Hobby Panic in 2009

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Posted By: Dave Hornish

....real EC comic, sister publication to MAD. The first issue got banned in Boston and it was downhill from there. The story is here if you are interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_(comic)

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Posted By: barrysloate

Thanks Dave.

Bruce- please do me a favor and don't say things like that on the board. It's really unnecessary. Thank you, and happy New Year.

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Posted By: David Atkatz

Still waiting to hear about your book(s), Bruce.

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Posted By: David Atkatz

Your silence speaks volumes.

(Pun intended.)

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Posted By: Sean C

When you go out and talk about your collection the way you do, others are going to comment about it in response. In this case, I'm choosing to comment about what will happen to your collection in the future when you are no longer around to enjoy it.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Me too. Unfortunately, the moratorium needs to start with the Group, which needs to stop posting in ways that make its members look like horses' patoots. Remember, regime change starts at home...

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: J Levine

As many of you know, more than a year ago, the government

predicted that the Dow would fall below 7500 and

that several major investment banks would go bankrupt.

Many of the government's posts reflect the government's strong belief that the Dorskind Group will face

a depression between 2009-2012. Baseball card prices, with some

notable exceptions are likely to fall- perhaps as much as 25%-35%

A number of auction houses will close because collectors will stop selling.

However, there is a strong possibility that a far more tragic scenario

will develop.

For argument sake, let the government assume the announced Dorskind Group investigation

into price manipulation and alteration of cards moves ahead rapidly and there

are formal Indictments.

Let's all assume the Dorskind Group decides to seize all the property of the auction

houses and or grading services that has been indicted.

What is the position of the consignor with regard to items seized by the Dorskind Group?

If the he or she has received an advance, do they have to return it?

How can he or she get his cards back?

Is there any insurance available that will protect collectors or consignors?

If and when this "perfect storm" occurs, how will impact the future of the

hobby?

The purpose of this post is not to argue the state of the economy and/or

how bad things are likely to get, but rather to raise the question of how

is the collector protected when and if an auction house



(a) Is indicted by the Dorskind Group and property is seized?

(b) Auction house closes its doors before an auction is completed

and said auction house has consignments from collectors.



Our hobby must prepare for a worse case scenario- who knows, our own

version of Bernie Madoff could be on the Board as we speak.



Best wishes for the New Year!

The Government

America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: steve

BRAVO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted By: Fred C

Holy cow JL, you're way ahead of me... I think I've got to be a keg behind you buddy... I'll read that post again in an hour after I've started to catch up to you...

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Posted By: davidcycleback

"The blood bath is coming. It's just around the corner."
-- Discharge

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Posted By: joe brennan

To change the tone of this thread slightly, We for two am looking forward to a great 2009. Our area has not be hit by the housing problems the rest of country has faced. The larger and local banks did not grant morgages to people that could not afford them and we see no one losing their houses because of it. Construction in our area is booming and the work force is in place. Although we did see our stocks tumble by 30%, we as arm pit collectors, but good investors never put more than 10% of our assets in one place or in one stock. Where we see a tumble in one area we have seen a rise in others.
We (as in the BEG ) think that this is the perfect time to place our money in stocks that are under valued and cards or other collectibles that will surely retain their value if times continue to be tough. We are in the midst of purchasing a major piece to add to our growing collection, but it will not be baseball hobby related. We feel that the best option is to find the best value for our dollar in any investment. If others continue to predict doom and gloom we will be happy to help in this situation by purchasing and keep the economy on an even keel. While others are selling we intend to buy heavily at prices that will make both the seller and the buyer happy. I will say that times will continue to be tough, but we are not heading for a depression. We will see a turn around by the 3rd quarter of 2009 and if everyone keeps their heads we shall pull out of it just fine. The panic is caused by emotion and emotion has no place in business or the market. The key is to buy low and sell high and emotion takes over and people panic and dump their assets at very low prices. We intent to look for the best stocks at this time and buy, buy, buy.
I hope eveyone that has the assets and disposible income looks at this time as a great opportunity to expand their wealth and collections.

We as the BEG wish everyone a very Happy New Year and we hope you all obtain the cards on your want lists.



In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

so where's the apocalypse?

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Posted By: Scott Daloisio

"As far as the economy goes....It sucks...will continue sucking for a lot of '09 and then hopefully will get better. Even though I didn't vote for Obama I do have confidence in him....best regards"

Agree 100% Leon. I did not vote for Obama either, but I back him. I think he will bring excitemeht and vitality to the nation. He does have a tough job ahead of him and it will take time. Hoepfully when he steps in later this month we will see start to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Like him or not, he is our president. I certainly hope everyone gives him a fair chance.

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Posted By: David McDonald

I heard that he pals around with terrorists.

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Posted By: Jason

David-

David: I usually stay out of these non-card threads but not this time. Count me as one more of the offended. An American named Jason gets to hear alot of ignorant commentary in one lifetime. Your aside about Obama's background ranks right up there. What the hell does his being ethnically mixed have to do with anything, especially terrorism. Have it any way you want. Maybe you are prejudiced, maybe not. I don't know. But, man, you are insensitive. Your subsequent comments, your wriggling logic, continue to offend. I really hope you are not so thick that you are unable to understand what I am trying to tell you (which is that your dumbass comment wasn't welcome).

Jason

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Posted By: Jason

I heard he isn't even American and he pals around with corrupt governors. At least that is what the spin machine tells me.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I heard he pals around with terrorists AND smokes cigarettes.

Ok, I admit it: I'm prejudiced and I just said those awful things in order to induce a race war. Damn.

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Posted By: Jason

LOL.......I am just ribbing Dave from the Ebay post the other day. If you read what I wrote I actually pasted and edited his own text. Kind of like the pot calling the kellte black. At any rate I am from IL and didn't even vote for Obama. I KNOW how corrupt that state is and the governor there is a real dousche, as are many of the politicians there. I live in MO now and only miss my family. Anyway.....only time will tell, but the state of our country is out of the hands of our president elect anyway. It's like the beginnings of a large avalanche and we are still at the top. I do support him, however, and hope that they can figure something out, but until the greed and corruption is dealt with, it will only get worse. As far as baseball cards, I really cannot see the prices plummeting. I think its actually a great time to buy with everyone "panic-stricken".

David MCD: Enjoy the post and don't take my comeback personally.

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Posted By: joe brennan

We predict that out next president will perform 150% better than anyone expects. We also think that if anything goes wrong in his administration it will look badly for a large % of the American population. Seeing this downside he will become a great leader. America needs a SMART man running the country. It will take a SMART man to turn the USA around. Look forward to an administration that is both respected and feared by the rest of the world.
Turning the economy and bringing our boys home will be a good start.
He is our President and he deserves a chance to make it work.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Good call on the market Bruce and another interesting post. The board would be a lot less interesting without your contributions. disregard the naysayers--many of whom never write anything of interest and keep up the posts.

Count me among those who hopes Obama fails miserably and socialism is thoroughly discredited as a way to run any country.

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Posted By: joe brennan

Nice one Jim. Obama fails miserably? Kind like you last joke of a president help your portfolio and your job situation. Hoping that Obama fails is hoping America fails. You got your wish with the mindless 80 IQ Bush. Now maybe Mexico is the next place you should reside if you hope America fails. Next time you go to push the respond button, just push delete.

Next time you have a thought, just let it go.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

joe,

Same advice to you--delete is a good choice.

Obama succeeds-America takes long turn to the left. You may like this but I don't. I think an activist government, high taxes, high spending and an increasing influence of the loony left is bad for the country.

Bush never stood up to the radical left and restrained government spending. He did do the right thing on taxes though and has done a great job fighting terrorism.

Happy New Year,

Jim

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Posted By: barrysloate

There goes Jim C. playing the socialism card again.

Hi Jim, hope you had a good holiday.

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Left or right if you are wishing for the American president to fail you are wishing for America to fail and you are not a good American.

Period.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

Same to you--just back from vacation. See some things don't change,. Bruce makes another good post, people obsess over his style and the liberals come out and praise Obama.

On the new news side, just got Joe Orlando's book in the mail and it certainly looks very impressive.

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Posted By: David Atkatz

The only "thought" Crandell has ever had, Joe, goes something like this:

"Think I'll resubmit those cards to PSA. Yeah. That's just what I'll do."

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Dan,



Not so--I want Obama to fail so America can succeed. America will never move back toward greatness led by the most liberal person in the Senate. The only route we have is Obama failing and repubs making major strides in the Senate in 2010 and winning the presidency in 2012.



Period and exclamation point.



Jim

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Posted By: JimCrandell

And the loony asst prof comes out again in 2009.

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

You're going to have to find a Wayback Machine if you think the Republicans need to win the presidency in 2008.

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Posted By: joe brennan

Bush never stood up to the radical left and restrained government spending. He did do the right thing on taxes though and has done a great job fighting terrorism.

Huh? What job did he do. Dropped a few bombs on Afganistan and let Bin Laden slip through his fingers while he went on a witch hunt for WMD's. All the while we are spending $10 Billion a month in a country we have no business being in and young Americans are dying everyday. He learned nothing from Vietnam.

No Jim, I didn't make the statement that you wanted our next President to fail, you did. Bush will go down in history among the worst of the worst President's ever and the party he represents is a joke, filled with corrupt politician only hoping to line their own pockets.

Whatever Obama does he cannot ever fail as badly as our last joke in office. The government will not change over night and your idea of government is not the plan for our next America. For such as intelligent man as you are you make some very offensive statements. I cannot believe you would back a party that effected you like this last party did. I will not make this a personal thread, but I do believe I am not alone in thinking that if wish America to fail you should delete your post and keep it to yourself. If you can add something constructive with your knowledge of money and finance, I'm all ears.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: David Atkatz

Jim, there are four glaring errors in your post above.

See if you can find them.

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Posted By: joe brennan

I got news for you Jim, I have voted Republican for 30 years. Only the last 2 elections did I see this writing on the wall. If only you would have seen the writing on the wall 4 years ago, you might have seen the fall that I predicted and changed you financial plan accordingly.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: Jason

Obama is NOT Muslim!.....He is Mormon.

Jason

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Posted By: Adam

Boy is it time to lock this thread and move on!

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Posted By: boxingcardman

I think that anyone who hopes the Obama administration fails should be ashamed of himself. If the incoming administration fails, we ALL fail. Wishing otherwise for the nation is disgraceful. Even after he stole the elections in 2000 and 2004 I never hoped that right-wing fascist scumbag would screw things up like this.



Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Sorry Joe--don't wish bad things for my country but will actively work to support causes that are against what the Socialist believes in.

Bush has done an excellent job fighting terrorism. Not one major attack on our soil since 9/11 and many foiled. This will be his legacy and one can only hope that Obama is as vigilant as Bush in fighting terrorism.

Joe, I did not see your post from four years ago or for that matter Bruces 1 year ago but since you are such great predictors of the future why don't you get togerther with him and make your predictions for 2009. I think you would make an interesting team.

Cheers,

Jim

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Posted By: Jason

Socialism would definitely be short term "fix" and ultimately the Kiss of Death. Hopefully Obama is smarter than what he seems and will avoid such destructive measures. Even though I didn't vote for him, I do support him and am willing to give him a chance. As for Bush, no doubt he did some positive things in protecting us here. I do not agree, however, 100% with all policies under his administration. If we want to pinpoint the disaster of the economy we need to look deeper in the Clinton administration, even though corruption on wall street was already moving forward earlier than that. If Bush would go down as one of the worst, then we must assume Clinton to be vying for the cellar. How did we get so bent on politics and religion anyway?


Jason

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Posted By: joe brennan

Jim, If you read all the post and not just a selected few you will see that I made a prediction of the upcoming year. I will cut and paste it again for you. I also said in the beginning of 2008 that the stock market was overpriced and we were heading to another downturn like that of the dot.com crash. I did not predict it to be this bad, but I did alter my portfolio to protect myself. I saw that my company stock was way over priced and diverified with the profits. We went from $65 a share to our current $40. Although I did lose on the current shares I own, I never paid more than $37 a share so in that aspect I never had the money, so I didn't lose it. the worth just decreased.
As far as you hoping America doesn't fail, I am glad to here it. If Bush's only legacy is we weren't attacked by a foreign country, he joins 40+ other President's with that distinction. Good job Duba. While he played with his tanks in Iraq, New Orleans sunk farther into the Gulf. How in our modern times does a President let 1000 Americans die in our own Country and then sit idle while nothing is being done in this country to help their plight? If you feel he has a legacy lets go to his Library.

The George W. Bush Presidential Library is now in the planning stages.

The Library will include:

The Hurricane Katrina Room, which is still under construction.

The Alberto Gonzales Room, where you won't be able to remember anything.

The Texas Air National Guard Room, where you don't even have to show up.

The Walter Reed Hospital Room, where they don't let you in.

The Guantanamo Bay Room, where they don't let you out.

The Weapons of Mass Destruction Room, which no one has been able to find.

The National Debt Room which is huge and has no ceiling.

The 'Tax Cut' Room with entry only to the wealthy

The 'Economy Room' which is in the toilet.

The Iraq War Room. After you complete your first tour, they make you go back for a second, third, fourth, and sometimes a fifth time.

The Dick Cheney Room, in the famous undisclosed location, complete with
shotgun gallery.

The Environmental Conservation Room, still empty.

The Supreme Court's Gift Shop, where you can buy an election.

The Airport Men's Room, where you can meet some of your favorite Republican Senators

The 'Decider Room' complete with dart board, Magic 8-ball, Ouija board, dice, coins, and straws.

The museum will also have an electron microscope to help you locate the President's accomplishments.






In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: joe brennan

Jim, Here is my prediction from an earlier post:

I will say that times will continue to be tough, but we are not heading for a depression. We will see a turn around by the 3rd quarter of 2009 and if everyone keeps their heads we shall pull out of it just fine. The panic is caused by emotion and emotion has no place in business or the market. The key is to buy low and sell high and emotion takes over and people panic and dump their assets at very low prices. We intent to look for the best stocks at this time and buy, buy, buy.


In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Good stuff Joe--I hope you are right about the market.

Happy New Year.

Jim

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Posted By: joe brennan

Jim, Happy New Year to you also.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

"Left or right if you are wishing for the American president to fail you are wishing for America to fail and you are not a good American.

Period"

Hilarious post -- no doubt coming from someone who laughed when Bush had two shoes thrown at him.

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Hey Jeff follow the link and read my post in this usenet thread from 12/15 and then you can issue me a public apology.

http://tinyurl.com/7cjx37

just in case you don't feel like clicking the above link here is exactly what I wrote about the shoe thrower.

"Okay...Bush screwed up the exit plan for this war for sure...we prolly
never should have gone in there to begin with, but it's a bit ironic
for a journalist to throw shoes at his liberator.

At least he can write about it without fear of going to the torture
chamber."

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Dan, that's good to know. Public apology? Good luck.

Would you agree that the great majority of liberals laughed their asses off at the shoe throwing incident? Are you suggesting that all of those millions of people who voted Democratic are not good Americans because they laughed at Bush?

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Well if not an apology at least you could admit you were wrong about me???

Maybe not. It's easy to assume things about people you only know from the internet...and there's a big difference between laughing at Bush and rooting for him to fail and I don't deny that there are liberals who openly rooted for Bush to fail. I was not one of them. I'm an American first and Democrat second. I never have and never will wish failure for America.

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Posted By: Frank L.

Hello

I am fairly new to the forum. I am happy that we have both sides of the political spectrum represented.

To lay it out there, I am a primary care physician north of the Tampa Bay Area. I have collected cards since about 1971. I got into prewar in the 1980's. I am conservative but understand points on both sides.

I believe it is good to have opposing sides give their opinion so that we may come somewhere in the middle. I do not hope Obama fails, but I hope he is a centerist. I believe extremism left will certainly hurt this country. I also believe as would most conservatives, right extremism is also not good.

This thread makes me think of my office. My partner is hard left. We may disagree about alot of things, but we are in the end, friends and still go for the good.

It looks like this forum is certainly like that, alot of friends, though alot of differing opinion.

This is a very interesting thread by Bruce. What holds for us, who really knows?

I hope it is an oportunity to buy more stuff I have always wanted.


Sincerely

Frank L.

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Posted By: Jason

Jim must be pretty flexible to get his head that far up his ass.

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Posted By: Matthew Pime

Hey Guys, Happy New Year. I've been a lurker for what seems like a thousand years. Thanks in advance for allowing me to join the conversation. I'd like to share my viewpoint on what I feel is a crucial thread and respectable town forum.

Without a doubt, we are amidst a very unique geo-political and geo-economic time. Fear is rampant worldwide. Here in the US, discomfort is at an all time high.
As a registered investment advisor and FINRA appointed Registered Principal, I am on the frontlines of the economy. Fortunately, we're independently affiliated with the most solvent insurance based firm in the business. However, the news isn't good for most and will likely continue in some fashion until 2011, possibly all the way towards 2015. Here's why-

1. Investments have either evaporated (this time affecting many upper 2%'s due to investments in derivatives and Bernie Madoff fallout) or have dropped between 30-50% on average within the equity markets over the past year.

2. Nationwide leveraging in both corporate and personal capacities. Capitulation is likely to occur between 2010 and 2011. Corporations will be unable to refinance debt obligations and millions of homeowners will see their option-arm mortgages implode.

3. TARP money is likely to be ill-appropriated. Some executive players (i.e. Krause with Merrill Lynch) will be teflon, while others may be indicted. This will again create fear and an unwillingness to trust Wall Street as we know it. Recently, FOX News sued the government on a 'freedom of information act' claim. They petitioned for a public record accounting of these monies. So far, no dice. It's not looking good at this point. The average taxpayer is likely to be individually responsible for $5k-10k of their income to fund these mysterious bailouts.

4. Bernie Madoff is essentially the Jesse James of investments; the crook of all crooks. He is responsible for a generational wealth gap that in most cases in unrecoverable. The headlines alone are enough to discourage most of the nation from investing heavily in the equity markets. Hedge funds will likely shrink in number once redemptions are possible. They will have to unravel their portfolios, which may possibly produce other ponzi-schemes.

5. There will be a new generation of broke senior citizens like we've never seen before. Even when the equity markets were performing well, there was concern that most boomers hadn't saved enough and were over-extended. Fast forward several years and you'll find that they are leveraged to the hilt and whatever they had saved has lost a dramatic amount of principal.

Imagine a 55 year old with a $500k 401k balance who wants to retire and take distribution by age 70. If the investor acheives a 6% annual return, he will have $1.275 million when he needs to turn it into income. Based on a 6% distribution rate, that equates to approximately $72,500 of lifetime income. However, the reality is an absolute 'double negative.' First of all, investments are likely to either have flat or dismal returns over that time horizon. Combine that with higher income needs and the fact that people are living longer than ever...and you've got a serious wealth crisis amongst the elderly. They will essentially run out of money because their distributions will outpace their returns.

So....Bruce isn't that far off on his predictions.

I do see a silver lining and ultimate rebirth of the economic system when this has all flushed out. It will likely create a tremendous bull market for those who participate and more responsibility through proper regulation.

Now...when it comes to cards (whew!!), protected wealth will likely support pricing because the market for premium examples is thinly traded. People like Bruce and myself will hopefully be able to participate in fractional bargains because we see value. High end cards are truly tangible and in most cases have better name recognition and headline capacity than most fine art and other high end collectables. (antique furniture, non-gold coins and others)

I've been buying nice cards lately between $400 and $5000 at deep discounts to their respective peaks. I've participated for over 20 years because it is a sentimental investment, and a valuable part of my financial portfolio. From my perspective, Generation X'ers like myself will assimilate better towards fine art of the Mantle,Mays,Cobb,Ruth genre than Picasso,Matisse,Hockney kind of old.

The 'right' cards will continue to rise in value due to simple supply and demand during these tough times. Bottom feeders will pick up discounts and their will be a flight to quality within all portfolio fundamentals.

Be safe in 2009 and hug your loved ones. They are your most prized possessions.

Hopefully, I'll have time to contribute in the coming year.

Best,
Matt

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Posted By: David Atkatz

"High end cards are truly tangible and in most cases have better name recognition and headline capacity than most fine art and other high end collectables."

Absolute poppycock.

"However, the news isn't good for most and will likely continue in some fashion until 2011, possibly all the way towards 2015."

Nonsense again.

"Bernie Madoff is essentially the Jesse James of investments; the crook of all crooks. He is responsible for a generational wealth gap that in most cases in unrecoverable. The headlines alone are enough to discourage most of the nation from investing heavily in the equity markets."

If "most of the nation" will be discouraged from investing in plans that promise a 20% return almost guaranteed, good. As W.C. Fields so aptly put it, "You can't cheat an honest man."

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Posted By: Sean C

It's very interesting to see people putting their party before their country, yet continuing to think that they are good Americans. Guess that Kool-Aid is tough to get out of the system.



During the Bush years, I don't think many liberals actively wanted W to fail; we were just embarrassed at how much of an abysmal failure he was and angry over the repeated denials, spin, and outright lies made by his administration. History will not be kind to him, nor to those that enabled and supported him.

As for the shoe throwing; the American in me was appalled and angered that something like that could happen to our sitting president. The personality in me was disappointed that they didn't hit, and even more disappointed in W's response to the attack, which showed how utterly clueless he really is.