How much money is out there?

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Posted By: ted

I just want to be #1 and #100.... the answer to how much money is out there is very simple: A LOT.

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Posted By: anonymoushunterdude

..is that they provide one to experience the "thrill of the hunt",
an age old primal instinct. Maybe that's why most women (nesters) don't get why we men (hunter/gatherers) enjoy picking through card shows and surfing high and low on the internet for our rare and treasured game.

As much as I love my bloated collection of cards, I love the hunt even more.

Now if I could just get on a "catch and release program" I'd be OK.

....and don't forget the addictive nature of card collecting.. that certainly adds fuel to the fire IMO.

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Posted By: Paul

Wow! My first 100 entry thread.

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Posted By: DJ

Interesting how this thread grew. A couple things.

1) This thread is at over 100. What was the largest thread count (sounds like I'm talking about expensive bed sheets) any of you can remember?

2) In 1987, I thought about purchasing unscratched lottery tickets. What do you think of that? Best of all, you can slab them...but the down side is that scratched ones could probably be covered up with some fancy black thick marker which will be like those who take a black marker to the edges of Mayo's or 1971 Topps cards.

3) Are we talking about rare video game cartridges in sealed form? What will an 'Excitebike' be worth in twenty years? Since we are talking about systems of the late eighties, has anyone seen where original Atari or Intellevision games in unopened packages bringing any $$ in the open or auction market?

This has been a great thread. I don't agree with all of you...I actually think some of you need to be drug tested and I think that's the beauty of this forum.

DJ

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Posted By: John

Rhett;

I here what your saying but I will say this once again rarity has very little to do with price. There are hundreds of one-of-a-kind items out there. But there is something as being to rare. If there are only one or 2 examples of something there is not enough supply to fill the demand.

Like I said before Leon’s Kelly card is much more rare than any T206 Wagner but I will bet the farm even a beat up Wagner will go for more on the open market than the Kelly would go for. It’s sad yes, but there is something to be said for popularity.

People will always pay top dollar for T206’s or 1952 Topps because they are able to collect them. If I want to start E107’s tomorrow I’m screwed unless I roll Scott B. in the parking lot of a show.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Homer Simpson said it best, "My house if full of valuable worthless junk."

Jay

I like to sit outside drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: barrysloate

And Homer was also the one who was going through the five-cents-each junk box at a flea market and found Superman #1, a copy of the Declaration of Independence, a sheet of upside-down jenny airmail stamps- and passed on them all. Remember that episode?

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Posted By: leon

Don't dis on my Kelly I agree that a T206 Wagner might be worth more but probably not a beat to sh** one. Yes, a nice 2 would be, but probably not a ragged out one...but then again when was the last time you saw a Kelly FBH sold publicly? regards

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

You can NEVER go wrong if you always Remember the mantra...

which also happens to be a palindrome to make it EASIER to remember:

CWYWC

Collect What YOU Wanna Collect!!!!!!!

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Posted By: Texas Ted

He was the cowboy on TV years ago with the business card that said: "HAVE GUN, WILL TRAVEL".

Texas Ted
Starting my third attempt at a second childhood.

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Posted By: andy becker

barry-
what were people paying ten years ago for cards/memorabilia? weren't THOSE record prices too? i understand the business cycle....but haven't prices escalated since...well, since day one??
when was the last "card" market correction? the copeland sale? the error boom of the 1980's?
i'm asking these questions, frankly, because to me you sound like alan greenspan...i'm just waiting for "irrational exuberance" to be posted

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Posted By: Richard Masson

But the last major correction in vintage cards was 1988-91 or thereabouts. Prices declined, but supply dried up. The Copeland auction was during that time (in fact the run up in prices can probably be partially attributed to his aggressive purchasing).

Absent the slabbing phenomenae, 1950s and 1960s cards are still in a funk. Nice VG-EX cards can be had relatively cheaply. Clean Topps sets from the era are very affordable. There is plenty of product to meet collector demand.

A correction in vintage prices is inevitable at some point, but it will effect lower grade and readily available material (think T cards and common E cards). Very high grade and very rare stuff won't trade at lower prices, unless the owner is a distressed seller.

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Posted By: john/z28jd

The only problem with Richards thought and Jay Behrens mentioned this before is that you dont know how many of these pre-ww1 cards will be lost due to attrition.Theres literally thousands of them in the mail each day that have a chance to get lost,cards could get thrown out by mistake,lost during natural disasters or fires,or even buried with a collector who cherished the cards his whole life.They havent made these cards for over 85 years so they arent getting any more common obviously.Thanks in part to the popularity of ebay the chances of something getting attritionized(i dont think thats a word) is even greater than just 5 years ago

We dont expect this predicted downtime anytime within the next couple years so even 10 years down the road if the amount of collectors drops the supply will inevitably be lower anyway so the prices wont be as affected.

I think cards will always hold some sort of significant value just because of the players on there.People root for certain teams and will want to collect older cards,hall of famers and high grades(not graded per se) will always have value.All the players tho have stats to back them up and history behind them.Plus theres always people who will collect guys from their hometown,relatives or people with the same last name,even if they dont actually collect the sets.

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Posted By: Richard Masson

is the paper drives during world war II. Comics printed by the hundreds of thousands were tossed resulting in great scarcity today. Most key books from the 1930s have fewer than 100 surviving copies. Baseball cards fall into the same category, although less so.

I also think you are greatly overestimating the potential attrition today. Virtually all the supply is now above ground. Everyone knows that old baseball cards are worth something and shouldn't be thrown away. Finds like the Oregon find and the recent Zeenut cache are becoming increasingly rare. Except for Tango Eggs Jennings, supply is what it is.

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Posted By: Richard Lloyd

Thanks for saying ATTRITION!!! I had said this about 60 posts ago and the supply of cards will drop.. It has to!!. obviously mail, fire, lost or stolen..ect...If you think its hard finding certin cards NOW just think 10-20 years from now.. I try to get'em while I can!!!
the values will hold and grow...at what rate!?? nobody knows..but past history strongly says they will grow..

Best

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Posted By: andy becker

i agree with you richard. but i think the "copeland correction" was just that....a correction on very high end, highly publicized material.

regarding the decrease in 50's and 60's material...i think that's ebay. soooooo much more product became available...and i think you are correct, it's still undervalued.

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Posted By: john/z28jd

While im sure there isnt many cards getting throw out by people who dont know the worth,that isnt what i meant by thrown out.All you need is a card getting put in the wrong place near something thats going to be thrown out and its gone.Theres tons of other ways,little kids getting their hands on them,pets,ex-wives throwing them out to spite their husband.Theres no gaurd in place to watch every single pre-ww1 baseball card so things happen.I was just giving broad examples,but i couldve said cards lost during moving from house to house or dealers losing cards going from stores to shows.

I think the main culprit is the thousands of cards that are in the mail each week.Even if an average of one or 2 cards got lost a day from any of these things youre eventually going to notice a lower supply which will in turn make up for less collectors should there even be less collectors.I did say 10 years from now as my example.Unless theres a HUGE collection thats documented lost to a fire/natural disaster then you wont notice this lower supply happen anytime soon.

Which leads me to the main point, attrition is inevitable no matter what you do.Every person isnt careful with cards and not every person who inherits cards knows what they have or takes care of them.Just because we know cards values doesnt mean some person is going to see an old piece of cardboard with a cartoon drawing of a baseball player they never heard of and assume its worth something

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Posted By: John

Leon, I would never rag on your Kelly. I would take your Kelly over a Wagner any day. This from a guy who’s easily a T206 junkie. I also was referring too the recent 2 it was pretty beat. There I said it, oh that’s right I went there bring it on Riggins!

P.S. Don’t ever sell your Kelly. That’s all I need is yet another card I have drooled over being sold that I cant afford. Between the last few auctions I’m getting depressed.

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Posted By: Anonymous

Yes, attrition will occur but we are talking about a very low percentage. 20, 30 years from now the collectors who are 40-70 are going to pass away to the big diamond in the sky. Their heirs are going to sell the cards at "whatever price" they can get. This has never happened to a large segment of the collecting populace. In the 80's, 90's, 00's we've had new generations of collectors come in and compete for the relative stable amount of vintage cards. We've not had a similar drop off mainly because a lot less people born between 1900-1930 collected cards. This will change in the future. It's nothing we'll notice for a while, but it will happen and unless there is a similar influx of new collectors (who are in diapers now) there could be a glut of cards.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

I feel that the lower and mid-grade stuff will hold its value better than the superhighgrade slabby stuff. The more an item costs the thinner the market for it. VG T206 HOFers may not set records but they don't decline much either because so many people pick them to start with. One of the examples up there in this thread was someone who ate **** on a couple of slabbed high grade PSA T206 cards. Doesn't surprise me. The market for those is basically the few out there who are doing the set registry thing. If they don't happen to want the card, pop goes the weasel. I decided a long time ago to buy 10 vg-ex HOFers instead of one nm-mt one and I've never looked back.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Truth is none of us know for sure what the future will bring regarding price levels on vintage cards. We're just guessing- educated guesses to be sure- but who can predict the unknown. Could anyone predict terrorists could take down the twin towers? Nobody did, but it happened. Vintage cards are extremely popular right now but there are numerous signs that our economy isn't in great shape. It's quite possible people will find other priorities than baseball cards in tougher times. Nothing's a sure thing, not even a Four Base Hits of Kelly or a 1914 Babe Ruth. They will always be great rarities, but no guarantee they will always be worth equal or more than what they are today.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

yes, but not anyone working for dubya

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Posted By: Anonymous

i'm an old time collector back into the hobby so here's a thought....has the pro grading services driven the prices up to the levels ,for all cards,they presently are.at fort washington mid grade t206 hof sold for 50%-75% graded as opposed to raw.many buy raw get ir graded then jack up the price.great for short term profit but what happens 10-20 years down the road.will all 3 of the grading companies exist then?what happens if psa closes house for some reason..perhaps a grading scandal on a very high end card etc.what happens to the inflated graded card prices for psa's?

i know its not prewar but i recently saw a 1971 munson psa 9 for$4000.commons $75-100.thats a bubble waiting to burst.

i collected t-cards back in the 80's and i miss the days of buying hof's in nice shape for less then $100.

a newbies thought.
scott

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Posted By: john/z28jd

I think the main thing is what Barry said,that you cant predict what will happen,altho attrition is a safe bet

So basically collecting what you want is the way to go.I collect only so as soon as i have a card it has no monetary value as far as im concerned.I'll worry about value if i ever have to sell the cards


You never know,some billionaire who collected cards as a kid and always wanted old cards might decide that hes going to buy as much as possible,then the actual collectors are all screwed

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Posted By: Bob Marquette

One thing I have noticed is a steady increase in the number of what I call "long term collectors," by that I mean guys who are buying up caramel and tobacco cards for their own personal collections and they never again see the light of day, or at least won't for many, many years. You used to see more buying of vintage cards and then a couple of years later those cards were being sold as the buyer grew tired of them. I don't see that much anymore. You see "flipping," guys buying low and selling high for a profit, but many of these people are collectors, plowing their profits back in to more cards, rather than using the profit to buy non-card related items.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Bob- I think you will still see a number of these collectors who say they will never sell their vintage cards part with them eventually. Right now it does seem like they are all being socked away, but that could change. Among the positive signs in today's market is that there are a tremendous number of buyers and sellers. It's not tipped in anybody's favor. There is tons of stuff out there and no shortage of takers. That's a fluid market. But down the road the balance may shift one way or the other.

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Posted By: Josh

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050505/en_nm/arts_auction_dc

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Storing a statue in a vault for eighty years is not my idea of the way to enjoy 27+ million dollars of value.

Lets see .... first Id buy - a hot pastrami sandwich with a good pickle and a cold beer. Then another. Then Id skip the pickle and sandwich.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Considering the staute was made in the 20s, that means whoever owned most likley was the original owner, didn't pay much for it and say unnoticed until recently. Too bad old farm equipment isn't like that. My family would be rich, rather than poor farmers.

Jay

I like to sit outside drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

Anyone who wants my SGC 92 can have it for $1,000 or straight up for a vg or better Cobb T205-T206 (any one, SGC slabbed). I'll even throw in the shipping! Up hill, both ways Honestly, these set registry guys are a mite too cookoo for me.

I am generally one of those "bury it with me" types but I can be tempted by a good enough offer, especially if I have another item on the radar screen that I want even more. One such occasion happened recently; I ended up parting with a very prized card to pay for another one that I wanted more. That rarely happens, though.

I'm curious: do you mentally divide your collection (like kids do) into trading cards and keepers? I know I do.

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Posted By: DJ

Goodness this is good therapy.

I have to admit, I mentally divide my collection into like three groups.

1) Emergency Group. The cards I have to sell quickly in case of an emergency.

2) The College Fund. Cards I will probably sell in ten years for my kids college. The kid's in trouble. Can you say Community College at this rate?

3) Stuff I will be buried with. Please, no one attempt to dig me up. That's simply wrong and 'gross'.

DJ

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Posted By: john/z28jd

I got 3 groups of cards too
1-cards i dont want to sell
2-cards i wont sell
3-cards that are permanently off the market

Most of my cards are in group 2 till i retire which at this rate will be 2055,then they either will go in group 1 or 3 depending on how many baseball games and trips to cooperstown i plan on making

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Posted By: Julie

my bod. The University of California Medical School at San Francisco is going to mess with it.

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Posted By: Scott Forrest

thanks for that visual.

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Posted By: vetekbob

What a wonderful thread this is. It has certainly gotten the synaptic juices flowing for sure. If this thread keeps going like it is we will have to come out with a two volume dvd disc set lol not that that would be a bad thing mind you There is one thing that I have noticed that hasnt been brought to light as it were and if it has then I have missed it and my appologies and that is yes there is monetary value in pre-war cards today whether you are a diehard collector,an investor without real personal attachment or what have you but to me the most important aspect in what we call the hobby of card collecting is the "historical record" of life as we knew it then as the collective group we call the human race.
Yes I am a diehard collector of cards and yes I collect them for the other reason as well howbeit to a much smaller scale and intent but I also collect cards for the legacy that passed before me and one that in whatever small way I was a part of when I have passed this earth. We know what we know about baseballs history and all that that entails because people like each one of us shared a passion not only for the game of baseball but even more so a passion for life and all the little nuances of day to day life back then and I feel that it is still with us today in collecting pieces of the past like we do.
Each one of us as individuals and as collectors collectively are helping to pass on to the next generation a piece of ourselves in who we were, what we cared about, what we believed in, and what we stood for not just about the game of baseball but about society as a whole and its driving force in each of our lives and to me that is a legacy that means so much more to me than how much I may have paid for a card, or whatever collectible I saved.
Maybe some of us collect cards and or other collectibles because to us they represent a time when life didnt seem so robotic and chaotic and the game baseball was so much more than just a game, it represented and in some small miniscule way helped to define the social isms that we are still growing in and working toward today as a collective body of people. Baseball cards to me personally represent a portal in time that someone before me saved and in looking at the card or cards I can travel back in time in my mind even if for a moment and smile in wonderment inside myself wondering what it would be like to have seen, talked with, or played with the legacies of our past, wondering what little tidbit or wisdom they might would share with me if they could.
I have been somewhat concerned about the increasing prices of cards and what that may mean for me as a collector but not "solely" in the sense of wanting to complete a certain set but rather my concern is what are we losing inside ourselves and as collectors if we allow ourselves to go blind to just the dollars paid and or the artistry of a card or cards as we all can fall prey to at times. To me, babseball in its true essence embodies the heart and soul of a person striving to do their best for themselves and at the same time working together for a common goal.
I think it is pertinent and prudent to ask the question that started this thread in the first place for I feel it ask each one of us to look within as to what is truly important in our lives and causes us to ask ourselves, what kind of legacy are we leaving for the next generation that may find one of our cherished cards and not know what it truly meant when baseball was more than a nine inning game and life was more than just how much money players made back then or the prices each of us paid for our cards.
Robert


basicgreatguy@hotmail.com

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Posted By: Josh K.

John (I think) spoke above about attrition and the gradual decline in available cards as they are lost, destroyed, etc. Well, count me as a believer - I am living the nightmare - an e98 cy young that I was shipping to SGC has been missing for almost a month (so to be clear, SGC did not lose the card, it was never delivered).