take all my psa's and cross them to sgc - does psa subtract from their pop report when I do this? Of course not. If I then sell the card to someone who crosses it back to psa - you suddenly have an extra card in the same grade that doesnt really exist (of course that is assuming psa, or for that matter any grading company, is consistent enough to give the card the same grade twice)

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Posted By: Al Crisafulli

There is no question this is true.

Unfortunately, when you start getting into the lower grades, you start talking about things like "technical merit". In other words, there are a number of different things that can drop the grade of a card, despite the card having fantastic eye appeal. As we've all seen with the examples in this thread, a card can have dynamite centering, beautiful corners, and a very crisp image - but as soon as it has glue residue on the back, or the tiniest tear, or a small indent, or a small erasure mark, the grade drops.

The upshot of this for us as collectors, is it's entirely possible to get a gorgeous card for a low price, simply because of the number on the slab. I've got a number of cards like this in my collection, and I'm thrilled to have them.

However, I can definitely understand disagreeing with the grade. I've got a bunch of 1938 Goudeys that have graded PSA-2, that are some of the nicest-looking examples from that set that I've seen. I've got T206s that look gorgeous, but are sitting in low-grade holders. That's fine with me - I bought the cards for my own collection, they're mine, I'm keeping them, and so the number on the slab really doesn't matter as much to me.

-Al

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Posted By: JimCrandell

T206 Colllector,

Do you really think that "most psa 8 T206 cards have been altered? Thats quite a statement. You are saying that if you took the entire psa population of psa 8s that over half have been altered?

On the sample size issue, I am saying that if their were 1000 1933 Goudeys graded PSA 8 and a particular common had a pop of 3, that the sample size is big enough for the mainstream prewar sets that it is going to continue to be a low-pop card in the future. There is a reason at this point that certain cards are low pop and it isn't just by chance.

Could there be a lot of nrmt-mt cards lurking pre-war that will become psa 8s or SGC 88s and alter current value perceptions? Perhaps--but I doubt it.

Jim

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Posted By: steve k

Yes - the Manion most probably has a filled in pinhole. Certainly worth resubmitting, but would probably come back the same grade. Cards such as this are one good reason exactly why grading is needed.

I have stated this before, that when cards appear way undergraded, like this Manion, the reason should be listed in the description.

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Posted By: T206Collector

<<Could there be a lot of nrmt-mt cards lurking pre-war that will become psa 8s or SGC 88s and alter current value perceptions? Perhaps--but I doubt it.>>

Again, you may doubt it, but I have no basis to doubt it. In fact, evidence from this board (a pretty significant amount of information) suggests otherwise.

Let me share a couple of links with you:

This is my T206 set registry (with scans) on the SGC website.

http://www.sgccardregistry.com/index.asp?action=3&setcategory=1&setid=243&usetid=1015

And this is my T206 set registry (with scans) on the PSA website.
(As point of reference, compare my three Mathewsons on the SGC website and on PSA's website).

http://www.psacard.com/set_registry/display_cards.chtml?rsetid=35985&alltime=no&rank=32&tied=0&requesttimeout=9999

I do not own any of the PSA cases that holdered the cards on this link any more. I haven't in over 6 months. But right now, SGC and PSA would tell you that there are two sets of Mathewsons out there, when there are only one. And I am certainly not the only person that has done this.

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Posted By: T206Collector

I am not making a blanket statement about "most" "some" or "all" PSA 8's having been altered. But I view with suspicion every T206 card that grades higher than a 6. It's just my nature. It's a gut feeling. A skepticism. There have in the past been a zillion posts on the topic of whether the T206 Wagner PSA 8 (you know, Gretsky's old card) was trimmed. I have no knowledge independent or otherwise, just that there is a lot of suspicion over that card.

I have had PSA cards fail to cross over to SGC because of evidence of trimming. If it happens to me with PSA 5's, then it of course happens with the really sharp stuff.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

The point about the pops not being exact because of multiple submissions of the same card or because of submitting one company's holder to get in another is fair. However, most collectors are dealing with the pops as they are and act accordingly.

I too have had a number of altered cards come back to me--mainly from psa when I used to collect ungraded sets. I did not look at the cards I bought under magnification and bought them from some of the most reputable dealers in the hobby--also bought some from some dealers who are not so reputable.

Because of my experiences, I do see the grading companies as the "saviors" of the hobby--I know a large number of collectors who would not have continued in the hobby or gotten into it without the advent of reputable grading companies.

Jim

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Posted By: rob

One can have a very eye appealing VG-EX card with a light wrinkle on the back, clearly such a card should (and usually does) get a higher price on ebay than the usual rounded corner off centered graded VG-EX. I got a NrMt-Mt grade on a card which had a huge bubble of paper pulp in the middle of the card, which would had been a Mt condition card otherwise. Getting dropped 1 grade on a bigger flaw a light wrinkle, which can be 2-3 grade drop doesn't seem right. I don't have a solution, as changes in grading standards would probably bring more grading inconsistencies than what can be noticed now.

My experience with SGC has been rather bad, about a third of my submissions were a grade too low, and about a third of these undergrades were 2 grades too low. In those cases, I cracked the cards out of the holder, got more for them raw than the horrible SGC undergrades. SGC does not know their British issues, and that is reflected in their population reports.

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Posted By: Scott Forrest

It's actually worse than that - the industry standard is that a card with any type of wrinkle, regardless of how small, cannot be higher than "VGEX". That includes any pack-fress mint card with a tiny, tiny factory surface wrinkle on the back.

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Posted By: jay behrens

These cards are also perfect examples of why the slabbers need to send a report card along with the slab so that people can understand why the card got the grade it did. It wouldn't be that much more work and I'd be more than willing to pay a bit extra if they offered that service.

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: Patrick McHugh

Jay I feel your frustration. Been there many times. But i will continue to submit as overall i am very pleased. Jim Crandell bring's up a point that I agree with. There is not alot of pre-war ungraded out there that would grade 8 or higher. Many collectors of ungraded cards still grade their cards with old grading standards. Meaning that a card with an unseen surface wrinkle that appears mint is.This is not to say that graded or ungraded collecting is better as everyone has there own choices. In todays market I would buy graded over ungraded for investment or resale,but i do also have ungraded cards in my collection. Always remember the hardest cards to grade are the one's you own!

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Posted By: jay behrens

Those of you taht think there are not alot of high grade, ungraded cards out there obviously haven't been in the hobby that long. All you have to do is look at the Nagy collection. His is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to long time collections of long time collectors, most of which don't have their cards graded. It will probably be 25 years or more before you can get a true sense of what is truely rare in high grade and what isn't because these colelctions will remain ungraded until the person leaves the hobby or passes away.

As to old school grading, there is a huge difference between a micro flaw that can only be seen under magnification and a crease that breaks the surface of the card. These should not be treated the same.

Jay

My place is full of valuable, worthless junk.

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Posted By: Anonymous

I have been in the hobby for 25 years and have seen a lot.

We will see how these raw nrmt-mt collections grade out. My guess for truly vintage is a lot of 7s and less...and if raw cards were purchased from late 80s to late 90s, a fair amount of altered cards as well.

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Posted By: Scott Mosley

You might be surprised whats out there in peoples collections.

I have been collecting off and on for 30 years and just returned to the hobby after a long hiatus in the past year or so.

I'll give you my E-98 set which I just recently had graded as an example of whats still out there in peoples collections.

Yes, these cards are slabbed now but there are many others who do not and will not spend their money on a grading service and I can understand their viewpoint.

I ended up making a personal decision to have them graded not because I cared so much about the grades or increasing the possible sale value but because I felt the cards look good in the holders and would be better preserved in the slabs as opposed to top loaders or binder pages which I previously had them stored in.

I can't help but think that are plenty of other collectors out there with collections just as nice or nicer than mine. They just haven't come out of the woodwork yet and/or have no reason to get their cards graded.

Scott

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Posted By: Marc S.

Scott:

That is a PHENOMENAL E-98 set. Good stuff - thanks for sharing; I was literally drooling over some of those scans. I have never seen such a nice grouping of E98s.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Scott,

I am not familiar with the set but I am sure yours is a terrific set.

When I talk about high-grade and pops though I am talking about psa 8 or better or sgc 88 or better. I am also talking about mainstream sets.

Jim

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Posted By: Scott Mosley

There are a few SCG 88s and above in the set I just posted as an example.

I just posted it as an illustration that there are definitely still vintage cards out there in near mint condition which have not been slabbed (as I only recently had these done).

As far as it being mainstream, you'll have to tell me what sets qualify. I know E-98 is a pretty popular set among those of us that collect candy/caramel cards.

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Posted By: Brian

Thanks for sharing. I would consider cards such as this "high grade"

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Posted By: John

Jim;

If there are tough cards like E98 Vaughn’s in mint 9’s out there as Scott just showed us (lucky dog), why do you find it so hard to believe that there aren’t hundreds of 1950’s (or whatever mainstream) cards in the same perspective grade stashed away in collections that have yet to be or never will be graded?

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Posted By: T206Collector

...there is no way in hell I would buy that card unslabbed. I fully admit it does not look trimmed or altered in any way. SGC was obviously right on this one. But unslabbed, I would be very very very very nervous about that.

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Posted By: Marc S.

I daresay that some of its borders look larger than some other caramel cards I sometimes see graded by an across-the-street competitor. Refreshing!

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Posted By: JimCrandell

John,

Primarily it is the slow creep upward in pops of cards 8 or better. I think this will continue. Also I think that for the most popular pre-war sets as defined by number of graded cards 8 and better, that enough cards have been graded that for the most part cards that are low pop now will be low pop in the future.

Jim

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Posted By: cmoking

From what I can tell, in the past 12 month period, the 33 & 34 Goudey's, the PSA 8 pop has increased by about 0.5 per card. That's a healthy rate in my opinion. High enough that there will be high quality cards out for sale all the time...but low enough that it is still very difficult to find.

At that rate, after 10 years, the PSA 8 pops will increase by 5 for every card. Still very tough to get, still a rare condition...but attainable for new collectors. All good to me.

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Posted By: Wesley

Scott M, That is an incredible set of E98 cards. I don't think anyone is going to be able to come close to matching those grades.

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Posted By: Josh K.

I will just echo my admiration for scotts e98s - I seem to remember looking at those cards on your website before they were graded (unless someone else has an all green e98 set) and thinking it was an amazing collection of e98s.

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Posted By: WP

Scott amazing set glad to see it surrounded by black borders.

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Posted By: Julie

(because they appear to be just what I want), but always pop them out...so I never buy real high grades--it would be a waste of money!

I've been told that some of my raw cards would grade high--I'm sure a lot would not, but if you want to see a smaller, lesser collection of ungraded cards, check out my website at www.julievognar.com

Ben, who had always said he didn't give 2 hoots about graded cards, insisted on keeping two the board sent him IN THEIR GRADED HOLDERS. And I'm sure he has no intension of trading either (it's also very risky to send cards to Canada in graded holders, but he really wanted them that way!) a 40 and an 80...I posted the T207 Almeida recently.

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Posted By: WP

i agree with T206 collector that a large number of PSA 8 T206s are altered in one way or another. Anyone care to guess what pecentage of PSA 8 pre war cards would receive the same grade if cracked out and resubmitted back to PSA ? Will the hobby ever see an extensive study like this performed.

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Posted By: T206Collector

As alluded to above, I sent in 40 PSA graded T206 cards to SGC for crossover treatment. Most of these were 4's, 5's and 6's and a little over half were Hall of Famers. Of the 40, they would not grade 10 as same grade or higher, and they would not grade 1 as evidence of trimming. That card was a PSA 5. Was it really trimmed? Who knows. PSA said no, SGC said yes. But 1 out of 40 isn't too bad. It's just not great, either.

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Posted By: Scott Mosley

Thanks Josh and others for the compliments on the set (yes thats the same ungraded set you saw on my website).

Posting it was just an attempt to show that there is still likely a fair amount of high grade vintage material out there yet to be graded or in the hands of collectors that would NEVER have it graded period.

Scott