Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Jeff,

If you are right(and you may be)that the large majority of cards won't sell then that is a market defining event. I was also not aware that there may be player collectors competing for T206 psa 8 commons. I do agree with you, however, that the market is thin and prices can vary considerably. Not often do this many cards of a vintage set come up for sale with a number of pops available.

I also think that Steve's sales of 53 Bowman Black & White and 49 Leaf are very important for defining value and it will also be interesting to see what happens with his 39 Play Ball and 34-36 Batter-Up sets.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

wow, i missed alot in the last 16 hours...

Jim- thanks for the compliment, but there are many more T206 collectors on here who could easily be refered to as the "king of T206"- ted, brian w., scot r., hank/scott levy, etc.

Marc- i agree with you on this: "Those auctions were all started at modest amounts, and the market was allowed to decide the true value of these cards, as opposed to an arbitrary opening bid."

BUT...

...this may shock you, i would easily take a PSA 8 1/1 (none higher) over a PSA 6 or 7 cobb, anyday, call me crazy...it has nothing to do with flipping it to the big set reg guys, it simply would be cool owning the one and only best example of a card on the planet. a cobb psa 6? there are tons of them, so many it's ridiculous. wouldn't feel special enough for me.

just my 3 cents (as barry says).

MS

edited to say, a green cobb psa 7 would be the exception.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

As a follow up, I think the higher pop 8s for sale with a starting bid of $995 present a more realistic view as to where the market is these days -- and I think those cards will all sell.

As an aside, how about the price on that perfect Green Cobb PSA 7 that went for like 34K -- double the price of a PSA 7 Green Cobb in the spring REA auction? I was willing to spend up to 22K or so on that card and thought I'd easily get it. Boy, was I wrong! Who won that card?

Edited to add: I understand Steve's pricing system for the low pop 8s -- it's the consignor's choice to do what he wants with his cards -- but damn, I would love to see how those cards would do if the auction started at 1 cent...

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Marc,

I would also agree with Michael. I would much rather have a pop 1 psa 8 common than a cobb 6 or 7 from the set. If I had a cobb psa 6 or 7 I would only hold it until I could upgrade.

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Posted By: Rich Klein

In this case, since the auctioneer is a major player in the buisness and is even an advertiser on this board; I suspect that this is not an auction that would have gone hidden.

The outing term I suspect runs more towards auctions placed in the wrong areas.

Rich

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Posted By: Frank Evanov

A PSA 8 of a common player over a slightly lesser graded card of a baseball legend like Cobb, Matty or CY?? You have to be joking. The PSA 8 only has value to a Registry addict. Give me the HOFer any day. Would you rather have a pre-owned Mercedes, not new, but in nice condition or a brand new "mint" KIA or Yugo???

Frank

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Frank,

It all depends on your point of view--I look at a card that is graded 6 or less that I own and say to myself-yuck--I have to get rid of that card, I can't stand to look at it while I marvel at the 8s and 9s. If somehow I am given some 6s or less in a trade for my own records I pretend I don't even have the card.

What percent of the cards that you own Frand are 8s and 9s?

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- just out of curiosity, why do you find a 6 so distasteful? It's far from mangled, generally a crease free card with nice corners. Maybe not your first choice, but hardly something to feel unhappy about owning.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

To each is own--either centering isn't great or corners are rounded or has surface wear, loss of original gloss, scratches or some combination of these things. If I have got them I am looking to upgrade them

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Posted By: jay behrens

I imagine Jim would be in the bathroom throwing up if he ever saw my collection

Jay

The richest person is not the one who has the most, but the one who needs the least.

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Posted By: Joann

Another question out of curiosity for Jim - related to the one Barry just asked, and I've been wondering. Why 8? Why not have the cut off be at 7, or 9?

I reside in the VG to EX neighborhoods in card collecting, so I can kind of tell the visual difference between cards in those ranges. I don't see cards in person that are above a 5 or 6, and from scans I honestly can't tell a 9 from a 7.

So is there something about 8's visually that causes you to pick that as your cut off? Or, put another way, what do you see when you see a 7? A 9?

Thanks,

J

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Posted By: barrysloate

Joann- 8 for some reason is a natural cutoff.

The registry collectors prefer 8 and above. The rest of the rabble collect 7 and below.

With vintage cards 5 seems to be a cutoff. Candy cards up to a 4 are valuable but can be found. Once you hit 5 and above you are in more exclusive company.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Joann,

I like 9s better than 8s and 10s better than 9s. In fact with many sets I try to do them in 9 or even 10. For sets 1959 and earlier, its just too expensive. I cannot reach my goal of 100 sets in psa 8 or better by spending my budget on 9s.

As for 7s I will buy them. I was down to 15 cards in 1955 Topps and was sick of missing all the 8s because of price so I just bit the bullet and bought the 7s with the idea that I would upgrade to 8s later on. Sitting just behind Jeff in 12th place or so in the registry I think.

I think I can tell difference between 7s and 8s most of the time and between 9s and 8s most of time. 10s and 9s not so sure. 7s are ok--like kissing your sister--under that Jay is right--I would throw up in his bathroom.

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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

Better not show your 4BH Kelly anymore as we don't want people to start throwing up.

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Posted By: Dave F

Hey Jim...not a t206 here, but this was my best conditioned pickup of the week...(maybe it is somewhat like Jay's as well, don't know)..would this really make you want to throw up?

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Dave,

Ugh!

All I can say is collect what makes you happy.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I think the acceptable grade really depends on the set. In my sets from the 50s, I can tell a significant difference between a 7 and 8. The difference between 8 and 9 (and 10) is often very subtle if anything at all. In sets from the 50s, I prefer 8s and up. But in E101, 102, 106, T216, etc. -- I'm happy with 4s and 5s (assuming I can even get them). And these 4s and 5s look as good to me as the 8s I have in newer sets.

As for Jim's and Michael's desire to own a common PSA 8 in pop 1 compared to a Cobb 6, I collected along those lines for years. The thought was that condition rarity was great for two reasons: a) the cards would be more valuable due to their scarcity; and b) a T206 in PSA 8 is a damn fine looking card no matter who is featured in the slab. The appearance is how the card probably looked coming out of the pack. My habits began to change, however, and I've unloaded many of the high grade 8s and 9s I have in favor of players I love. I have no doubt that this new collecting strategy will cost me money in the long run as the Registry guys will pay top dollar for rare high grade commons (there's no greater thrill than selling a 1958 Bennie Daniels PSA 8 for $3250 on ebay) as the cards I am collecting now are either (relatively) easily found or so obscure that no one but me would want them. But in the end, I'm happier opening up my boxes of cards and finding Cobbs, Chases, Mattys, Jacksons, McGraws, Browns etc. than Rube Manning PSA 9s. As has often been said on this site: collect what makes you happy and you'll be fine.

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Posted By: leon

Better yet....lets see this really low grade N690..it's only a 5.....yuck..

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Posted By: Dave F

Leon-
I'm disgusted.

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Posted By: Frank Evanov

Frank,

It all depends on your point of view--I look at a card that is graded 6 or less that I own and say to myself-yuck--I have to get rid of that card, I can't stand to look at it while I marvel at the 8s and 9s. If somehow I am given some 6s or less in a trade for my own records I pretend I don't even have the card.

What percent of the cards that you own Frand are 8s and 9s?

Jim, I have 74 T206 HOF cards. All are PSA 5 or 6, except for 1 PSA 7 [Chance]. Trust me, "yuck" is not a word that comes to mind when I look at them.

For post-War cards, I have mostly 8's and 9's. I was recently offered a post-War pop 1 PSA 10 of a HOF player for $10K. For that price, I could have 3 PSA 9 Mantles from the same set...I would take the Mick every time!

Frank

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Posted By: PAS

I have always thought the Gem Mint grade was a contrivance. I would challenge anyone who thinks they could tell the difference between a 9 and a 10 on a consistent basis outside the holder.

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Posted By: Marc S.

one of the last population two PSA 8 T206 cards sold for less than $3k. In fact, I can find multiple examples of PSA 8 population two T-206 cards selling for less than $3k, some as recently as within the last six months.

That these have been listed at a nearly 70% premium to the final realized price of other population two PSA 8 T-206 cards -- that reflects to me that these are not true "values". I think there is enough relevant market data to sort thorugh what has happened in the past to come up with a reasonable estimation for what low pop. high-grade T-206 commons are worth.

Yes -- there are a few isolated incidences of higher realized prices for some of the T-206 PSA 8 commons. Most of those are isolated to a) tougher backs, b) Memory Lane auctions or c) other miscellaneous factors.

There was even a minor leaguer T-206 PSA 8 Pop 2 common to sell in Goodwin's May auction that went for a scant $2,155-. What is the world coming to

Marc

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Damn, that JP at Memory Lane really knows how to market his auctions so much better than everyone else -- and gets prices that are up to double what the same card sold for the day before! I for one am impressed.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

frank-

you used the term "value"...i said, "it simply would be cool owning the one and only best example of a card on the planet"...has nothing to do with value for me...

jeff- i actually think i only have 1 or 2 PSA 8 T206's left (sorry to dissapoint you Jim), i transitioned last year to rarity, and sold all of my 8's & 9's...i have low-grade, mid-grade, and some high-grade rare backs...my favorite cards that i own: PSA 4 DRUM, PSA AUTH BL 460...

so i for one, am NOT disgusted by low-grade cards...

BUT, i will stick to my original statement, that i would take a PSA 8 1/1 (none higher) common over a PSA 6 cobb (excluding green cobb).

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Michael,
You're my buddy, but you are still crazy.... Take the Cobb and forget about the 1/1 Pop 8....Cobb is like gold, while the 1/1 might be 2,3 or 4 in a few years. Be well Brian

PS I know you are trying to become a back collector, but you haven't quite made it yet...


PS 2 I have 30-40 PSA/SGC T206 8'S, and I will be happy to trade for Cobb 5's or 6's anyday(psa&sgc).

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Posted By: DMcD

"I imagine Jim would be in the bathroom throwing up if he ever saw my collection."
Funny stuff, Big Jaybowski!

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Posted By: Brian

What a beater. Yuck! You should warn people before posting such garbage so that they might glance away.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Casey himself would roll over in his grave if he saw himself in that condition.

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Posted By: DMcD

Wouldn't want that.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

brian-

regarding the T206 PSA 8 1/1 vs. a cobb 6, it is just my personal preference. there are a ton of PSA 6 cobbs out there, but having a 1/1 PSA 8 (none higher), IMO, is unique, and very cool. even if that pop goes up to 2 or 3, etc, it is still a very crisp, beautiful card to own...just my opinion.

regarding the personal comment, i'm a bit confused, i actually gave you "props" above in a previous post...

we'll converse via email, not on the board.

best-
MS

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Michael,
I'm only picking on you.... Trying to lighten up the thread. Sorry you took it the wrong way. Talk to you soon. Be well Brian

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Posted By: MVSNYC

haha...

i totally took it the wrong way...i guess we all (excluding you) really do need to lighten-up. thanks...



speak soon.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

David,

Thts much better--please fix all before you post in the future.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

for whatever it's worth, a PSA 8 T206 fred burchell just sold on eBay for only $1186 (i put in a "low" feeler bid and was outbid)...

it was 1/12, none higher...so this might be some sort of current gauge...

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Michael,

Thats exactly where I would expect a pop 12 to sell--don't you agree?

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Posted By: skepticsfan

Is this the same Steven Novella of the skeptics guide to the universe podcast?

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Posted By: MVSNYC

jim- 8's have taken a nose-dive in the last 2 years...even high pop examples were selling for $2000-2500...the real low pops were in the startosphere...

i think $1186 is low.

last year 7's were selling in the $1000-1300 range...

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Posted By: Anonymous

Michael,

You are the man in T206s--you are unhdoubtedly correct--12 is a really high pop though for an 8--absent HOFers is that highest pop in the set?

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Posted By: Marc S.

As the six superprints from the T-206 set were all HOF'ers (Cobb, Mathewson, Chance, two Chase's and an Evers) and a significant portion of the next grouping of most common 350/460 T-206 cards are also comprised of HOF'ers.

You cannot look at populations in isolation without consideration of the distribution methodology of the T-206 set.

12 is about the highest pop. for a common card of a single pose variation -- although there are at least a dozen or more commons with PSA 8 pops of >10.

A Burchell PSA 8 sold in Goodwin less than 18 months ago for over $3,100 -- this latest example on Ebay was one of the softest PSA 8 prices of any common in recent memory.

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Posted By: T206Collector

One of the principal points in the PSA Pop Report debates that sometimes take place was made very efficiently when Brian said:

"Cobb is like gold, while the 1/1 might be 2,3 or 4 in a few years. . . . I have 30-40 PSA/SGC T206 8'S, and I will be happy to trade for Cobb 5's or 6's anyday(psa&sgc)."

And, you won't see me trading my SGC 60 Cobb for high a grade/low pop common any time soon.

Moreover, putting aside Brian's fundamental point about the potential for growing populations, again if PSA loses market share, or if cards are cracked a resubmitted, the numbers themselves do not mean what it is suggested they mean.

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Posted By: sagard

On topic:

http://tinyurl.com/2v9qsy


Two Pop 2s sold at the $5K. A single Pop 3 sold at $3K. Three Pop 4s at $2K. The Pop 5s almost sold through at $1.5K. Lots of action on the higher Pops.

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Posted By: JinCrandell

Well--34 of 52 cards I think sold--better than the skeptics view that less than half would receive bids.

Net net probably a bit less on the bidding than I thought so if it is a market defining event I think prices have come down a bit fron the feverish levels of a year agom Imagine collectors not willing to pay $10,000 for a pop 1 common?

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Posted By: barrysloate

I can imagine collectors not paying 10K for a pop 1 T206. It's just too much money for a common, even if it is the highest graded example. Maybe some semblance of restraint has finally arrived.

As far as prices being a down a little bit I've noticed that in other areas of the market, too. The really rare and special is still very strong, but the area of the market perceived as overpriced is starting to go through a correction.

(edited to add why is this thread so wide? It's a pain to read)

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Posted By: leon

I think the higher the cost of a high end common the thinner the market. Certainly it's mainly due to the registry where the higher prices have gone in the first place. This thread is wider because the auction link is very wide. If someone knows how to do a tiny url thing I can fix it...otherwise, that link is the reason. It stretches way over to the right of the field....regards

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Posted By: JinCrandell

Barry,

I agree--about time the low-to-mid grades started going down.

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Posted By: sagard

Sorry about the long url. I fixed it. I think the pricing stategy is right on target. The low pop stuff will sell for good money anytime. Nothing is hurt by fishing for a few weeks/months.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- you know you're right. Some mid-grade and low grade cards are starting to go down. I saw it in my last auction.

Isn't it great when we all agree so easily!

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Posted By: Chad

--Chad

(Just funning!)

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Posted By: MVSNYC

exactly as i predicted...

much action on the higher pops...and little to no action on the low pops...and the exact players i predicted as well.

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Posted By: Bobby Binder

Just the high pops sold...no low pops



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4689/27/07eBayStovall (Portrait)$1,225.00
4479/27/07eBaySmith (Frank, Chicago, F. Smith On Front)$1,495.00
4459/27/07eBaySlagle$1,184.00
4439/27/07eBaySheckard (No Glove Showing)$1,225.00
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4289/27/07eBaySchmidt (Throwing)$1,227.24
4159/27/07eBayRossman$1,569.00
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