Ohtani CARDS are Mostly UNDERVALUED

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by SyrNy1960

Great response. BigfootIsReal could learn a thing or two from you.

based on 100 replies...maybe it was CORRECT location... LOL

[raulus]

Originally Posted by jboosted92

i think just his base rookies, ungraded or PSA9 or below*

So what are his ungraded base rookies selling for these days? And what do you think they’re worth? Not being an Ohtani collector, I’m not familiar with the details here. I’m guessing that you think his PSA 10 rookies are not undervalued?

If you really think they’re undervalued, the obvious answer is to start buying and keep buying until you drive up the price to what you think they are worth.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by raulus

So what are his ungraded base rookies selling for these days? And what do you think they’re worth? Not being an Ohtani collector, I’m not familiar with the details here. I’m guessing that you think his PSA 10 rookies are not undervalued?

If you really think they’re undervalued, the obvious answer is to start buying and keep buying until you drive up the price to what you think they are worth.

I would be very hesitant to buy anything Ohtani. The guy is objectively the best or second best player in baseball but will apparently have an odd amount of detractors.

[doug.goodman]

It's been awhile since there was a card in this thread, here are a few

[frankbmd]

I'm perfectly willing to concede the 20th century to Ruth, but so far I think Ohtani will be hard to beat in the 21st century. Comparing today's game with 1924 is more difficult than the most biased Ruthies and/or Ohtanies are willing to admit.

[packs]

I don’t think you’ll lose money buying Ohtani cards but I wouldn’t say he’s undervalued in the Ernie Banks sense.

I think you’d do well buying Aaron Judge too. It’s like watching an authentic Bonds up there.

[SyrNy1960]

Judge is freaking amazing! HR#50

[GasHouseGang]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

It's been awhile since there was a card in this thread, here are a few

I sure like that Pujols card you slipped in there!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by packs

I don’t think you’ll lose money buying Ohtani cards but I wouldn’t say he’s undervalued in the Ernie Banks sense.

I think you’d do well buying Aaron Judge too. It’s like watching an authentic Bonds up there.

There's a pretty wide gap between what Judge is doing and what Bonds did.

[packs]

I agree. Judge is an authentic player. His production is real.

[SyrNy1960]

Originally Posted by packs

I agree. Judge is an authentic player. His production is real.

Judge is a Beast!

[1952boyntoncollector]

40 steals now is like 25 in the past? Ohtani amazing player but no way its the same 40 steals now than it was in the past....pitchers could hold ball for 15 secs and throw to first, bases are bigger... etc.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

40 steals now is like 25 in the past? Ohtani amazing player but no way its the same 40 steals now than it was in the past....pitchers could hold ball for 15 secs and throw to first, bases are bigger... etc.

I was wondering the same thing. But then I thought that it is quite possible that SB attempts are down significantly from the prime Rickey Henderson years, given that advanced analytics have taken over many aspects of the game. And those analytics have seemingly devalued the stolen base. So you've got to be a much more sure-footed base stealer before the manager will give you a green light to run today.

As an aside, one of the things that analytics has made less fun about baseball are reducing the frequency of things like stolen bases, hit-and-run plays, and suicide squeezes.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by bk400

I was wondering the same thing. But then I thought that it is quite possible that SB attempts are down significantly from the prime Rickey Henderson years, given that advanced analytics have taken over many aspects of the game. And those analytics have seemingly devalued the stolen base. So you've got to be a much more sure-footed base stealer before the manager will give you a green light to run today.

As an aside, one of the things that analytics has made less fun about baseball are reducing the frequency of things like stolen bases, hit-and-run plays, and suicide squeezes.

Agree that analytics has taken fun things about small ball, like bunts and stolen bases, from the game. Stolen bases are probably down also due to the fact that the pitcher is getting the ball to the plate faster than in the past and catcher can probably throw it a bit faster to second too.

[G1911]

He's probably the most recognizable name of any active baseball player in the world, is considered the best player the last few years by anyone who isn't a Yankees fan, outsells pretty much every other veteran player and the player he is most often compared to is the one and only Babe Ruth. How can he possibly be undervalued? He doesn't need to get more pumped up hype to make money off his cards.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Carter08

I would be very hesitant to buy anything Ohtani. The guy is objectively the best or second best player in baseball but will apparently have an odd amount of detractors.

This is definitely an issue, I don’t understand it personally but it is an obvious situation. The guy could turn water to wine and a bunch would jump his case for something.

I think it has a lot to do with language barrier and him not being a common public figure out there and doing talk shows and such. The same was common with Miguel Cabrera in his prime. He really had little interest in learning English and he didn’t care to deal with the public off the field. Judge has bit of that “all-American kid” aura and like Jeter he will get fans just for that.

[packs]

I've heard that argument made before but when I think of Jeter I mostly think of a stone. The guy didn't say a lot, didn't reveal a lot about himself, and wasn't really out there bringing attention to himself either.

Trout doesn't put himself out there either. I don't think it has anything to do with language. It's personality.

[brad31]

Agree Ohtani will be hard to beat as the best player in the 21st Century if he stays healthy as a hitter. If he doesn’t pitch there is no reason to think he stays at DH. He is a phenomenal athlete and could easily learn to play a position once he is allowed to throw again.

I think he pitches again. If he has say 5 more seasons as a pitcher and hitter and pitches like he did before - his value is so far above the next guy you simply cannot compare. We are witnessing an all-timer and really should enjoy it as long as we can. Unlikely we live to see another player like him.

[Centauri]

Some crusty old heads who don’t want their guy’s unique place taken away. But if you are not making an effort to watch Ohtani play, you are missing out. He is elite at pitching and hitting, and there only been one other player with that ability in MLB history. He is not dabbling into pitching, it’s not a circus sideshow. He is the real deal from both sides. Enjoy it while it lasts, don’t miss out.

[bk400]

Regardless of what Ohtani does going forward on the field, his most enduring legacy will likely be to change what Americans and Japanese think is possible with respect to baseball athletes. He's changed the paradigm.

I hope to see a lot of Ohtani wannabes come through the youth / HS / minor league ranks.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

40 steals now is like 25 in the past? Ohtani amazing player but no way its the same 40 steals now than it was in the past....pitchers could hold ball for 15 secs and throw to first, bases are bigger... etc.

Hard disagree about discounting Ohtani’s SB numbers like that.

When Canseco was the first to go 40-40 you had guys like Rickey, Tim Raines and Vince Coleman routinely stealing 90 to 100 bases a year or more. Canseco’s 40 wasn’t even good enough to crack the top 10 back then, while Ohtani is currently 2nd in MLB.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by bk400

Regardless of what Ohtani does going forward on the field, his most enduring legacy will likely be to change what Americans and Japanese think is possible with respect to baseball athletes. He's changed the paradigm.

I hope to see a lot of Ohtani wannabes come through the youth / HS / minor league ranks.

Keep an eye out for Roki Sasaki as the next big thing coming from Japan. Who knows what will happen but he has been something else for his age.

[Exhibitman]

One further bit of statistical perspective: Only three players (minimum 500 plate appearances) have finished a season with an OPS+ above 230: Barry Bonds (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004), Babe Ruth (1920, 1921 and 1923) and Ted Williams (1941 and 1957). Ohtani currently sits at 175.

Oh, and Greg is right. on both points: "[1] He's probably the most recognizable name of any active baseball player in the world, is considered the best player the last few years by anyone who isn't a Yankees fan, outsells pretty much every other veteran player and the player he is most often compared to is the one and only Babe Ruth. How can he possibly be undervalued? [2] He doesn't need to get more pumped up hype to make money off his cards."

[Lorewalker]

I am not into the modern stuff and therefore not an expert but his cards are not in short supply in any grade (and if they were it would be a manufactured rarity) and therefore not seeing that the cards are undervalued. I suppose as he continues to dominate in MLB, the prices will rise but not sure there is a single person alive who is not aware of his stature in baseball.

Personally I would still take a Williams, Aaron, Mays, etc rookie over an Ohtani.

[molenick]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

One further bit of statistical perspective: Only three players (minimum 500 plate appearances) have finished a season with an OPS+ above 230: Barry Bonds (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004), Babe Ruth (1920, 1921 and 1923) and Ted Williams (1941 and 1957). Ohtani currently sits at 175. "

Coincidentally, Judge's OPS+ was 230 before the start of today's game. I can't comment on card prices or quality of autographs, but I am glad to be able to witness two amazing seasons taking place in the same year.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Ohtani is amazing but before anyone starts comparing him to Ruth or waxes too poetic about his place in the pantheon, keep in mind his batting WAR is 26 and his pitching WAR is 15 for a total of 41.

Judge's WAR, just hitting, is over 50.

Deep breath. He has a long ways to go yet.

[bk400]

Well, I'm not convinced that aggregating Ohtani's hitting and pitching WAR to date is the best way to evaluate his place in modern baseball history.

Ohtani is analogous to a track and field athlete who wins the gold medal in both the 100 meter dash and the javelin in the 2028 Olympics. You only have to do that once to be in the Olympic pantheon.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by packs

I agree. Judge is an authentic player. His production is real.

There's also a pretty wide gap between what Bonds did before he every even started taking steroids and what Judge is doing now.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Ohtani is amazing but before anyone starts comparing him to Ruth or waxes too poetic about his place in the pantheon, keep in mind his batting WAR is 26 and his pitching WAR is 15 for a total of 41.

Judge's WAR, just hitting, is over 50.

Deep breath. He has a long ways to go yet.

Ohtanis value to a franchise is worth more than the sum of the parts.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Snowman

There's also a pretty wide gap between what Bonds did before he every even started taking steroids and what Judge is doing now.

I agree. Judge is much better.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Ohtanis value to a franchise is worth more than the sum of the parts.

Why? Surely it isn't because he creates one extra roster spot. How much value does the last player on a team add?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

Well, I'm not convinced that aggregating Ohtani's hitting and pitching WAR to date is the best way to evaluate his place in modern baseball history.

Ohtani is analogous to a track and field athlete who wins the gold medal in both the 100 meter dash and the javelin in the 2028 Olympics. You only have to do that once to be in the Olympic pantheon.

I agree it's amazing, but isn't the ultimate question in baseball, what's his value?

[Beercan collector]

Disclaimer: I am not interested no back-and-forth cause I not that smart ,
But off the field there’s jersey sales , ticket sales , television viewership , luxury boxes etc .
.. Admittedly I don’t watch Dodgers games because of Ohtani I just to see Mike Schildt and the Padres beat them

[packs]

Ohtani is the largest presence in the two largest baseball markets in the world. I don't see how anyone could question why it's valuable for a franchise to have that player on their team.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Ohtani is the largest presence in the two largest baseball markets in the world. I don't see how anyone could question why it's valuable for a franchise to have that player on their team.

Sure, but franchise economics and baseball are two different things and I thought we were discussing baseball.

[packs]

I thought that what's you meant by his value. He's about to win his third MVP. I didn't think his value on the field was in question.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I thought that what's you meant by his value. He's about to win his third MVP. I didn't think his value on the field was in question.

It's not at all in question. The issue is how great is that value in overall context. People speak of him as though he's possibly the best player ever. With a combined 41 WAR, that seems way premature to me.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's not at all in question. The issue is how great is that value in overall context. People speak of him as though he's possibly the best player ever. With a combined 41 WAR, that seems way premature to me.

We always need they hype. It is what drives almost everything in life and absolutely everything in our hobby and baseball in general. Nobody ever lives up to the hype and Mike Trout is about over so they had to move on.

[packs]

The list of three time MVPs is small and aside from Trout, who is active, and Bonds and Arod who had their own issues we're familiar with, the rest of the list were first ballot HOFers. Good company to be in.

I agree he's unlikely to hit major milestones like 500 homers or 3,000 hits, or 300 wins / 5,000 strike outs, but I think most modern pitchers will also struggle to reach those milestones and most modern hitters won't win three MVPs.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by packs

The list of three time MVPs is small and aside from Trout, who is active, and Bonds and Arod who had their own issues we're familiar with, the rest of the list were first ballot HOFers. Good company to be in.

I agree he's unlikely to hit major milestones like 500 homers or 3,000 hits, or 300 wins / 5,000 strike outs, but I think most modern pitchers will also struggle to reach those milestones and most modern hitters won't win three MVPs.

He’s about to win his third MVP and he’s just entering his prime. He’s poised to be at least a 45-45 player during the year he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Oh and he’s an ace pitcher and the best two way player since Babe Ruth. Yes, he’s one of the greatest players in the past 50 years.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by calvindog

He’s about to win his third MVP and he’s just entering his prime. He’s poised to be at least a 45-45 player during the year he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Oh and he’s an ace pitcher and the best two way player since Babe Ruth. Yes, he’s one of the greatest players in the past 50 years.

Agree

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by calvindog

He’s about to win his third MVP and he’s just entering his prime. He’s poised to be at least a 45-45 player during the year he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Oh and he’s an ace pitcher and the best two way player since Babe Ruth. Yes, he’s one of the greatest players in the past 50 years.

I would argue he's in the middle of his prime (28 - 32 for most baseball players) otherwise I would agree.

[bk400]

When it comes to the Dodgers, I'm more of a box score follower, but I couldn't help but see the footage from the 10-hour wait to get into Dodger Stadium for...the bobblehead day featuring Ohtani...and his puppy? Who "threw" out the first pitch. With Ohtani as the catcher.

Can you imagine Nolan Ryan out there on the mound with a puppy? Or Ichiro?

Ohtani is like the dorkiest dude, but people absolutely love him. Maybe it's because he's so dorky that they love him. He's like the anti-celebrity sportsman.

And, to add to the dork factor, it seems like he's also a card collector -- perhaps from his NPB days. (Which suggests he's a collector of Japanese cards.)

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ard-deal-topps

[bk400]

https://www.ebay.com/itm/40514044786...mis&media=COPY

Sharing with no additional commentary.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by bk400

https://www.ebay.com/itm/40514044786...mis&media=COPY

Sharing with no additional commentary.

I'll add some commentary:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/2024-TOPPS-....m43663.l10137

[calvindog]

That's some expensive orange on the bottom.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by calvindog

That's some expensive orange on the bottom.

Yes, no doubt. Topps Now cards were kind of cool -- and some of them still have great photos and commemorate noteworthy events -- but let's just say I've become quite cynical about the vast majority of them.

[Wynn0013]

There are a lot of base cards printed, but you should do OK from a population standpoint if you stick with rookie auto's, early topps golds and blacks for low number, and topps (super short prints) or opening day (short print) photo variations.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I generally like the Topps Heritage cards. I thought this Ohtani, numbered to "only" 999, was fairly inexpensive but then again I don't know the market.

[Wynn0013]

Cool card Peter! Absolutely, there are still good options.