Production Estimates / Print Run Archive

[dragonwagon9080]

I need help identifying this set #. I original thought it was 06722, but after a closer review and not finding any additional set above 6483, I doubt it is a 7. 06?22 - it has to be a 0, 1,2,3, or 4. It doesn't look like a 1,3, or 4 to me. So is it a 2 or a 0?

https://www.worthpoint.com/worthoped...ete-1920081063

[JUrsaner]

Originally Posted by dragonwagon9080

I need help identifying this set #. I original thought it was 06722, but after a closer review and not finding any additional set above 6483, I doubt it is a 7. 06?22 - it has to be a 0, 1,2,3, or 4. It doesn't look like a 1,3, or 4 to me. So is it a 2 or a 0?

https://www.worthpoint.com/worthoped...ete-1920081063

Kinda just looks like another 2, but faded

[Snowman]

I'm digging up this old thread because I'm interested in building a predictive statistical model, or econometrics type model, to estimate total print runs of vintage sets. It should be doable if I have a couple of known, or semi-known, sets that I can start with. I'll have to control for multiple factors, but I think it should be doable using pop report data as long as I can build a separate ensemble model that predicts the likelihood of a card being submitted in the first place (very doable, as the likelihood of a card being submitted for grading depends on demand and survival, as well as likelihoods of resubmission). From there, I should be able to estimate total print runs that at least pass the smell test.

Has any progress been made on this project in recent years?

[deweyinthehall]

In 1980, some Topps wax packs contained Hit to Win game cards - based upon the availability of wrappers bearing the Hit to Win ad versus the common "15 cards" statement, I think it's safe to say that less than half of the 1980 wax packs contained game cards - quite possibly a lot less.

Card backs indicate a total of 8875 prizes and that there were 2 prizes per 1000 cards.

Check my math, but this means that there was 1 prize per 500 game cards, and so there had to have been 4,437,500 game cards - right?

If so, let's assume that perhaps 4.4 million were pack inserted - no purchase was necessary, so some would have been held back for people who mailed in for one. This equates to 4.4 million packs, or 66 million cards.

With 726 cards, this comes out to roughly 90,909 of each card.

Because less than half the packs contained game cards lets double that and add some to come out with 250,000 of each card in wax packs.

Does this sound about right? Adding cards for cello, super cello, vending, rack, K-Mart and Squirt packaging, what might this mean for a total?

Do we have any idea if there was a standard ratio of how many wax packs were produced for each rack or cello?

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by deweyinthehall

In 1980, some Topps wax packs contained Hit to Win game cards - based upon the availability of wrappers bearing the Hit to Win ad versus the common "15 cards" statement, I think it's safe to say that less than half of the 1980 wax packs contained game cards - quite possibly a lot less.

Card backs indicate a total of 8875 prizes and that there were 2 prizes per 1000 cards.

Check my math, but this means that there was 1 prize per 500 game cards, and so there had to have been 4,437,500 game cards - right?

If so, let's assume that perhaps 4.4 million were pack inserted - no purchase was necessary, so some would have been held back for people who mailed in for one. This equates to 4.4 million packs, or 66 million cards.

With 726 cards, this comes out to roughly 90,909 of each card.

Because less than half the packs contained game cards lets double that and add some to come out with 250,000 of each card in wax packs.

Does this sound about right? Adding cards for cello, super cello, vending, rack, K-Mart and Squirt packaging, what might this mean for a total?

Do we have any idea if there was a standard ratio of how many wax packs were produced for each rack or cello?

The only problem with your count is there were also vending cases, rack packs and cello packs and I don't think those game cards were in any of those options. Thus the # you have can't be accurate

[deweyinthehall]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

The only problem with your count is there were also vending cases, rack packs and cello packs and I don't think those game cards were in any of those options. Thus the # you have can't be accurate

Which count? Honestly curious.

Even if we calculate the same number of both varieties of wax (with game cards and without) - which just doesn't seem supported by the evidence - we're looking at a total of between 180-200K of each card in wax alone.

And yes - game cards were only in wax. In addition to the cellos and rack and vending, there were super cellos, mini K-mart and Quirt packs, and those 80-card blister packs they did that year.

I have a distinct memory that in their 1980 "Year in Pictures" issue, Life had an image of the 1980 George Brett with a statement of how many Topps printed - I may have that issue and will dig for it.

[CA Esq]

I am surprised 1988 Score glossy is not more sought after.