Card prices skyrocketing

[MattyC]

I think this quote below from an article in CNN on the stock fiasco is germane:

"To me, it's probable that people are pushing retail investors in one way or another when they have undisclosed positions that are being advantaged by those actions," said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of financial reform group Better Markets. "That's going to be classic market manipulation, and I don't have any doubt that's going on."

This dynamic is very much in play in the unregulated sportscard market.

Of course there is true underlying demand with cards, and there are plenty of rarer/scarce cards that are not rising artificially— just like some healthy companies' stocks deservedly rise.

Yet the internet and social media have made it all too easy for self-styled card investment gurus to virally direct sheep/lemmings to items hyped as "undervalued," while not disclosing they own many examples of said item-- nor do the gurus disclose that they are selling their examples as the prices rise, due to their actions influencing their followers.

This can be seen coming from miles away. And it is best done with certain types of cards— ones that have demand, but are easy to buy up in bulk and not too expensive to grab at the start.

And once the prices rise, "Fear Of Missing Out" kicks in amongst collectors across the board who want to grab items they have had their eyes on before those items, too, rise-- which of course makes the items rise.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/inves...ion/index.html

[packs]

Maybe this is just my own opinion but we've all been watching this happen slowly over a very long period of time. There is no doubt that the prices are where they're at because of all the shill bidding that enabled this situation to become a reality. It is almost impossible to gauge the actual market value of anything because so much of the price point is set by eBay sales that are either inflated by self-bidding or artificial in that the card didn't actually sell.

I don't feel it's an overnight phenomenon or really even related to the pandemic. This board has had thread after thread about what some sellers are doing and I feel as though this is the culmination of a shill-ridden hobby rather than the result of pandemic panic buying.

It can be stopped of course. But it would mean sacrificing "stuff". A seller has something you want, you know you're bidding against yourself if you bid on their material, and it's going to take the hobby's collective will power to instead let the stuff go. Dealers who are bad for the hobby will only exit the hobby when there's no more business for them.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by packs

Maybe this is just my own opinion but we've all been watching this happen slowly over a very long period of time. There is no doubt that the prices are where they're at because of all the shill bidding that enabled this situation to become a reality. It is almost impossible to gauge the actual market value of anything because so much of the price point is set by eBay sales that are either inflated by self-bidding or artificial in that the card didn't actually sell.

I don't feel it's an overnight phenomenon or really even related to the pandemic. This board has had thread after thread about what some sellers are doing and I feel as though this is the culmination of a shill-ridden hobby rather than the result of pandemic panic buying.

It can be stopped of course. But it would mean sacrificing "stuff". A seller has something you want, you know you're bidding against yourself if you bid on their material, and it's going to take the hobby's collective will power to instead let the stuff go. Dealers who are bad for the hobby will only exit the hobby when there's no more business for them.

This is spot on!

[packs]

Guys, I implore you, forego the stuff.

[Johnny630]

Anyone know if you can buy a card in auction and pay for it by sending them other cards and just have them relist the card for you? I have a feeling this could be happening but I have no idea if that’s allowed?
I guess that would be like pawning something for your win idk

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Sounds crazy but I guess I'd consider it if it were worked out ahead of time.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by packs

Guys, I implore you, forego the stuff.

Why?

[packs]

No I’m not suggesting every auction is shill bidding. I’m suggesting prices have been rising over time in a general sense due to it. When a high price is set but the card doesn’t actually sell or is artificially bid up it can still set a benchmark for the next sale. It’s been a topic on the board a lot and I think could be a contributor.

[Exhibitman]

I disagree. Prices fell hard in 2007-2009 and rebounded gradually for several years. It has picked up momentum the last few years and now we are in a full boom. It isn't shilling across this huge swath of issues and cards, it is rebounding prices combined with boredom and restricted competing entertainment spending options. You know what else is way up? Sales of model paints and craft supplies, and pet adoptions. People are bored and have money available.

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by packs

No I’m not suggesting every auction is shill bidding. I’m suggesting prices have been rising over time in a general sense due to it. When a high price is set but the card doesn’t actually sell or is artificially bid up it can still set a benchmark for the next sale. It’s been a topic on the board a lot and I think could be a contributor.

When I try to determine the current market for a card, I look at completed sale prices. I use VCP, but all of the other primary sources also look at completed sales transactions. I am not sure why you think a listing price impacts the market. I see tons of cards sitting on Ebay for crazy prices. they are not taken into account in sales data.

[japhi]

Cards are just a small part of a gigantic asset bubble. There seems to be unlimited availability to capital. Bitcoin, Real Estate, classic cars, boats, equities, wine/spirits. Startups with questionable futures raising 100's of millions of dollars. Sure there are new collectors, and this surge will be good for the hobby long term, but this is more about money needing a place to land.

This is the net result of the Fed pumping trillions into the economy. Depending on what you feel about monetary policy, MMT, this can either go on forever or it will come crashing down. Things that I think need to be considered; these corrections seem to be getting worse with each event. 2008 was worse the 2000, 2020 was worse (or would have been if not for massive stimulus) then 2008. This recovery is completely debt financed. Unemployment is 2.5x what it was pre pandemic, and would be 15% + without massive stimulus.

I get FOMO and I think the best stuff will always do well, but when this thing pops it is going to be legendary. I just can't believe that the US can run 2T plus annual deficits forever. When the music stops all this new money will evaporate faster then it arrived. Hard to predict top and bottom on these events but they always end the same way.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by japhi

Cards are just a small part of a gigantic asset bubble. There seems to be unlimited availability to capital. Bitcoin, Real Estate, classic cars, boats, equities, wine/spirits. Startups with questionable futures raising 100's of millions of dollars. Sure there are new collectors, and this surge will be good for the hobby long term, but this is more about money needing a place to land.

This is the net result of the Fed pumping trillions into the economy. Depending on what you feel about monetary policy, MMT, this can either go on forever or it will come crashing down. Things that I think need to be considered; these corrections seem to be getting worse with each event. 2008 was worse the 2000, 2020 was worse (or would have been if not for massive stimulus) then 2008. This recovery is completely debt financed. Unemployment is 2.5x what it was pre pandemic, and would be 15% + without massive stimulus.

I get FOMO and I think the best stuff will always do well, but when this thing pops it is going to be legendary. I just can't believe that the US can run 2T plus annual deficits forever. When the music stops all this new money will evaporate faster then it arrived. Hard to predict top and bottom on these events but they always end the same way.

It’s easier to spot a bubble than know when it will, if it will, pop. We are in war time deficit levels, but with rates where they are, our level is not as precarious as prior periods when borrow rates were higher. The Fed chartered this course since Greenspan and they knew going in it was a one way ticket, if their dual mandate are max employment and price stability. It’s been either the deal with the devil and the wider wealth gap / social instability that comes from it, or a second Great Depression. And it’s because of their mandate, at this point the only way out, to meet their mandate, is currency devaluation, via asset price reflation and currency race to the bottom. Add fiscal stimulus which we have not been able to pass until last year, and you’re throwing fuel to the fire.

So are we in a bubble- I refer you to Shiller’s bubble checklist and you decide... and if you think we are in one and questioning, when will this pop, another question to ponder is will this pop, because that is equally as important of a wealth preservation question as much as whether we are in a bubble.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by packs

Maybe this is just my own opinion but we've all been watching this happen slowly over a very long period of time. There is no doubt that the prices are where they're at because of all the shill bidding that enabled this situation to become a reality. It is almost impossible to gauge the actual market value of anything because so much of the price point is set by eBay sales that are either inflated by self-bidding or artificial in that the card didn't actually sell.

I don't feel it's an overnight phenomenon or really even related to the pandemic. This board has had thread after thread about what some sellers are doing and I feel as though this is the culmination of a shill-ridden hobby rather than the result of pandemic panic buying.

It can be stopped of course. But it would mean sacrificing "stuff". A seller has something you want, you know you're bidding against yourself if you bid on their material, and it's going to take the hobby's collective will power to instead let the stuff go. Dealers who are bad for the hobby will only exit the hobby when there's no more business for them.

You think the answer to rising prices is shill bidding? Did the dude who paid $5.2 for the Mantle 9 get shilled? The dude who just bought a Bird/Magic 10 for $720k on Collectable was shill bid? That’s the simple explanation for rising prices?

Is there shill bidding in this hobby? Yes. Are there people paying crazy prices? Yes. Is that the explanation? I don’t believe so. There’s just a ton of new money in the hobby; that’s the simple explanation.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by MattyC

And once the prices rise, "Fear Of Missing Out" kicks in amongst collectors across the board who want to grab items they have had their eyes on before those items, too, rise-- which of course makes the items rise.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/inves...ion/index.html

This is the biggest thing, and has certainly motivated my past few purchases. On top of that it's made me realize what I can put off buying and what I can't. For example I got wind of an Aaron signing last year a little late, missed an opportunity to get my 54 Topps signed by him. Not going to even bother pricing one at the moment with his prices skyrocketing due to his unfortunate passing.

I still think about some of the deals I've passed up. Especially the summer of 2019, before the Covid boom as I was just getting back into the hobby. Live and learn I guess but it still stings.